MLB Prospect Watch

Prospect Potent Potables - Alonso, Vitters, Mendez

• Yonder Alonso wasn't going to be your typical power-hitting first baseman in any park, and certainly won't be in PetCo Park, but as Bill Center of The San Diego Union-Tribune points out, the spaciousness of the outfield in the Padres home park should play right into Alonso's line-drive hitting strength.
• Of the top-10 picks in the 2007 draft, only two - 3B Josh Vitters and P Casey Weathers - have yet to reach the majors, points out Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, who also notes that both are now with the Cubs and that this could be the year for Vitters to make the jump.
• Roman Mendez has been with two organizations and has had up and down years, but as Mike Newman points out for FanGraphs.com, Mendez has re-established himself as a legitimate pitching prospects in the Rangers organization with a strong 2011 campaign, bouncing back from a poor 2010 season.

More Opinions on Rizzo/Cashner Trade

Yesterday's trade between the the Cubs and Padres is getting mixed reviews.

• Baseball America has their usual full player scouting reports, but doesn't formulate too much of an opinion.  
• Paul Swydan of FanGraphs.com makes the case that the acquisition of Andrew Cashner makes the Padres better in three ways, but the entire argument seems a stretch to me.  One of his reasons, that the addition of Cashner to the Padres bullpen removes the temptation of using pitching prospects Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland, or Robbie Erlin in a relief role to start the year, may be true, but it is a completely secondary effect of the trade that could have been accomplished without Cashner by simply showing restraint.  And it's certainly no reason to trade a potential starting first baseman.  Fellow FanGraphs.com writer Jason Roberts is on the Cubs side of things, saying that "trading a reliever with injury and control problems for a young, slugging first baseman is almost always a good idea."
• John SIckles thinks Zach Cates has some nice potential, which only adds to the lopsidedness of this trade to the Cubs side.
• Keith Law of ESPN.com thinks the Cubs got a "slight edge" in the deal, going as far as saying that Cashner "could be the next Craig Kimbrel."

Perhaps I'm missing something with Cashner.  He does have a enticing power arm, and could end up being a very effective reliever for the Padres, not just this year but also in the future.  But he's never thrown more than 115 innings in a professional season and has battled wildness throughout his career.  He's essentially a two-pitch pitcher, having never been healthy long enough to effectively develop his change-up.  I don't see him having the repertoire or durability to ever be an effective starter long-term.  He could be a dominant reliever, but I don't see that as enough value for a starting first baseman.  Anthony Rizzo may never be an all-star (he reminds me a lot of Adam LaRoche), but he's still an effective piece.  Opinions are split on him and Yonder Alonso, and one clearly had to be traded, but the value in return could have been higher.

Padres, Cubs Swap Rizzo for Casher and Na

The San Diego Padres unclogged their roadblock at first base, trading prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs for Andrew Casher and Kyung-Min Na, reports ESPNChicago.com and Bill Center of The San Diego Union-Tribune.

Rizzo became expendable after the team acquired Yonder Alonso from the reds in the team's first blockbuster of the off-season.  The acquisition of Rizzo for the Cubs presumably takes them out of the running for Prince Fielder's services.

For the Padres, the fact that they traded Rizzo is not surprising, but the return might be.  Cashner, who no longer qualifies as a prospect or for rookie status, is a power arm that was once one of the more highly touted pitchers in the Cubs organization.  He battled injury last year, however, and has had a history of them throughout his professional career.  He has made more than 11 starts in a season only once, and has never thrown more than 100 1/3 innings in a season.  Corey Brock of MLB.com tweets that the Padres could consider Cashner for a bullpen role, and that may be the best spot for Cashner to have success.

Kyung-Min Na is an athletic 20-year-old center fielder who has yet to play a full season in the minors.  Through 519 minor league plate appearances, he has a .244/.335/.284 line, showing a decent eye at the plate but absolutely no power, and good speed (26 steals) but no idea how to use it (15 caught steals).  His athleticism in center field could be a valuable asset for the Padres in spacious Petco Park, but he's a long way from being able to use it in the majors.

With the likelihood that Na could never make it to the majors, it appears that the Padres were content to trade Rizzo for a potential late inning reliever.  Despite Rizzo's extreme struggles in the majors last year, his value had not dropped to pennies on the dollar, which seems to be what the Padres got in return.

Padres Get Three Prospects From Reds For Latos

The Cincinnati Reds acquired pitcher Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres in exchange for Edison Volquez and a trio of prospects - 1B Yonder Alonso, C Yasmani Grandal, and relief pitcher Brad Boxberger, announced the Reds.  The deal is a steep price for the Reds to pay, but greatly upgrades their pitching staff.

Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeauges.com likes the trade for the Reds, while Mike Axisa of FanGraphs.com thinks the Padres did a nice job getting long-term solutions back at first base and catcher.

Alonso is the Reds top hitting prospect, but was blocked in Cincinnati by Joey Votto.  His role in San Diego remains to be seen, as the Padres traded for 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo last off-season, and this deal could mean Rizzo spends more time in Triple-A this season than originally expected.

Grandal is a fellow first-round pick (along with Alonso), taken in 2010, and split last season between High-A and Double-A, having success at both levels.  He could start back at Double-A this season, or could begin in Triple-A, and either way could see some time in the majors towards the end of the season.

Boxberger was a supplemental first-round pick in 2009.  Taken 43rd overall, he's the lowest drafted of the three prospects traded in this deal.  Boxberger has pitched primarily in relief and saw time in Triple-A last season.  He should compete for a bullpen spot with the Padres this spring.

The real question in this deal is what the Padres are going to do with Alonso.  Rizzo was the centerpiece of last year's big trade and was clearly the Padres first baseman of the future.  Given his struggles in the majors last year, that future could be a year later than expected, but the possibility of Alsonso and Rizzo playing together is slim.  The Reds have already explored the idea of moving Alonso to the outfield, and that switch would be even more difficult at the spacious Petco Park.  It remains to be seen if the Padres will follow this deal up with another deal, moving one of its first baseman for additional pieces.

Reds Updates - Brackman, Cozart, Alonso, Frazier

• The Cincinnati Reds have signed former hometown hero and current minor league free agent Andrew Brackman, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
• Rookie SS Zack Cozart, who had Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow last August, should be healthy enough to compete for the Reds starting SS position this spring, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.
• J.J. Cooper of Baseball America discusses the blocked paths to the majors for most of the Reds hitting prospects, especially Yonder Alonso and Todd Frazier.