MLB Prospect Watch

MLB Prospect Watch Inbox - 2/5/12

Here at MLB Prospect Watch, we want to answer the prospect questions that you have.  After all, we're here for you.  So any time you have a prospect question, just send it to us using the Submit a Question tab on the navigation bar above.  When we get enough questions to make an entire post out of it, we'll answer them.  

 

Q:  If you could only have one of them, which of the Pirates stud pitching prospects would you rather have?  Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole?

 -James in Renfrew, PA

MLBPW:  Thanks for the lob to start with, James.  Geez.  Luckily the Pirates don't have to pick between the two because it wouldn't be an easy choice.  Cole has yet to throw a professional pitch, so that always makes him a riskier choice, but just given his age and the fact that even though he hasn't appeared professionally yet, he's still much closer to the majors than Taillon.  That's really the only difference between the two at this point - age and proximity to the majors.  They are both immensely talented, although Cole does throw a little harder, and his off-speed stuff is a little more refined.  But that's to be expected.  Don't be shocked to see Taillion in a few years exactly where Cole is now.

 

Q:  Who is the best shortstop prospect in the game today?

 -Jaquan in Oakland, CA

MLBPW:  There's a couple different ways to answer this question.  The best defensive shortstops are probably Freddy Galvis of the Phillies and Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox, but there are serious questions about whether either one will hit enough to play full-time, especially Galvis.  So they can't be considered the best shortstop prospects in the game.  There are also some serious prospects that are shortstops right now, but will never play shortstop in the majors, like Miguel Sano of the Twins, who's already playing as much third base as he is shortstop.  So in order to answer this question, I'm only going to consider prospects who are going to stick at shortstop and be good enough to play every day.

There two shortstops in the minors right now that have separated themselves from the rest.  Manny Machado had a tremendous first full season in the Orioles system, playing well enough at short to make people believe he can stick there and hitting well, especially before a mid-season knee injury.  He's among the best already, and is only in A-ball.  Jurickson Profar is even younger than Machado, but had a great 2011 season, posting an .893 OPS in Low-A ball as an 18-year-old.  The Rangers love his power/speed combo (57 extra-base hits and 23 steals) and his plate discipline (65 walks to 63 strike outs) and believe he will be more consistent with his glove as he matures.

WIthin a few months of the 2012 season, there may be a few more names in consideration, as 2011 first-round picks Francisco Lindor of the Indians and Javier Baez of the Cubs make their professional debuts, but it will be tough for either to surpass Machado and Profar unless one of them falters.

What we're seeing right now is a swoon of big-time shortstop prospects in the upper minors.

 

Q:  It's fantasy baseball time!  I'm in a long-term keeper league and need a starting pitcher.  Who would you recommend between Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner?

-Dave in Appleton, WI

MLBPW:  It depends on whether you need a pitcher for this year or down the road.  Miller is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling, but he's further away than Turner.  There's a good shot that Turner could be the Tigers 5th starter this year.  Miller will be in Spring Training with the Cardinals, but they don't have a spot in their rotation for Miller this year.  In addition, Miller spend the second half of the season in Double-A, and has made just 16 starts at that level.  Turner started 2011 at Double-A, made 17 starts there, then made three in Triple-A and three more in the majors.  Miller could start the year in Double-A and finish it in Triple-A, or start in Triple-A and spend the entire season there, but it's unlikely he makes more than a start or two in the majors in 2012, if he makes any at all.  He is the better pitcher, however, and profiles as a true ace, while Turner should wind up being a number two or three starter.

Prospect Potent Potables - Angels, Sanchez, Orioles, Cubs Invites

• Sam Miller of The Orange County Register cites a Baseball Prospectus article (subscription needed) that breaks down the things that could go wrong with the Angels top prospects.  Miller's article has the quote on Mike Trout, explaining his potential troubles against right-handed pitching, based on his struggles in the majors last season.
• Pirates C prospect Tony Sanchez apparently had another off-the-field incident, occurring during the instructional season in Florida this past fall, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  Sanchez allegedly broke his jaw in a bar fight, although he was not hurt a few weeks later at a team mini-camp.  Sanchez has already had jaw issues, missing much of the 2010 season after breaking his jaw getting hit by pitches.  He also was suspended for three games last season after ripping umpires on his Twitter feed.
• The Orioles have announced their second South Korean high school signing in the past week, inking Seong-Min Kim, a 18-year-old left-handed pitcher, reports Jordan Tuwiner of Orioles-Nation.com.  Just two days ago, the team announced the signing of 17-year-old South Korean lefty Kim Sung-min.
• The Cubs have announced their spring training invites, says Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.  Among the prospects invited are outfielders Brett Jackson and Jae-Hoon Ha, and pitchers Jay Jackson, Trey McNutt, and Dae-Eun Rhee.

Prospect Potent Potables - Flores, Taillon, Cardinals and Pirates Invites

• Wilmer Flores' positional future has been up in the air for quite some time, but Mets beat reporter Anthony DiComo says that it's his bat that will determine his future.  Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com agrees, pointing out that Flores is a bit of a "tweener," in that his defense isn't good enough for shortstop but he doesn't have the power yet for third base.
• Despite an ERA of almost 4.00 in his first full season, Mike Newman of FanGraphs.com calls Jameson Taillon's 2011 season a success.  And he's right.  The Pirates top pick from 2010 had a FIP of 3.37 and his stuff was more impressive than his numbers, and the Pirates limited his use of his plus curveball in order to develop his other off-speed pitches.
• The Cardinals and Pirates have announced their non-roster invitees to Spring Training.  The reigning world champs' list includes 2011 first-rounder Kolten Wong, top prospect Shelby Miller, and more, while the Buccos list includes first overall pick in 2011 Gerrit Cole among others.  You can check out all of the spring training invites and keep track of them throughout the spring on our Spring Training Invites Page.

Scouting Reports on Rule V Draft Picks

The annual Rule V draft took place this morning, with 12 teams making selections.  Players taken in the Rule V draft must stay in the majors with their drafting team for the entire season, or be offered back to their original organization.

1 - Astros - Rhiner Cruz, RHP (drafted from NYM)

2 - Twins - Terry Doyle, rhp (CWS)

3 - Mariners - Lucas Luetge, lhp (MIL)

4 - Orioles - Ryan Flaherty, util - (CHC)

5 - Yankees - Cesar Cabral, lhp (BOS)

6 - Cubs - Lendy Castillo, rhp (PHI)

8 - Pirates - Gustavo Nunez, ss (DET)

21- Braves - Robert Fish, lhp (LAA)

22 - Cardinals - Eric Komatsu, of (WAS)

23 - Astros - Marwin Gonzalez, 3b (CHC)

25 - Diamondbacks - Brett Lorin, rhp (PIT)

29 - Yankees - Brad Meyers, rhp (WAS)

 

Of the position players, Komatsu and Flaherty have the best chance to stick with their teams for the duration of the season.  Komatsu has had offensive success in the minors (albeit none higher than Double-A), and if he can play center defensively, even in a back-up role, he could make a nice 5th or perhaps even 4th outfielder this year.  Flaherty doesn't really have a defensive position, but his best option is probably third base, where the Orioles have a void.  He has also seen time at short, second, and corner outfield throughout the minors, and he's a left-handed stick with a little pop, so his versatility and pinch-hitting ability should enable him to stick, even if he can't win a regular job.

The pitchers fall into three categories:  hard-throwers who could stick or flame out (Cruz); potential LOOGYs (Luetge, Cabral, and Fish); and finesse rightys with good control (Doyle, Lorin, Meyers) who could stick an entire year the way Nathan Adcock did with the Royals last year, depending mostly on how roster shuffling plays out throughout the season.

Pirates Aquire INF Navarro for Pounders

Yamaico Navarro, who was sent to the Kansas City Royals by the Royals this past season in exchance for Mike Aviles, has been traded again, this time to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  In exchange for the 24-year-old infielder, the Pirates will send prospects Brooks Pounders and Diego Goris to Kansas City, reports Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com.

Navarro, traded to the Royals by the Red Sox at last year's trade deadline, has hit just .206 between the two organizations over the past two years, but was rated as the Red Sox No. 9 prospect in 2009 by Baseball America, who projected him as the team's shortstop of the future.  

At the time of the trade, Baseball America said about him:

"Navarro controls the strike zone reasonably well and has tremendous bat speed, so he has the ability to hit for solid average with as many as 15-20 homers per season. His strong arm is his best defensive tool, and he also shows some quickness and soft hands. His effort and conditioning waver at times, though he has gotten more consistent in those regards in recent seasons. Aviles may be better prepared to help the Red Sox today, but Navarro has more long-term potential."

The Royals had no place to give Navarro regular playing time in 2012, with Johnny Giavotella, Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas firmly entrenched at second base, short stop, and third base, respectively.  In exchange, they got two prospects.

Pounders was a second-round pick in (with a first-round name) taken by the Pirates in 2009.  Despite being 6'4" 255 lbs, Pounders' fastball topped out in the low-90s coming out of high school, but was noted for having advanced secondary stuff and a feel for four pitches.  Despite a lack of power stuff, however, the Pirates have already converted Pounders to a reliever.  It remains to be seen what the Royals will do with him.

Goris is a 20-year-old INF who has played primarily short stop and has spent all four of his professional seasons in the Dominican Summer League, having yet to play domestically.  He has hit .302 during his four years, showing little power or ability to draw walks, but not striking out frequently either.