Doug Gray at the blog RedsMinorLeagues.com has posted an article theorizing that some of the Cincinnati Reds' positional prospects are having a bit of hard luck when it comes to balls in play falling in for hits. The article argues that, because a number of the Reds' prospects (specifically those in the low minors) play in hitter-unfriendly parks and because some have a below-average BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), their stat lines do not necessarily reflect their on-field performance. Specifically, his data "explains" the poor 2009 seasons by Neftali Soto and Alex Buchholz.
Color me skeptical. While it is essential to look at trends to make sure the stats you are using to analyze a player are telling you what you think they are, it is not as simple as simply adjusting the stats "for luck" and assuming that your new figures are a more accurate description of a player's performance. Yes every stat line for a hitter in the Florida State Leauge should be accompanied with a warning label about the league's overall OPS of .684, but that doesn't mean that every hitter who struggled should be bailed out with a formula. The Reds' top prospect, Yonder Alonso, hit .303/.383/.497 in a half-season in the FSL. He wasn't luckier than his teammates, he was just better.
Players like Soto and Buchholz are probably in line for a slightly better set of slash numbers if they move up to the Double-A Southern League (ave. 2009 OPS of .711), but they are also likely to improve if they try their hand at the FSL again. And it won't be due to luck.
