MLB Prospect Watch

Prospect Potent Potables - Castro, Familia, Lake, Yankees, Royals

• The White Sox hope that newly acquired prospect Simon Castro proves to be a manageable reclamation project, notes Mark Gonzales of BaseballAmerica.com, who also notes that the Sox have made a $250,000 investment in 17-year-old RHP Luis Martinez out of Venezuela.
• Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin were acquired together by the Padres at last year's trade deadline, and Corey Brock of MLB.com suggests that both could make it to the majors this season.
• After a long 2011 season and a trip to the DL, the Mets didn't let Jeurys Familia pitch a lot in the Dominican Winter League this off-season, but as Andy McCullough points out for Baseball America, they still let him pitch a few innings to get him some experience coming out of the bullpen.
• Junior Lake may have tore up the Arizona Fall Leauge, but the Cubs' prospect's game is still largely hit or miss, says Mike Newman for FanGraphs.com.
• George King of Baseball America points out how Yankees pitching prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos are actually further away from the majors than they were this time last season, despite positive development since that time.
• The Royals have an array of prospects and veterans attending camp as non-roster invitees, and Paul Thompson of KingsofKauffman.com breaks down the chances all of them have of making the team's Opening Day roster, giving pitching prospect Mike Montgomery the best chance of all.

Jesus Montero To Seattle - Links and Reactions

Last night, the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners hooked up in what, at the very least, has to be the most surprising trade of the off-season.  The Mariners sent first-year pitcher Michael Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos to the Yankees in exchange for top prospect Jesus Montero and pitching prospect Hector Noesi, as reported in multiple places, including by Athony McCarron of the NY Daily News, Larry Stone of The Seattle Times, and initially by Greg Johns of MLB.com.

• Baseball America has scouting reports on all four players involved.  
• Keith Law of ESPN.com gives a slight edge in the trade to the Mariners because of "the greater probability of the bat they acquired," essentially saying that Montero's hitting is the surest thing of any part of the trade, a statement that is probably true, but doesn't make the Mariners the winners here.  
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com notes that, compared to the other young, team-controlled pitchers traded this off-season (Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez), the Yankees didn't have to give up as much, because they weren't forced to include multiple other prospects to go along with their main trade chip.  
• Josh Norris of The Trentonian, who watched Montero play closely while in the minors, loves the deal for both sides.  
• Elsewhere on ESPN.com, it is pointed out that Pineda's struggles in the second half were due to an increased homerun rate and that he struggled last season against the AL East.
• Mike SIlva of NY Baseball Digest likes the trade for the Yankees.

But this trade is about much more than just Montero and Pineda.  Hector Noesi will have a change to make the Mariners rotation this season, and profiles as a back-of-the-rotation arm or a mid-to-late bullpen arm.  He is not a replacement for Pineda, however, or a potential closer, so he's more of a filler in the trade and adds to the Mariners solid pitching depth.  Campos is the wild card in the trade, both because he's so far from the majors and because he has such a high ceiling.  A live young arm with exceptional control, Campos is also still growing into his 6'4" frame and developing his off-speed pitches.  He's a long way off for sure, but in a few years could swing this trade into the lopsided direction.

Perhaps the Mariners know something about Pineda that no one else does, but for me, the possibility of a Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Danny Hultzen 1-2-3 punch for a three or four year window would have been too much to trade away, especially in a stadium that negates major offensive performance anyway, and in exchange for a player that is essentially a DH.  In addition, free agent bats are a significantly safer investment (Chone Figgins aside - that wasn't risky, it was just dumb) than long-term free agent pitchers, so their offensive woes could have been addressed when they were ready to make a run.

Ultimately, Montero had better hit, and hit a lot.  Maybe the Mariners thought that Pineda's first half of the season was the best he will ever be, and if their right, then they were smart to sell high.  But given what the Reds and Nationals had to give up to get Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez respectively, and given that Pineda is, at the very least, in that class of pitcher (albeit with less experience but more team-controlled years left), it is surprising the Mariners didn't get a few more minor pieces back in return, or surprising that they were forced to include a pitcher of Campos' potential.

Scouting Reports on Rule V Draft Picks

The annual Rule V draft took place this morning, with 12 teams making selections.  Players taken in the Rule V draft must stay in the majors with their drafting team for the entire season, or be offered back to their original organization.

1 - Astros - Rhiner Cruz, RHP (drafted from NYM)

2 - Twins - Terry Doyle, rhp (CWS)

3 - Mariners - Lucas Luetge, lhp (MIL)

4 - Orioles - Ryan Flaherty, util - (CHC)

5 - Yankees - Cesar Cabral, lhp (BOS)

6 - Cubs - Lendy Castillo, rhp (PHI)

8 - Pirates - Gustavo Nunez, ss (DET)

21- Braves - Robert Fish, lhp (LAA)

22 - Cardinals - Eric Komatsu, of (WAS)

23 - Astros - Marwin Gonzalez, 3b (CHC)

25 - Diamondbacks - Brett Lorin, rhp (PIT)

29 - Yankees - Brad Meyers, rhp (WAS)

 

Of the position players, Komatsu and Flaherty have the best chance to stick with their teams for the duration of the season.  Komatsu has had offensive success in the minors (albeit none higher than Double-A), and if he can play center defensively, even in a back-up role, he could make a nice 5th or perhaps even 4th outfielder this year.  Flaherty doesn't really have a defensive position, but his best option is probably third base, where the Orioles have a void.  He has also seen time at short, second, and corner outfield throughout the minors, and he's a left-handed stick with a little pop, so his versatility and pinch-hitting ability should enable him to stick, even if he can't win a regular job.

The pitchers fall into three categories:  hard-throwers who could stick or flame out (Cruz); potential LOOGYs (Luetge, Cabral, and Fish); and finesse rightys with good control (Doyle, Lorin, Meyers) who could stick an entire year the way Nathan Adcock did with the Royals last year, depending mostly on how roster shuffling plays out throughout the season.

Brackman Cut Loose by Yankees

Thanks to a major league contract signed after being drafted in 2007, the New York Yankees had an option of renewing the contract of Andrew Brackman going into the 2012 season.  The Yankees declined that option on Tuesday, making the 6'11" righty a free agent, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com has a scouting report on Brackman from the time he was drafted until the present, while Mike Ashmore of ThunderBaseball.com chronicles Brackman's travels through the Yankees farm system.

We'll have more on Brackman when he signs with a new organization.

 

Prospect Action - 10/25/11

Arizona Fall League

• A 16-hit barrage led the Saguaros to an 8-6 victory.  The onslaught included a 4-hit night by Rangers SS Leury Garcia, which included his first AFL home run, and two more home runs by fellow Ranger prospect Mike Olt, who hit his league leading fifth and sixth.  The first one by Olt came off of Cubs P Trey McNutt, who allowed three earned runs in 2 1/3 innings pitched.
• Despite coming in the third inning, a solo home run by Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado proved to be the difference in his Rafters 4-3 victory.  

Dominican Winter League

• Rockies C Wilin Rosario went 0-for-4 with two strike outs, contributing to his Aguilas Cibaenas poor offensive performance and 5-1 loss.
• Rays P Alex Colome gave up a run late and took the loss for his Leones del Escogido, despite a home run by Pirates OF Starling Marte helping the team's cause.

Mexican Pacific League

• Angels SS Austin Romine reached base three times, but it wasn't nearly enough run support for his pitching staff, who gave up nine runs in their loss.
• Yankees P Pat Vinditte threw another scoreless inning in his Aguilas de Mexicali's loss.

Venezuelan League

• Mariners 3B Francisco Martinez added two more hits, bringing his winter batting average to .378.