MLB Prospect Watch

MLB Prospect Watch Inbox - 2/5/12

Here at MLB Prospect Watch, we want to answer the prospect questions that you have.  After all, we're here for you.  So any time you have a prospect question, just send it to us using the Submit a Question tab on the navigation bar above.  When we get enough questions to make an entire post out of it, we'll answer them.  

 

Q:  If you could only have one of them, which of the Pirates stud pitching prospects would you rather have?  Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole?

 -James in Renfrew, PA

MLBPW:  Thanks for the lob to start with, James.  Geez.  Luckily the Pirates don't have to pick between the two because it wouldn't be an easy choice.  Cole has yet to throw a professional pitch, so that always makes him a riskier choice, but just given his age and the fact that even though he hasn't appeared professionally yet, he's still much closer to the majors than Taillon.  That's really the only difference between the two at this point - age and proximity to the majors.  They are both immensely talented, although Cole does throw a little harder, and his off-speed stuff is a little more refined.  But that's to be expected.  Don't be shocked to see Taillion in a few years exactly where Cole is now.

 

Q:  Who is the best shortstop prospect in the game today?

 -Jaquan in Oakland, CA

MLBPW:  There's a couple different ways to answer this question.  The best defensive shortstops are probably Freddy Galvis of the Phillies and Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox, but there are serious questions about whether either one will hit enough to play full-time, especially Galvis.  So they can't be considered the best shortstop prospects in the game.  There are also some serious prospects that are shortstops right now, but will never play shortstop in the majors, like Miguel Sano of the Twins, who's already playing as much third base as he is shortstop.  So in order to answer this question, I'm only going to consider prospects who are going to stick at shortstop and be good enough to play every day.

There two shortstops in the minors right now that have separated themselves from the rest.  Manny Machado had a tremendous first full season in the Orioles system, playing well enough at short to make people believe he can stick there and hitting well, especially before a mid-season knee injury.  He's among the best already, and is only in A-ball.  Jurickson Profar is even younger than Machado, but had a great 2011 season, posting an .893 OPS in Low-A ball as an 18-year-old.  The Rangers love his power/speed combo (57 extra-base hits and 23 steals) and his plate discipline (65 walks to 63 strike outs) and believe he will be more consistent with his glove as he matures.

WIthin a few months of the 2012 season, there may be a few more names in consideration, as 2011 first-round picks Francisco Lindor of the Indians and Javier Baez of the Cubs make their professional debuts, but it will be tough for either to surpass Machado and Profar unless one of them falters.

What we're seeing right now is a swoon of big-time shortstop prospects in the upper minors.

 

Q:  It's fantasy baseball time!  I'm in a long-term keeper league and need a starting pitcher.  Who would you recommend between Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner?

-Dave in Appleton, WI

MLBPW:  It depends on whether you need a pitcher for this year or down the road.  Miller is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling, but he's further away than Turner.  There's a good shot that Turner could be the Tigers 5th starter this year.  Miller will be in Spring Training with the Cardinals, but they don't have a spot in their rotation for Miller this year.  In addition, Miller spend the second half of the season in Double-A, and has made just 16 starts at that level.  Turner started 2011 at Double-A, made 17 starts there, then made three in Triple-A and three more in the majors.  Miller could start the year in Double-A and finish it in Triple-A, or start in Triple-A and spend the entire season there, but it's unlikely he makes more than a start or two in the majors in 2012, if he makes any at all.  He is the better pitcher, however, and profiles as a true ace, while Turner should wind up being a number two or three starter.

Is Montero's Defense Improving?

The only knock on Jesus Montero's abilities have been defensive related, but even those are becoming fewer and further between these days.  Most reports are claiming improvement for the Yankees top-rated prospect behind the plate, especially in regards to his ability to throw out potential base stealers, a theory that was aided when Montero gunned down two baserunners in a spring training game on Tuesday.  And while Montero's arm strength has never been the question, it's his quickness and throwing motion that are reportedly showing improvement.

No one questions Montero's ability to hit, so the only thing holding him from the majors is his defensive preparedness, which makes his progress in that regard a focal point for the 21-year-old this spring, notes Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.  The Yankees are naturally enticed to keep Montero on the major league roster if he shows even the slightest defensive capabilities, hoping that he can serve as a backup to Russell Martin, who recently returned from injury, and spell former catcher Jorge Posada at DH.  Montero will have to jump Francisco Cervelli on the team's depth chart, but with his far-superior bat, Montero should have no trouble doing so if the team feels he can handle catching one or two days per week.  But an argument can be made both for and against the idea of Montero serving in a back-up role in the majors, and Mike Axisa of River Avenue Blues does exactly that.

But others have made the case that, despite improved throwing results in small sample sizes, Montero's defense is still far away from being major league ready.  Moshe Mandel of YankeeAnalysts.com has some unflattering numbers regarding the success of Montero's pitchers while catching in Triple-A in 2010, and while pitching statistics for catchers should be taken with a grain of salt, the numbers surrounding Montero do require a further look.  Furthermore, his passed ball and while pitch numbers are far from what they need to be and must improve before he's catching in New York.

But for all we know, they have.  His showings this spring have been positive thus far, albeit brief.  Montero is nonetheless in the running for a roster spot, and any defensive improvements, however slight, may be all the justification the Yankees need to keep his potent bat in the Bronx this April.

 

 

Organizational Update - Washington Nationals

Time to get caught up...

The Nationals once barren system is now beginning to bear fruit.  For simplicity's sake here, I'll assume you already know all about Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen.

Michael Burgess - Stats

The problem with Burgess has always been consistent contact.  His second go-round in the Carolina League seems to have solved that problem for now, but Burgess is going to have to prove he can lower his strike out numbers without repeating a level.  This year's K-rate has dipped below the 20% sign, and his OPS has risen to .814 as a result, which could result in a promotion to Double-A and the next test for Burgess.

Paul Demny - Stats

Demny is repeating the Sally League largely because of his 5.14 ERA last season, but in spite of his 3.78 FIP.  The Nationals are probably thrilled with his "improvements" this season and his 2.77 ERA, despite his FIP of 3.81.  In other words, Demny is about the same pitcher he was last year, but a lot luckier.

Danny Espinosa - Stats

After a season flashing both power and patience, and the corresponding promotion to Double-A this season, Espinosa has struggled slightly against tougher competition, but no more so than a 25-point drop in his BABIP would suggest.  He's still displaying decent plate discipline and some power, so he's far from a lost cause, and may just take some time to adjust to Double-A pitching. 

Destin Hood - Stats

Hood is creeping up on his career high in games played in a season already in 2010, which signals part of the problem.  The other is his plate discipline, as his K/BB ratio through 144 career minor is 146/37.  This season's respectable .290 batting average is a product of his unsustainable .404 BABIP and 22% line drive rate, and even with a bit of good luck, his OPS still stands at just .693.

Jeff Kobernus - Stats

More was expected out of last year's second round pick than his current .235/.260/.261 line.  He's simply not displaying any power or plate discipline (26 K's against 4 BB's).  It's a surprising performance from a college draft pick, but if improvement isn't seen by the time short season ball opens up, a demotion could be in line.

Stephen Lombardozzi - Stats

The son of a former big leaguer, Lombardozzi has been the model of consistency throughout his professional career.  This season, the 2B has maintained his plate discipline while displaying slightly more extra base power, but still no home run ability.  Still, his .384 OBP alone will be enough to keep him around.

Chris Marrero - Stats

Finally in Double-A but still just 21-years-old, Marrero hasn't developed into the complete hitter the Nationals thought they were drafting in 2006, but he does have good power that plays in games.  His free-swinging tendencies may be his demise at the higher levels of the minors, but his .274/.322/.434 line this year at Harrisburg is enough to think that he may still be able to be an everyday player in the majors at some point.

Jack McGeary - Stats

McGeary has managed to get his control back to respectability after an extremely wild 2009 season, but still isn't missing quite enough bats to be truly effective.  He is also averaging less than 5 innings per start, which is due to the Nationals restrictions on him, but is also a bad sign for a pitcher in his 4th professional season, regardless of the educational commitments that made him a part-time player his first few seasons.

Derek Norris - Stats

The best prospect the Nationals have left in the minors after Strasburg and Storen's promotions, Norris has continued to display his impeccable plate discipline this season, but has seen his power zapped due to various injuries.  Even without power, his .277/.440/.369 line is impressive, even if it is only in 20 games.

Royals' Moustakas Regaining His Prospect Status

Any time you are ready to give up on a top prospect, remember Mike Moustakas.  

No one knows what kind of career Moustakas is going to have, but this time last year, some people were beginning to form the word "bust" onto a label especially fit for the Royals' 3B prospect.  Those same people have probably never tried to hit at Class A WIlmington's Frawley Stadium (a task of which I can personally verify the difficulty).  The combination of a cavernous outfield and Moustakas's lack of plate discipline led to .297 on-base percentage and a drop in his power from 22 home runs the year before to 16 last season.  His K-to-BB rate also rose from 2-to-1 to 2.8-to-1.  

But this season, as Todd Traub of MLB.com reports, Moustakas is displaying all of the attributes that made him the 2rd overall pick in 2007.  Sporting a .390/.476/.797 line in Double-A, Moustakas has even refined his plate discipline (large in part to the fear opposing pitchers now have of throwing him a strike) to the point where he has only one more strike out than walk.

The biggest difference is simple though - he's simply squaring up the ball more frequently.  His line drive rate is up to a career high of 21.4% after steadily declining since the start of his professional career to a career low last season of only 13%.  For a hitter like Moustakas, a LD% in the 20's is not unsustainable, and his corresponding BABIP of .386 on the 2010 season, while elevated due to some good luck on ground balls, is not the sole reason for his inflated stats.  Moustakas is no doubt in for some regression (a BABIP of .344 on ground balls would be virtually impossible for a slow-footed power hitter to maintain), but his pure hitting ability should allow him to maintain a high LD rate and therefore a solid-to-above average BA.

Which is good news for Royals' fans who are in desperate need of some optimism.

Mejia Back to Minors?

The New York Mets need starting pitching, and Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports that their next option might be current reliever Jenrry Mejia.  In order to make the transition, Mejia would need about a month in the minor leagues, which could happen as soon as Wednesday, according to Rubin.

Mejia has been a starter for the majority of his professional career, and it was only an eye-popping spring that prompted the Mets to convert him to a bullpen role in the majors this season.  The Mets have said that they still view Mejia as a starter long-term and that he would have spent the winter converting back regardless.

The question remains, however, shouldn't the Mets have seen this coming?  The Mets have only used 5 starting pitchers this year, so they are just now getting into a situation where they have had to use an extra starter.  Their immediate minor league options include 35-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, Pat Misch (7 starts with the Mets last season) and prospects Dillon Gee (4.21 ERA in Triple-A) and Mike Antonini (4.54 ERA in Double-A).  Clearly there wasn't a lot of depth after the 5 guys penciled into the initial major league rotation at the start of the season, and that rotation included a rookie (Jon Niese), a pitcher coming back from injury (John Maine) and Oliver Perez (enough said).

Sure enough, through almost 40 games the Mets have two reliable pitchers, with Niese now injured and Perez banished to the bullpen.  The Mets are going to try long-relief man Hisanori Takahashi in the rotation for the time being, but still need another arm, and that's without replacing Maine and his 6.13 ERA (prefer sabermetrics? his FIP is 5.72 - still bad).

These are the specifics, however.  Hindsight makes it easy to see how they Mets shot themselves in the foot by making their best starting pitching prospect a reliever this spring.  But consider these facts:  In 2009, National League teams used an average of just over 10 different starting pitchers.  No team used fewer than 8, and the Mets themselves used 11 different starters.  So far we've named the 5 initial rotation members, Takahashi, Gee, Misch, Dickey, and Antonini.  That's 10, and even some of those options are a stretch (Antonini would be rushed, for one).

It's not even worth asking if the Mets should have seen the potential need for extra starters.  But the question that does remain then is whether a month and a half of Mejia in the bullpen was worth the wins it is going to cost them to use one of these other pitchers for the next month while Mejia gets his arm ready to throw a hundred pitches.  It's a matter of opportunity cost.  If the Mets had left Mejia in the minors as a starter, he could be called up today and enter the rotation immediately, but they would have lost his bullpen production.  Now, he must spend a month preparing to be a starter again.

So was it the right decision?

We won't know for sure until we see how his replacements fare, but we know what they're up against.  In his 18 appearances, Mejia had a WAR of -0.1 and a WPA of -0.38, so despite his impressive ERA numbers and flashy velocity, he was actually right around replacement level and came in as the least valuable member of the Mets' bullpen based on Win Probability Added.  

In other words, his production wouldn't have been hard to replace.

Assuming the Mets believe he will fare differently as a starter (an arguable point in its own right, but not part of the discussion here) and more importantly if they believe he is a better option than their current replacement starters (which, accurately or not, they probably do), there is no reason Mejia should have been in the major leagues this season instead of preparing for a situation the team knew it would eventually have to face.