MLB Prospect Watch

Blogs Track Teams - 4/6/13

• Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com pages through the Pirates system, including a big offensive day for Alen Hanson.  Hanson is attempting to build on his breakout 2012 campaign but was hitless in his first two games before Saturday.
• Luke Erickson of NationalsProspects.com knifes through the Nationals organization, including a win in Paul Demny's first start of the season.  Demny continues to work as a starter while trying to prove he can miss enough bats and throw enough strikes to move up the organizational ladder.
• AthleticsFarm.com analyzes the A's system, including the first home run of the year for Miles Head.  Head is back in Double-A after spending the second-half of 2012 there, and is still working on his defense at third base, a project the A's refuse to give up on just yet.
• PineTarPress.com recaps the Royals system, including rough days at the plate for Bubba Starling and Raul Mondesi.  For Starling, this season is all about making more contact after striking out 70 times in 53 games last season.
• Josh Norris of Minor Matters breaks down the Yankees organization, including Dellin Betances' first start of the season, which wasn't great, but was much better than the last time he was in Triple-A.

Arizona Fall League Injury News: Puig, Head

• Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospect Yasiel Puig, who was slated to play for the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League, will now miss the entire fall after having a surgical procedure done on his right elbow, reports Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times. It was a procedure to clean out an infection in his elbow and is not expected to have long-term effects, but it will knock him out for the fall. He should be ready for the start of spring training. Even before the injury, some, like fellow Times writer Steve Dilbeck, were calling for fans to scale back their excitement of Puig, who had generated tremendous hype due in large part to the massive contract he signed after defecting from Cuba, and partially because of how little is known about him, other than what has come out of the Dodgers organization.
• Oakland A's prospect Miles Head got the start at third base for his Phoenix Desert Dogs on Tuesday, but he was forced to leave the game early with an apparent wrist injury, tweeted Keith Law. He went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts before hurting the wrist on a swing-and-miss, so there's no telling whether or not the wrist was bothering him before. We'll keep you up to date on how long he'll be out as soon as there is any information.

 

Arizona Fall league Preview: Phoenix Desert Dogs

Yesterday, we previewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster, which is probably the most offense-heavy team in an offense-heavy league. The Phoenix Desert Dogs also offer some offensive potency, but their roster appears to be more balanced than Mesa.

Miles Head (OAK)

Head joined the A's organization this past off-season and immediately made his impact felt, one, by hitting everything in sight, and two, by returning to third base after the Red Sox moved him to first in 2011.  Had posted an obscene 1.149 OPS in 67 California League games before coming back down to Earth in Double-A.  He was still average at the advanced level, with a .741 OPS, but with poor defense at third he'll need to hit more like the first version to have value.  Look for a big AFL from Head, however, who thrived in similar hitting conditions.

Hunter Morris (MIL)

Morris was one of the few minor leaguers who could match Head's first half production, but Hunter was able to keep his hot hitting up all season and did it in a tougher hitting league.  The Brewers first baseman hit 40 doubles and 28 home runs in the Double-A Southern League while hitting .303.  The only flaw in Morris' offensive game is plate discipline - despite his power, he walked just 40 times.

Hak-Ju Lee (TB)

After struggling in a brief stint in Double-A to finish up last season, Hak-Ju Lee returned to the level for what the Rays hoped would be only a short period of time. Having hit .318 in the Florida State League in 2011, the Rays were hoping for similar production, but Lee never really got comfortable in Double-A, hitting just .261 on the season.  Lee will always bring the Rays value with his defensive abilities at shortstop, but the Rays were hoping for more from him with the bat.  The AFL has been known to cure offensive woes and the thin desert air could be just what Lee needs after a rough season.

Grant Green (OAK)

Green is in the process of becoming a super-utility player, if only he can find one position he can play.  Drafted as a shortstop, he saw time this season at short, second and third base, as well as left and center field.  He's not great at any of them, but being average at two or three of them could make him valuable to the A's, especially given his slightly above-average bat with decent pop.  He's listed as in infielder with the assert Dogs, and with two other shortstops and two other third baseman on the roster, it wouldn't shock me to see him play a lot of second base this fall.

Christian Yelich (MIA)

The best prospect on the Desert Dogs' roster, and one of the best all-around prospects in the game, Christian Yelich should man center field and hit third for most of the fall.  Putting up a line of .330/.404/.519 is good in any league, but it's great in the Florida State League.  It's even better when you add in 20 steals and solid defense in center field.

 

Other Notable Bats

Tim Beckham is in Arizona trying to make up for the at-bats he lost during his 50-game suspension this season.  He'll probably be playing mostly second base with shortstops Lee and Nick Ahmed on the roster.  Ahmed uses speed as a major part of his game, but looks awkward doing everything.  Outfielder Kyle Jensen hit 24 home runs in Double-A this season, but batted .234 doing it. 

 

Arsenal of Arms

The Brewers sent a number of interesting pitching prospects to the desert.

Johnny Hellweg (MIL)

Acquired in their mid-season trade with the Angels for Zack Greinke, Hellweg is among the hardest heading to the AFL, but strangely, his performance this season improves while his strikeouts dropped greatly.  The 6'9" righty throws the heck out of the ball, but doesn't always know where it's going.  The Brewers used him primarily in relief after acquiring him, but his role in the AFL remains to be seen.

Jimmy Nelson (MIL)

The 2012 second-rounder Nelson had a strong season, splitting time between High-A and Double-A.  He's another Brewers starter who could end up moving to the bullpen due to command issues, but they're not quite bad enough to force a move just yet.

Nick Bucci (MIL)

Bucci only made 10 starts this season, but they were exceptional, posting a 1.90 ERA overall, including posting a 10.5 K/9 rate in the Florida State League.  After making 20-plus starts in each of the past two seasons, Bucci will be looking to making up for lost time in Arizona.

 

Other Notable Pitchers

Zeke Spruill feels like he's been in the Braves farm system forever, but he's still just 22 and is coming off a decent season in Double-A.  Brian Flynn is looking to make a name for himself in the Marlins organization after coming over from the Tigers mid-season.  Former first-rounder Kyle Heckathorn is looking to bounce back after a disappointing season in Double-A.

 

 

Prospect Profile - Miles Head

Miles Head may not have been known to too many before he was shipped from Boston to Oakland this off-season as a part of the Andrew Bailey trade, but he's been known to prospect-followers for quite some time.

Drafted in the 26th round by the Red Sox in 2009, Head was bought out of a commitment to the University of Georgia with an over-slot $335,000 bonus.  At the time, Baseball America said:

If only Lane and Miles Head could share tools. Head has a bad body but is the best prep hitter in the state this year, in terms of pure hitting ability, and is a key Georgia recruit. He could go in the fifth to eighth round to a team that believes he can catch or hold down third base defensively. His arm is fringe-average, and he could be a playable defender at the college level. Then scouts could see if he improves his conditioning and tones up his body. He repeats his short swing and has some present strength, and he could contribute immediately with the Bulldogs next spring.

The ability was there, but scouts didn't like the body and weren't sure if he could handle any position other than first base.  Three years later, not much has changed.

Head played at short-season Lowell in 2010 and demonstrated great plate discipline, but little power.  But while his .669 OPS was unimpressive, his 16 doubles and 36:30 strike out to walk ratio in 272 plate appearances signified strong potential for the future.

That potential reared its head in 2011, when Head broke out in his first taste of full-season baseball.  Beginning the year in Low-A Greenville of the South Atlantic League, Head hit .338/.409/.612 in 66 games with 25 doubles and 15 home runs.  The breakout was needed, as the Red Sox had already determined that Head's future was at first base, not third.

The dominance of the Sally League earned Head a mid-season promotion to the difficult-on-hitters Carolina League.  Head certainly didn't dominate his new competition the same way, but he held his own, posting a .733 OPS in the remaining half-season.

The off-season brought a change for Head, as he was traded to Oakland (along with Ryan Sweeney and pitching prospect Rual Alcantara) for closer Andrew Bailey as a part of the Red Sox mismanaged off-season roster assembly.

Beginning back at High-A, Head is a prime example of the difference in hitting environments between the Carolina and California League, as well as the difference a year can make.  Head took the California League by storm, hitting .382/.433/.715 with 23 doubles and 18 home runs in 67 games.  The ridiculous hitting environments of the California League made it impossible to truly gauge Head, so the A's promoted him to Double-A for the remainder of the season.

Once again, a promotion brought Head back down to Earth, although he once again handled his new assignment admirably for a young player at a new level.  Head hit .272/.338/.404 with Midland, but once again, his power production dropped off dramatically.

The A's also tried Head back out at third base at both levels in an attempt to maximize his value and allow his bat to play more.  Reports on Head's defense at third base were far from glowing, with most implying that he could handle the position well enough to justify playing him there only if he hits like he did in the California League.

The future for Head is still largely the same as it was in 2009 when he was drafted, just not as far away.

The jury is still very much out on Head's future as a third baseman, but it doesn't look good for him playing there every day.  With enough experience, he may be able to play there occasionally, at least early in his career, but it's not going to be a long-term destination for him.

Which means he needs to hit.  Early in his career, Head demonstrated good plate discipline to go along with his power.  That has deteriorated as he has moved up the minor league ladder, which is not a good sign for his development.  If he is going to have value as a right-handed hitting first baseman, he'll need to continue to develop his power but also get on base.  The good news, if it continues to hold true, is that Head has a reverse platoon split, meaning that as a right-handed hitter, he actually hits right-handed pitching much better than he does left-handers.  That will keep him from being stuck on the short-end of a platoon if he gets a manager that actually looks at the numbers.

The other good news for Head is that he's still just 21.  He'll probably repeat the Texas League next season, at least to start the season, and still has plenty of time to work out the kinks offensively.  The A's will probably continue to work with him at third base, and should.  He'll never be great down there, but even if he can become passable, his bat plays much better and it will give him the flexibility to avoid being pigeon-holed at first.

Head still has the natural hitting ability that can't be taught and that alone will continue to push him up the minor league ranks and should give him a nice major league career.  The path of that career will be determined by his development at third base and his plate discipline.

 

Prospect of the Year Standings

With just a couple of weeks remaining in the minor league season, our Prospect of the Year Standings are really taking shape with a few of the game's top prospects within striking distance of the title.  As a reminder, here is a brief primer on how we keep these standings.

As of Friday, August 24th, here is our top-10:

1. Wil Myers, KC - 59 points (1 top finish, 6 places on the list)
2. Danny Hultzen, SEA - 53 (2, 4)
3. Trevor Bauer, ARI - 48 (0,6)
4. Jose Fernanzez, MIA - 44 (1,4)
5. Anthony Rizzo, CHC - 42 (1,4)
6T. Alen Hanson, PIT - 41 (1,5)
6T. Zack Wheeler, NYM - 41 (0,5)
8. Dan Straily, OAK - 39 (1,5)
9. Travis d'Arnaud, TOR - 38 (0,4)
10T. Javier Baez, CHC - 35 (0,3)
10T. Miles Head, OAK - 35 (0,5)