Matt Fazio's weekly look at a team's weaknesses at the major league level, and their internal solutions. This week, Matt looks at the possibilities in the Cardinals organization.
Only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals were prime candidates to make a big move at the trade deadline (which passed on July 31st). While the Cards still may acquire someone through the Waiver Wire, only trading for mediocre bullpen pitcher Edward Mujica seems like St. Louis did not do enough at the deadline. Many teams noted that the market was weak this year due to the second Wild Card in each division and more teams looking to improve. With the high prices of impact players, it seems St. Louis is content with what they have. The question is not about what they have, but rather what they need.
The Cards lead the National League in runs, hits, RBIs, and batting average. Moreover, the Cards are in the top half of the NL in ERA, WHIP, and wins. It would seem as though the team is solid, but perhaps a closer look is necessary to see what is needed to become a playoff team. Their entire regular lineup is hitting .267 or better (a truly remarkable statistic) and five are on pace for 80+ RBIs, while Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran are both on pace to hit 30+ homeruns.
While St. Louis has impact bats, their starting pitching lacks punch. With former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter out for the season, the Cardinals took a hit. However, after losing Jaime Garcia, who won 13 games back-to-back years for the Cardinals, and with Adam Wainwright having an adjustment period after Tommy John surgery (0-3 with a 7.32 ERA in April), the Cardinals pitching staff has had its fair share of losses.
Still within the playoff hunt, it would seem the Cards need to bolster their pitching and be prepared for any injury to one of their premier players. Looking at the St. Louis Cardinals' minor league affiliates, I will give my best prediction if the Cards are ready for this stretch as they were last year when they won the World Series or if they will fall up short.
When looking at the Cardinals top prospects, look no further than Shelby Miller. Miller was the Cards first-round draft pick in 2009 and continued to progress as a power right-handed arm. 2011 was Miller’s break-out minor league year posting a 11-6 record, a 2.77 ERA, a 1.181 WHIP, and an unthinkable 170 strikeouts in 139.2 innings. MLB.com had Miller ranked as the second best pitching prospect in all of baseball, and while Cardinal fans were looking forward to seeing the 21-year old in St. Louis this year, Miller’s surprising regression has held up his promotion.
While he still has 107 strike outs in 99.1 innings this season, the rest of Miller’s numbers have not been as solid. His 3.4 BB/9 rated has risen to 4.2; his ERA has nearly doubled since ’11, now at 5.44; and his 6-9 record, although not always an accurate stat in the minors, is not where the Cards want it to be. Even the strikeouts, though impressive are down for Miller: striking out batters at a 12.1 clip in ’10, a 11.0 clip in ’11, and a 9.7 clip in ’12. While 9.7 is still great, it is not as jaw dropping. While it seems as though this is all bad news, there is still much to look forward to.
Miller made the jump at 21 to AAA. Although he is being hit around, he is in the Pacific Coast League, notorious for inflating homerun numbers. His homeruns went up from 4 in ’11 to 20 in ’12. Some of these bombs may be attributed to the league. Also, his age, skill set, and track record all indicate he will still make a good starting pitcher in the MLB, just perhaps not this season.
One such player who may make an impact with the Cardinals this year is John Gast. As the Cardinals 8th ranked prospect, Gast does not have the type of ceiling that Miller does. However, this lefty is 27-12 in three minor league seasons ranging from A- to AAA. Gast, 23, has had a rocky transitional period to Triple-A this season, yet his strike out rate has gotten better, his homerun rate has gone down, and he is currently 8-2 for the Memphis Redbirds. His 4.52 ERA would seem to be a deterrent, but it seems that he is slightly more polished and closer to his expectations that Miller. Though a starter his entire minor league career, Gast may be used the same way St. Louis used Trevor Rosenthal, prospect who joined St. Louis last week - in the bull pen. Gast worked from the bull pen for Florida State University and has experience in different roles. Also, Gast and Rosenthal could provide a unique arm for the bull pen or for a spot start if the Cardinals needed help down the stretch.
Just as Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, and David Freese all stepped up in the absence of losing Albert Pujols, the greatest hitter in the last decade, and then losing Lance Berkman to injury, others must continue to step up down the stretch. Both Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams had chances at the big league level this year. While Carpenter has contributed more this year, it is likely Adams who will be the long term investment. Although he played 27 games with the Cardinals, Adams was sent down at the end of June and has been in the minors since. With a slash line of .340/.375/.647, it is obvious that Adams is producing in Triple-A. Coming off a year in Double-A with 32 homeruns, 101 RBIs, and a .300 average, not to mention in only 115 games, it seems that Adams may be their answer at first base for the long haul. This season, in only 62 games, Adams 17 home runs and 48 RBIs. While the roster seems crowded now, Adams will be an asset when rosters expand for the Cardinals.
Another help for the long-term will be Oscar Taveras. Taveras is a 20-year-old outfielder with a tremendous amount of power. In most cases with younger players, projection analysis tells readers that “the power will come.” With Taveras, it is already there. Taveras is having quiet a year in Double-A: .320/.385/.570. Taveras has 28 doubles, 6 triples, and 19 home runs in 102 games. With 53 extra base hits in 102 games, Taveras is on the fast lane to the bigs. His strikeout rate is excellent, usually a stumbling point for young players. If his walk rate rises, Taveras could see time in St. Louis as early as 2013, but likely not before.
Though the Cardinals are close to the Wild Card, it seems like that their team needs, which are the back end of their rotation as well as help in their bull pen, cannot fully be met with players in their organization. That said, with as many top tier players as they have in Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, and a healthy Lance Berkman, anything is possible. In my estimation, the Cardinals realized they have a few prospect on the precipice of the bigs and did not want to mortgage their future for a rent-a-player now. The 2012 St. Louis Cardinals are a good team, but I do not know if they are a playoff team. However, I do know if they can add Matt Adams, Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, and a few other pieces in the next year or two, they will have a strong core of young players who will be built to win.
Matt Fazio is a life-long baseball fan who has recently begun writing for MLB Prospect Watch. Residing in Pittsburgh, Matt is a die-hard Pirates fan. All questions and comments can be directed straight to Matt’s twitter handle: @1stTo3rd
Previous Entries in the Series:
Minnesota Twins Pitching - 6/1/12
Los Angeles Dodgers Power Hitters - 6/8/12
Detroit Tigers Pitching - 6/15/12
San Diego Padres Draft Record - 6/22/12
New York Yankees Pitching - 7/2/12
Texas Rangers Bench - 7/21/12
