There are a number of variables involved in the Cole Hamels situation with the Philadelphia Phillies. It is not as simple as just should they trade him or not, as it is with most of the teams that will be sellers in July.
If they determine they can re-sign him, the Phillies won’t trade him no matter what they’re offered or how many games back they fall.
But with each passing day, there’s an increasing chance that they won’t be able to sign Hamels, at which point the common convention is to call for a trade so the Phillies don’t lose him and get nothing in return.
But the Phillies won’t be getting “nothing” in return. They will be getting two draft picks in return.
Hamels will be a Type A free agent next year, meaning that whatever team that signs Hamels will give the Phillies their first round pick (if its after the 15th pick, or their second round pick if it is before) and the Phillies will get a supplemental first rounder, which last year ranged from picks 32 to 60.
The haul the Phillies get in return for Hamels, if they were to trade him during the season, would have to be better than what they could draft with two extra top-60 picks next June.
This is no small consolation prize. While we know the draft is a crapshoot, the value of an extra first-rounder is large, especially when considering that teams won’t be too willing to trade one of their own current former first-rounders for two months of Hamels. On top of it, the supplemental round has generated some good prospects recently, with Anthony Ranaudo (BOS), Mike Olt (TEX), and perhaps the best pitching prospect in the entire minor leagues, Taijuan Walker (SEA) all coming from the 2010 supplemental first round alone. 2009’s supplemental first round already has three players with major league experience – Rex Brothers (COL), Garrett Richards (LAA), and Brad Boxberger (drafted by CIN, traded to SD).
Of course, there are plenty of picks from this portion of the draft that are already looking like they were bad decisions, so if the Phillies are offered this type of talent that has already been proven at the professional level, they’ll take it over the picks.
But is that kind of talent going to be available?
First, let’s look at who will be interested in Hamels should be become available.
I’m ruling out the entire NL East, just out of principle. The Phillies won’t trade Hamels within their own division, even if it’s just for two months.
The Reds and Pirates are likely looking to add a bat rather than an arm, as we have discussed regarding the possibilities surrounding Carlos Quentin the past few weeks. The Cardinals pitching is what’s keeping them afloat, and they have a few major league-ready pitching prospects they would call up before making a trade.
In the West, the Giants, as usual, will be looking to add offense not pitching. The Dodgers seem like they would be a good fit, especially if they want to give Hamels a taste of the L.A. lifestyle they’ll be trying to sell him this winter, but their starters have been so good this year they’re unlikely to shake things up. They only way they make a move for Hamels is if Ted Lilly, currently out with shoulder inflammation, stays down for an extended period of time. The rest of the division will be selling.
In the AL East, the Yankees could be calling soon if Phil Hughes or Ivan Nova don’t look like the answer, but for the time being, they have a tentatively full rotation. The Orioles may not be ready to sell out for this season, but if they decide to go for it, they could really use an addition like Hamels. The Rays rotation is full, and the Jays was before they lost three-fifth’s of it to injury in a week. They could use Hamels, but are currently in fourth place in the division so their buyer/seller status remains up in the air. I refuse to consider the Red Sox, who despite their record are in last place in the AL East. No last place team should be buying.
The AL Central is totally up for grabs, and Hamels could be the difference in winning that division. The Indians could use a starter with an ERA below 4.00, and are in first place despite not having one. They’re a potential buyer, even though they’re going nowhere in the playoffs. The White Sox have enough offense to at least compete in a playoff series, and Hamels could easily replace perfect-gamer Phil Humber in their rotation. The Tigers have been disappointing, but still sit just two games out of first place and would be the team no one wants to face in the playoffs if they can get in, especially if they can toss a Justin Verlander-Cole Hamels-Max Scherzer trio at someone in a short playoff series. They have called up Jacob Turner to fill Drew Smyly’s spot in their rotation, and his success will determine their interest in Hamels, as will the next month of Rick Porcello. Don’t sleep on the Tigers’ interest.
In the AL West, the Rangers could kick the tires on Hamels due to Derek Holland’s struggles/injury, Scott Feldman’s struggles, and the injury to Alexi Ogando, who was filling in, but they really just need to keep their head above water until Holland comes back and they can get him straightened out. They don’t need Hamels to win the division, and their playoff rotation, with Yu Darvish-Matt Harrison-Colby Lewis-Holland taking the hill is good enough. The Angels could look to replace Jerome Williams in their rotation, but are probably better-suited using Garrett Richards in that role rather than giving up prospects.
The long-story of it is that there just aren’t a ton of spots for Hamels. The only teams that may realistically come knocking are the Dodgers (if Lilly remains out), Orioles, Indians, White Sox, and Tigers.
So, the question remains for the Phillies, can any of these teams beat the value that will come with the two picks they will get if Hamels walks?
Los Angeles Dodgers
If the Dodgers want to make a play for Hamels this season, it’s going to cost them at least two players from their stable of right-handed pitching prospects. The Phillies would likely prefer at least one position player in a deal for Hamels, but the Dodgers simply don’t have it to offer.
The problem is that the Dodgers don’t have any real top-flight, impact talent to offer the Phillies. The closest prospect would be Zach Lee, the Dodgers 2010 first-rounder who is scuffling slightly in the California League this season. He’s a big (6’4”) potential workhorse that projects to sit in the middle of a big league rotation, but does not project to be an ace. Another arm that would interest the Phillies would be Garrett Gould, who is somewhat of a Zach Lee-light, in that he’s a less-dynamic workhorse-type pitcher. Lee and Gould are the best of the bunch that also includes righties Allen Webster and Josh Lindblom and lefties Chris Reed and Chris Withrow, all of whom have potential but come with question marks.
Any of these six players would make a nice addition to the Phillies farm system, but none are appealing enough to make the Phillies give up two draft picks. For the Dodgers to get Hamels, it would likely take at least one of Lee and Gould, and at least one other arm, which may be more than the Dodgers are willing to pay for two months of Hamels.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are the team that stands to gain the most from obtaining Hamels, only because they are the team on whom he would be replacing the worst current performer (either Tommy Hunter, Jake Arrieta or Brian Matusz). With Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy seemingly off the table (Bundy could always be added as a player to be named later if the league allows), the discussion for the Phillies has to begin with Jonathan Schoop, the Orioles minor league player of the year in 2011.
Schoop is struggling this year in his first taste of Double-A, but is still a solid prospect with a bright future on the left side of a major league infield. Behind Schoop, the Orioles have some depth at third base, which has been a point of weakness in the Phillies organization since Scott Rolen.
The Phillies could have interest in third base prospects Nick Delmonico and Jason Esposito. Delmonico was an over-slot 6th round pick last year who is hitting .262/.360/.418 in Low-A this year, but is still far away from the majors and may never hit for power. He’s splitting time between first and second base this year in difference to Esposito. Esposito is a strong defensive third baseman who may not hit at all, and is also still far away from the majors. While both players might interest the Phillies, neither is enough of a sure thing to be a centerpiece of a trade for Hamels.
Xavier Avery, who has spent some time in the majors this season, could fill the void likely to be left by Shane Victorino this off-season, but is also unlikely to ever be a first-devision regular.
When it comes down to it, the Orioles farm system has some intriguing prospects, all of whom come with at least one major red flag. Any trade for Hamels has to start with Jonathan Schoop, and would need additional prospects involved as well. A combination of Schoop and Avery would at least solve a temporary need for the Phillies and give them a potential starter down the road, but it’s still not an impact return, and likely not more than they can get in the draft.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians have one of the weakest farm systems in all of baseball, with little to offer that isn’t already in the majors, and they likely won’t want to break up what is somehow managing to lead the AL Central.
The best player in their system, Francisco Lindor, could only be moved as a player to be named later since he was a 2011 draftee, but he’s still quite far from the majors and is the Indians future at shortstop. After Lindor, it’s a steep drop.
Without giving up one of the young players on their major league roster, namely Lonnie Chisenhall and Nick Hagadone, the Indians won’t be able to be players for Hamels, and they won’t be offering either one of those players, let alone both. I don’t see how the Indians could be players for Hamels, despite their potential desire.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox farm system isn’t much better than the Indians, but they do have a few interesting pieces to offer.
The most interesting piece is Jared Mitchell, who has bounced back from a missed 2010 season and a bad 2011 season to re-establish himself as a legitimate prospect. He strikes out way too much, but his 28.9 % this season is actually down from 33.8 % last year. On the upside, however, Mitchell is walking at a 15.7 % clip this season, so at least he’s reaching base and letting his speed get to work.
His .265/.394/.440 line in Birmingham this season is a full rebound to the prospect the White Sox thought he would be come, and he could help fill the Victorino void in a more substantial way. Mitchell still has his issues, mainly with contact, but he could be a potential impact player for the Phillies, and could be one of the best players available to the Phillies.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are the team that can dream the biggest about adding Hamels to their rotation, as a move like that could mean a World Series.
The Tigers aren’t likely to move Jacob Turner, who is currently in their starting rotation, but the conversation with the Phillies about Hamels would absolutely involve third base prospect Nick Castellanos.
Castellanos is having an amazing season, thanks to an extremely high batting average, but also has average power and will be able to stay at third base. He’s a solid all-around hitter with all-star potential, and would be the best player the Phillies could possibly get in return for Hamels. Castellanos could be in the majors by the end of next season, which means the Phillies could get to see some return for Hamels rather soon.
A Castellanos for Hamels trade woudn’t be quite on the same level as last year’s Zack Wheeler-for-Carlos Beltran heist by the Mets, but it’s along the same lines. Hamels would mean more to the Tigers than Beltran did to the Giants, and Castellanos isn’t quite the prospect Wheeler was this time last year, but it’s still comparable.
As far as the Phillies possibilities go, the best prospects available to them appear to be, in order, Castellanos, Schoop and Mitchell, all of whom are at least good enough prospects for the Phillies to listen to the conversation, but would all require additional prospects.
All in all, there are some possibilities available for the Phillies if teams are willing to overpay for a shot at a title, but most teams will probably not be willing to do so. The way the trade market is shaping up as we near the end of June, it’s hard to find a trade partner for the Phillies that will bring them more than would their consolation draft picks.
