MLB Prospect Watch

Miguel Sano Promoted to Double-A, When Will He Move to First Base?

With professional baseball failing to provide him with any sort of challenge thus far, Miguel Sano is moving on from the Florida State League and will now try his hand in the Double-A Eastern League, reports Phil Miller of The Minnesota Star-Tribune.  Sano leaves his Ft. Myers Miracle behind having hit .330/.424/.655 on the season.

At this point, there as absolutely no questioning Sano's power.  The Twins slugger has established himself as the top power hitting prospect in all of baseball, and at the time of his promotion, he was leading the FSL in isolated slugging percentage (ISO) by 59 points over the second best player.  There were some questions at the lower levels of the minors whether his high strike out rates (26 percent last year, 25.1 percent this year) would effect the ability of his power to play in the majors, but at this point, the strikeouts appear to be as much a product of hitting for power and working deep counts as any inability to hit breaking pitches.

Double-A will be the biggest test, though.  The first advancement to the upper minors is when the breaking pitches get better and pitchers attack hitters with a plan.  How those walk and strikeout rates shift over the second half of the season will tell us a lot about the speed of Sano's assent to the majors.

The other factor will be his defense.  I discussed Sano in January and the few players in baseball history who have played third base at his size.  While he's listed at just 195 lbs. on both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, Sano is, in reality, over 235 pounds.  He made 42 errors at third base last season, although, to his credit, did make more of the plays he got to this season, making just 11 errors at the hot corner before his promotion.  That consistency gives him a fighting chance to stay at third base early in his career, but it's not a good one.

Sano is built like Miguel Cabrera, and likely won't be any better of a third baseman.  If he remains at third base, he would be one of the biggest third baseman ever, and that's if he stops growing.  Remember, he's still just 20 years old.

It's safe to say that Sano won't be a third baseman his entire career.  There's a chance he could do it early in his career, but continuing his development there will likely slow down his ETA in Minnesota.  Much like the Reds did with Billy Hamilton, a position change (over to first base) should allow Sano to get to the majors as soon as his bat is ready, which could be some time next year.

Prospect Moves - Zunino, Demny, Workman

Zunino Passed Over

When the Mariners passed over top prospect Mike Zunino in favor of minor league veteran Brandon Bantz, many assumed it was due to "Super 2" salary reasons.  But as Larry Stone of The Seattle Times points out, the reasons were more developmental than financial.  Read the entire article for a full explanation as to why, but it makes sense, given Zunino's struggles in Triple-A this season.

This time last year, Zunino was about to be selected third overall out of the University of Floria, and soon thereafter, he was tearing up every professional competitor he faced all the way through to the Arizona Fall League.  Whether the extended season is taking its toll on him this year or he simply came back down to Earth and is struggling, Zunino hasn't been the same player this season as last.

There's no need to worry just yet - lots of players struggle with their first taste of Triple-A.  Zunino is still a 22-year-old catcher with a .287 ISO in Triple-A.  But his strikeout rate, which has spiked from 19.5 percent in Low-A last year to 28.9 percent in Triple-A this year, is an issue that needs more time in the minors.

Credit the Mariners for recognizing that Zunino isn't quite ready yet and having the restraint to keep him in the minors until he is.

 

Demny Promoted

The Nationals have moved right-handed pitcher Paul Demny from Double to Triple-A, but Luke Erickson of NationalsProspects.com questions whether or not the move is a promotion or one made out of necessity.  Geoff Marrow, who covers the Harrisburg Senators, says it's a one-start move:

FYI: Paul Demny to Syracuse is, for now, a temporary move. Nothing is written in stone, but he's expected to return to Harrisburg.

— Geoff Morrow (@RageAgainstGMo) June 5, 2013

Demny has transformed into a different pitcher this year, raising his strikeout rate to over a batter per inning, a level he hasn't come close to since 2009, his first year in Low-A ball.

 

Workman Headed to Pawtucket

Brandon Workman has been promoted to Triple-A as well, according to Mike Antonellis of MiLB.com, but unlike Demny, Workman's move should be more permanent.

The Red Sox right-hander is also striking out hitters at a career-high rate, coming in at 10.14 K/9 this season despite never reaching a batter per inning before in his career.  Other than that, he's continued near his career norms, but the increased strikeout rate is a strong sign of further development, and he'll get his final test in Pawtucket.

Can Anthony Rendon Play Second Base?

The problem is that no one really knows for sure.  But we're going to find out pretty soon.

Anthony Rendon has been called up to Washington:

Rendon on the bench tonight.

— Adam Kilgore (@AdamKilgoreWP) June 4, 2013

Rendon is taking the roster spot of Danny Espinosa, who is heading to the disabled list with a myriad of injuries.  Rendon may not be in the starting lineup tonight, but he'll will be soon.  With only eight games under his belt at second base, we really don't know how this is going to go.  But given what we do know about Rendon, it's a transition he should be able to make.

Most people agree that Rendon has the potential to be a gold glove-caliber third baseman, which should translate into at least average play at second base, if not better.  The ability is there, but with any transition to second base, it's not the ability to field a ground ball and make a shorter throw that makes it difficult.  It's the plays with your back to an oncoming base runner that tend to be the problem.  With just eight games under his belt, we simply don't know how Rendon will handle these at first, but there's no reason to believe he can't eventually get the hang of them.

The question really is how the Nationals didn't manage to get Rendon more than eight games at the keystone this year.  They know he can play third, but they also know he's blocked there.  Ryan Zimmerman has his injury history which has already caused Rendon to be called up once this season, but I'm not suggesting that the Nationals abandon him at third altogether.  Just make it more of an even split so we don't have this situation:

Anthony Rendon last played 2nd base on an everyday basis back in Little League. Says he feels comfortable there now, footwork not a problem

— Dan Kolko (@masnKolko) June 4, 2013

During his time at Double-A Harrisburg, Rendon saw just five games at second base (out of 33) and got just 19 chances, turning one double play.  That, plus little league, isn't a lot of experience.  The Nats recently promoted him to Triple-A and announced that he would be playing second base there full time, both due to Espinosa's collection of minor injuries and his generally poor play.  But that was just over the weekend, and he got just three more games there before today.

Rendon will probably be fine if his long-term home is at second base, although this year's throwing problems for Zimmerman suggest that it won't be.  But the Nationals haven't been thinking long-term this season.  As manager Davey Johnson said earlier in the season, it's "World Series or bust."  That being the case, they should have spread his time out more evenly between second and third for this exact scenario.

Instead, Rendon will get thrown into the mix at the major league level, and because of his athletic ability, he'll probably hold his own.  But the Nationals could have a much better answer to an important question in the middle of a pennant race.

Tempering Expectations for Yasiel Puig

In a season as long as baseball, there are always injuries. For this reason, we knew we'd see Yasiel Puig in the majors at some point this season.

After a breakout spring, the Dodgers made the right decision in sending Puig to the minors to get a little more experience. After all, despite his emmense talent and ability, Puig still hadn't played organized, competitive baseball in over a year save for 82 plate apperances in rookie ball last season. But with a crowded yet injury-prone outfield that included Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp, it wasn't hard to see this opportunity coming for Puig.

The hype machine for Puig has been in full effect since he batted over .500 this spring, and .313/.383/.599 performance in Double-A Chattanooga hasn't done anything to slow it down. In fact, he was going faster than ever when he was arrested last month for an extreme speeding charge, only adding fuel to the skepticism that exists about his maturity.

In that regard, it may be a good thing that Puig is in the majors now where the Dodgers can keep a closer eye on him, but otherwise, there's little doubt that Puig is in the majors before the Dodgers would have liked. That being the case, it's going to be important for Dodgers' fans not to expect Mike Trout-type things out of Puig right away, a point made by Bill Shakin of The Los Angeles Times today. No matter how talented Puig may be, Trout's 2012 season was historic in the amount of success he was able to have and it's unlikely to be repeated up the freeway this year.

The more common (and perhaps ridiculous) comparisons that are being made for Puig, however, are Bo Jackson and Yoneis Cespedes, mainly for the lack of freak athletes who have displayed the combinations of size and speed featured by that select group. In running with those comparisons, however, it's important to point out that both players got by on pure athletic ability despite relatively undisciplined approaches to the game, most specifically in terms of plate discipline, but in the case of Cespedes, also because of his propensity to get thrown out on the bases.

Puig will undoubtedly flash us with displays of brilliance during this stretch in the majors, which could last just 11 days until Matt Kemp is slated to return from the disabled list but could also become a perminent address for the young Cuban. Between Andre Either's tenuous relationship with manager Don Mattingly and his utter lack of production, it's not hard to envision Puig performing well enough over the next two weeks to remain in the lineup even upon Kemp's return, especially after Mattingly's name-dropping of Trout as a possibility for the type of impact Puig might have on the moribund Dodgers.

But sandwiched between those flashes of brilliance are just as sure to be some struggles. Puig is just 22-years old, and despite an adequate walk rate of nine percent this year, his plate discipline has dropped each time he's moved up a level. If that trend continues into the majors and drops into the 5-6 percent range, he'll have to hit every bit of .300 to avoid making a ton of outs.

Yes, Puig could jump-start a Dodgers team in desperate need of an ass-kicking, and we saw in spring that even against major league competition, he can get as hot as hot can be. But none of that equals long-term sustained success. If Puig is going to travel down the same path as Cespedes, he'll have to develop on the fly and adjust-back when the league adjusts first to him, something Cespedes is struggling to do this season.

Until the league figures him out, however, we could see some really exciting stuff out of Puig, and that may have a more positive effect on the Dodgers than any home run he might hit.

Who Is Alex Wood?

In response to having to use their bullpen for seven innings of work on Wednesday, the Braves needed reinforcements heading into the weekend.  They'll be getting help in the form of left-hander Alex Wood, the team's second-round pick from the 2012 draft out of the University of Georgia, according to Tom Hart of FOX Sports.  A corresponding move to make room for Wood has not yet been announced.

Wood, 22, was 4-2 at Double-A Mississippi this season, with a 1.26 ERA and a 2.27 FIP after jumping up from his 13-start stint at Low-A Rome last season.  Wood's quick assent to the majors from his draft year is both a testament to his refinement and ability on the mound as well as baseball's earlier signing deadline.

Baseball America had Wood rated as the Braves number seven prospect entering the 2013 season, saying:

"He should move quickly through the system and likely will finish his first full pro season in Double-A. With a better breaking ball, he could become a solid No. 3 starter."

While Wood will still have plenty of time to fulfill that potential as a starter, the Braves plan to use him out of their bullpen for the time being.  That could be his ultimate destination, as Marc Hulet of FanGraphs.com wrote this off-season:

"My contact stated, “With a young kid like this… there is a lot to like.” However, you don’t see many starting pitchers with deliveries like Wood. For me, his mechanics scream “Reliever.”

Despite possible mechanical issues, it's hard to argue with Wood's results.  He's struck out over a batter per innings as a professional despite making a two-level jump this season, and has walked just 2.4 batters per nine innings.  The only issue with Wood should be his comfort level working as a reliever, having made just one relief appearance in his collegiate and professional careers, combined.

What should work, at least for the time being, is the hitch in his delivery that I've seen repeatedly described as "funk."  This video shows you what I mean.  That funk could be very tough on left-handed hitters the first time they see it.

Wood will give the Braves two things - a second lefty in their pen and a long-reliever.  The Braves had not said how long Wood will be in the majors, and this could be a temporary move to give their bullpen a fresh arm after a long night.  But their long night could also be a good excuse to bring Wood to the majors and test out his mettle in a bullpen role before the games get too consequential as they attempt to see if Wood can replace Johnny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty or whether a trade is necessary.