MLB Prospect Watch

MLB Prospect Watch Inbox - 2/5/12

Here at MLB Prospect Watch, we want to answer the prospect questions that you have.  After all, we're here for you.  So any time you have a prospect question, just send it to us using the Submit a Question tab on the navigation bar above.  When we get enough questions to make an entire post out of it, we'll answer them.  

 

Q:  If you could only have one of them, which of the Pirates stud pitching prospects would you rather have?  Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole?

 -James in Renfrew, PA

MLBPW:  Thanks for the lob to start with, James.  Geez.  Luckily the Pirates don't have to pick between the two because it wouldn't be an easy choice.  Cole has yet to throw a professional pitch, so that always makes him a riskier choice, but just given his age and the fact that even though he hasn't appeared professionally yet, he's still much closer to the majors than Taillon.  That's really the only difference between the two at this point - age and proximity to the majors.  They are both immensely talented, although Cole does throw a little harder, and his off-speed stuff is a little more refined.  But that's to be expected.  Don't be shocked to see Taillion in a few years exactly where Cole is now.

 

Q:  Who is the best shortstop prospect in the game today?

 -Jaquan in Oakland, CA

MLBPW:  There's a couple different ways to answer this question.  The best defensive shortstops are probably Freddy Galvis of the Phillies and Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox, but there are serious questions about whether either one will hit enough to play full-time, especially Galvis.  So they can't be considered the best shortstop prospects in the game.  There are also some serious prospects that are shortstops right now, but will never play shortstop in the majors, like Miguel Sano of the Twins, who's already playing as much third base as he is shortstop.  So in order to answer this question, I'm only going to consider prospects who are going to stick at shortstop and be good enough to play every day.

There two shortstops in the minors right now that have separated themselves from the rest.  Manny Machado had a tremendous first full season in the Orioles system, playing well enough at short to make people believe he can stick there and hitting well, especially before a mid-season knee injury.  He's among the best already, and is only in A-ball.  Jurickson Profar is even younger than Machado, but had a great 2011 season, posting an .893 OPS in Low-A ball as an 18-year-old.  The Rangers love his power/speed combo (57 extra-base hits and 23 steals) and his plate discipline (65 walks to 63 strike outs) and believe he will be more consistent with his glove as he matures.

WIthin a few months of the 2012 season, there may be a few more names in consideration, as 2011 first-round picks Francisco Lindor of the Indians and Javier Baez of the Cubs make their professional debuts, but it will be tough for either to surpass Machado and Profar unless one of them falters.

What we're seeing right now is a swoon of big-time shortstop prospects in the upper minors.

 

Q:  It's fantasy baseball time!  I'm in a long-term keeper league and need a starting pitcher.  Who would you recommend between Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner?

-Dave in Appleton, WI

MLBPW:  It depends on whether you need a pitcher for this year or down the road.  Miller is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling, but he's further away than Turner.  There's a good shot that Turner could be the Tigers 5th starter this year.  Miller will be in Spring Training with the Cardinals, but they don't have a spot in their rotation for Miller this year.  In addition, Miller spend the second half of the season in Double-A, and has made just 16 starts at that level.  Turner started 2011 at Double-A, made 17 starts there, then made three in Triple-A and three more in the majors.  Miller could start the year in Double-A and finish it in Triple-A, or start in Triple-A and spend the entire season there, but it's unlikely he makes more than a start or two in the majors in 2012, if he makes any at all.  He is the better pitcher, however, and profiles as a true ace, while Turner should wind up being a number two or three starter.

Prospect Potent Potables - Orioles, Montero, Frazier

• The Orioles have been linked as possible trade candidates with just about every low-end veteran that's reportedly on the trading block, but as Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun points out, they don't have a lot to trade that they're willing to part with.  Connolly mentions Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes as the only realistic trade pieces among the Orioles top prospects.  If the team can't get significant return or significant improvement in an area of need (which, for those prospects they probably can't), then I don't see how a trade makes sense.  The Orioles aren't close to competing in the AL East, and giving up a prospect with any kind of upside for a marginal starter or middle reliever isn't the way to build long-term.
• Jesus Montero's power potential is even more valuable now than it would have been a decade ago, which is why the Mariners were willing to part with such a young, talented pitcher in order to get him, says Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.  Stone quotes scouts that even say that young position players are becoming more difficult to develop than young pitching, which, if true, and given the Mariners staple of young pitchers, makes the move a good fit for the Mariners even more.
• Todd Frazier's best chance to make the Reds roster this spring is his versatility, but the team has signed other versatile players Wilson Valdez and Willie Harris, potentially bocking Frazier's path, notes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.  While Valdez and Harris have veteran experience, Frazier can duplicate all of their versatility in one player, and has more power potential than either one.  At 26, if Frazier isn't ready for the majors, he may never be.
• I wrote a piece for MLB Depth Charts discussing which of the top prospects in the game will make their team's Opening Day roster, including Montero, Matt Moore, Bryce Harper, Jacob Turner, Shelby Miller, Mike Trout, and Trevor Bauer.

Prospect Potent Potables - Cardinals, Olt, Mendonca, Indians

• FutureRedbirds.net takes a look at the success the St. Louis Cardinals have had drafting pitchers in the early rounds, including Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, and Jordan Swagarty.
• The Rangers have moved both Mike Olt and Tommy Mendonca off the hot corner, despite them both being capable defenders at the position, notes Jeff Wilson for Baseball America.  With Adrian Beltre blocking both players in the majors, Olt is getting time at first base this spring while Mendonca is converting to catcher, a transition that could take time, but could also pay off with major dividends if successful.
• The Cleveland Indians have promoted or traded away most of the top talent in their farm system, but Jim Piascik of Indians Prospect Insider has five names from within the organization that are worth getting excited about this season, including 2011 first-round pick Francisco Lindor.

Prospect Potent Potables - Flores, Taillon, Cardinals and Pirates Invites

• Wilmer Flores' positional future has been up in the air for quite some time, but Mets beat reporter Anthony DiComo says that it's his bat that will determine his future.  Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com agrees, pointing out that Flores is a bit of a "tweener," in that his defense isn't good enough for shortstop but he doesn't have the power yet for third base.
• Despite an ERA of almost 4.00 in his first full season, Mike Newman of FanGraphs.com calls Jameson Taillon's 2011 season a success.  And he's right.  The Pirates top pick from 2010 had a FIP of 3.37 and his stuff was more impressive than his numbers, and the Pirates limited his use of his plus curveball in order to develop his other off-speed pitches.
• The Cardinals and Pirates have announced their non-roster invitees to Spring Training.  The reigning world champs' list includes 2011 first-rounder Kolten Wong, top prospect Shelby Miller, and more, while the Buccos list includes first overall pick in 2011 Gerrit Cole among others.  You can check out all of the spring training invites and keep track of them throughout the spring on our Spring Training Invites Page.

Prospect Potent Potables - Miller, Mets, Westmoreland, Pimentel

• Everyone in St. Louis wants to know when top prospect Shelby Miller will make it to the majors, and the writers from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch do their best to answer that question.
• The Mets have been in numerous talks during the winter meetings, which puts their top prospects on alert, but Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com wonders what the value really is of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, and Jenrry Mejia.
• Excellent news for Red Sox prospect Ryan Westmoreland, who has finally been cleared for game action after a full year away, and is slated to face live pitching soon, according to Ian Browne of MLB.com.
• The Oakland A's have signed 17-year-old OF Sanber Pimentel, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America.
• Padres SS prospect Drew Cumberland, whose career was thought to be over after sitting out all of 2011, is going to try to play again this season, says Corey Brock of MLB.com.