Last night, the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners hooked up in what, at the very least, has to be the most surprising trade of the off-season. The Mariners sent first-year pitcher Michael Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos to the Yankees in exchange for top prospect Jesus Montero and pitching prospect Hector Noesi, as reported in multiple places, including by Athony McCarron of the NY Daily News, Larry Stone of The Seattle Times, and initially by Greg Johns of MLB.com.
- Baseball America has scouting reports on all four players involved.
- Keith Law of ESPN.com gives a slight edge in the trade to the Mariners because of "the greater probability of the bat they acquired," essentially saying that Montero's hitting is the surest thing of any part of the trade, a statement that is probably true, but doesn't make the Mariners the winners here.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com notes that, compared to the other young, team-controlled pitchers traded this off-season (Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez), the Yankees didn't have to give up as much, because they weren't forced to include multiple other prospects to go along with their main trade chip.
- Josh Norris of The Trentonian, who watched Montero play closely while in the minors, loves the deal for both sides.
- Elsewhere on ESPN.com, it is pointed out that Pineda's struggles in the second half were due to an increased homerun rate and that he struggled last season against the AL East.
- Mike SIlva of NY Baseball Digest likes the trade for the Yankees.
But this trade is about much more than just Montero and Pineda. Hector Noesi will have a change to make the Mariners rotation this season, and profiles as a back-of-the-rotation arm or a mid-to-late bullpen arm. He is not a replacement for Pineda, however, or a potential closer, so he's more of a filler in the trade and adds to the Mariners solid pitching depth. Campos is the wild card in the trade, both because he's so far from the majors and because he has such a high ceiling. A live young arm with exceptional control, Campos is also still growing into his 6'4" frame and developing his off-speed pitches. He's a long way off for sure, but in a few years could swing this trade into the lopsided direction.
Perhaps the Mariners know something about Pineda that no one else does, but for me, the possibility of a Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Danny Hultzen 1-2-3 punch for a three or four year window would have been too much to trade away, especially in a stadium that negates major offensive performance anyway, and in exchange for a player that is essentially a DH. In addition, free agent bats are a significantly safer investment (Chone Figgins aside - that wasn't risky, it was just dumb) than long-term free agent pitchers, so their offensive woes could have been addressed when they were ready to make a run.
Ultimately, Montero had better hit, and hit a lot. Maybe the Mariners thought that Pineda's first half of the season was the best he will ever be, and if their right, then they were smart to sell high. But given what the Reds and Nationals had to give up to get Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez respectively, and given that Pineda is, at the very least, in that class of pitcher (albeit with less experience but more team-controlled years left), it is surprising the Mariners didn't get a few more minor pieces back in return, or surprising that they were forced to include a pitcher of Campos' potential.
