MLB Prospect Watch

Cardenas Claimed by Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have claimed INF Adrian Cardenas off of waivers from the Oakland A's, reports Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.

Drafted 37th overall by the Phillies in the 2006 draft out of a South Florida high school, Cardenas has always been able to hit.  In fact, he holds a career .303 batting average in over 2800 minor league at-bats.  The problem with Cardenas is that he's always been a "tweener."

Drafted as a shortstop, he never profiled to stay at the position.  Some scouts envisioned a second baseman, while some saw him as a third baseman and some thought he'd have to end up in left field.  The Phillies shifted him to second base in 2007 before trading him to Oakland in the Joe Blanton deal in 2008.  

Cardenas continued to hit for average, but unfortunately never developed any power, making him a less than ideal fit for corner positions like third base and left field.  His defense at second base was average at best, and his plate discipline remained below average, making him a less than desirable top-of-the-order hitter.

With hitting for average becoming his only plus tool, Cardenas has developed into something of a Placido Polanco-type player, but with below average defense, which means a player without a ton of value.  In fact, in a search of players who played either second base, third base of left field and hit above .300 with an OBP below .370 and less than 10 home runs, Baseball-Reference.com came up with Polanco and Bobby Richardson as the players with the most similar seasons (8), but both of them were good defenders.  After that it was Mark Grudzieanek (6), who played more SS than Cardenas ever will, but is the best example of what he could be once he moved to second base - a solid average hitter with good doubles power that doesn't walk enough or have quite enough power to be completely effective.

Cardenas could profile now as a versatile bench player, who could enter a game late as a pinch hitter and play a number of defensive positions, giving a team versatility, as long as none of those positions need to be played well.

It's not a great role, but if he continues to hit for average, teams will continue to give him a chance.

Jesus Montero To Seattle - Links and Reactions

Last night, the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners hooked up in what, at the very least, has to be the most surprising trade of the off-season.  The Mariners sent first-year pitcher Michael Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos to the Yankees in exchange for top prospect Jesus Montero and pitching prospect Hector Noesi, as reported in multiple places, including by Athony McCarron of the NY Daily News, Larry Stone of The Seattle Times, and initially by Greg Johns of MLB.com.

• Baseball America has scouting reports on all four players involved.  
• Keith Law of ESPN.com gives a slight edge in the trade to the Mariners because of "the greater probability of the bat they acquired," essentially saying that Montero's hitting is the surest thing of any part of the trade, a statement that is probably true, but doesn't make the Mariners the winners here.  
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.com notes that, compared to the other young, team-controlled pitchers traded this off-season (Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez), the Yankees didn't have to give up as much, because they weren't forced to include multiple other prospects to go along with their main trade chip.  
• Josh Norris of The Trentonian, who watched Montero play closely while in the minors, loves the deal for both sides.  
• Elsewhere on ESPN.com, it is pointed out that Pineda's struggles in the second half were due to an increased homerun rate and that he struggled last season against the AL East.
• Mike SIlva of NY Baseball Digest likes the trade for the Yankees.

But this trade is about much more than just Montero and Pineda.  Hector Noesi will have a change to make the Mariners rotation this season, and profiles as a back-of-the-rotation arm or a mid-to-late bullpen arm.  He is not a replacement for Pineda, however, or a potential closer, so he's more of a filler in the trade and adds to the Mariners solid pitching depth.  Campos is the wild card in the trade, both because he's so far from the majors and because he has such a high ceiling.  A live young arm with exceptional control, Campos is also still growing into his 6'4" frame and developing his off-speed pitches.  He's a long way off for sure, but in a few years could swing this trade into the lopsided direction.

Perhaps the Mariners know something about Pineda that no one else does, but for me, the possibility of a Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Danny Hultzen 1-2-3 punch for a three or four year window would have been too much to trade away, especially in a stadium that negates major offensive performance anyway, and in exchange for a player that is essentially a DH.  In addition, free agent bats are a significantly safer investment (Chone Figgins aside - that wasn't risky, it was just dumb) than long-term free agent pitchers, so their offensive woes could have been addressed when they were ready to make a run.

Ultimately, Montero had better hit, and hit a lot.  Maybe the Mariners thought that Pineda's first half of the season was the best he will ever be, and if their right, then they were smart to sell high.  But given what the Reds and Nationals had to give up to get Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez respectively, and given that Pineda is, at the very least, in that class of pitcher (albeit with less experience but more team-controlled years left), it is surprising the Mariners didn't get a few more minor pieces back in return, or surprising that they were forced to include a pitcher of Campos' potential.

Padres, Cubs Swap Rizzo for Casher and Na

The San Diego Padres unclogged their roadblock at first base, trading prospect Anthony Rizzo to the Chicago Cubs for Andrew Casher and Kyung-Min Na, reports ESPNChicago.com and Bill Center of The San Diego Union-Tribune.

Rizzo became expendable after the team acquired Yonder Alonso from the reds in the team's first blockbuster of the off-season.  The acquisition of Rizzo for the Cubs presumably takes them out of the running for Prince Fielder's services.

For the Padres, the fact that they traded Rizzo is not surprising, but the return might be.  Cashner, who no longer qualifies as a prospect or for rookie status, is a power arm that was once one of the more highly touted pitchers in the Cubs organization.  He battled injury last year, however, and has had a history of them throughout his professional career.  He has made more than 11 starts in a season only once, and has never thrown more than 100 1/3 innings in a season.  Corey Brock of MLB.com tweets that the Padres could consider Cashner for a bullpen role, and that may be the best spot for Cashner to have success.

Kyung-Min Na is an athletic 20-year-old center fielder who has yet to play a full season in the minors.  Through 519 minor league plate appearances, he has a .244/.335/.284 line, showing a decent eye at the plate but absolutely no power, and good speed (26 steals) but no idea how to use it (15 caught steals).  His athleticism in center field could be a valuable asset for the Padres in spacious Petco Park, but he's a long way from being able to use it in the majors.

With the likelihood that Na could never make it to the majors, it appears that the Padres were content to trade Rizzo for a potential late inning reliever.  Despite Rizzo's extreme struggles in the majors last year, his value had not dropped to pennies on the dollar, which seems to be what the Padres got in return.

Nationals Acquire Gio Gonzalez for Four Prospects

The Washington Nationals pulled the trigger on a trade for left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez, sending prospects Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, and Tom Milone to the Oakland A's in return.  Norris, Peacock and Cole were all listed in Baseball America's Top-10 Nationals prospects.

Norris likely has the highest ceiling of the four prospects, but the Nationals have significant organizational depth at catcher, and could afford to make a deal.  Despite batting just .210 last season, he still demonstrated strong plate discipline and solid power.  Matt Eddy of Baseball America has a complete scouting report on all four prospects, while Bernie Pleskoff of MLB.com says both teams fulfilled their goals.

Keith Law of ESPN.com has his own breakdown of the trade, and believes the A's got both quality and quantity in this deal.  On the other hand, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs.com wonders where the rest of the return is for the A's.

I happen to side with Hulet on this one.  While the A's got good depth, the Nationals didn't give up anything they can't live without, or replace in their next draft.  They didn't have to part with Bryce Harper (not that they would have), and while Cole has a high ceiling, he's got quite a way to go to get to the majors.  Peacock has turned himself into a nice prospect, but his ceiling isn't any higher than what Gonzalez is right now.  Norris should be a nice player, but the Nationals are one of the few teams that had the depth to part with a power-hitting young catcher.

The Nationals unloaded some of their minor league depth, but did so in order to improve their major league pitching depth.  While the trade is by no means lopsided, I don't think the Nationals will regret anything they've lost.

Padres Get Three Prospects From Reds For Latos

The Cincinnati Reds acquired pitcher Mat Latos from the San Diego Padres in exchange for Edison Volquez and a trio of prospects - 1B Yonder Alonso, C Yasmani Grandal, and relief pitcher Brad Boxberger, announced the Reds.  The deal is a steep price for the Reds to pay, but greatly upgrades their pitching staff.

Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeauges.com likes the trade for the Reds, while Mike Axisa of FanGraphs.com thinks the Padres did a nice job getting long-term solutions back at first base and catcher.

Alonso is the Reds top hitting prospect, but was blocked in Cincinnati by Joey Votto.  His role in San Diego remains to be seen, as the Padres traded for 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo last off-season, and this deal could mean Rizzo spends more time in Triple-A this season than originally expected.

Grandal is a fellow first-round pick (along with Alonso), taken in 2010, and split last season between High-A and Double-A, having success at both levels.  He could start back at Double-A this season, or could begin in Triple-A, and either way could see some time in the majors towards the end of the season.

Boxberger was a supplemental first-round pick in 2009.  Taken 43rd overall, he's the lowest drafted of the three prospects traded in this deal.  Boxberger has pitched primarily in relief and saw time in Triple-A last season.  He should compete for a bullpen spot with the Padres this spring.

The real question in this deal is what the Padres are going to do with Alonso.  Rizzo was the centerpiece of last year's big trade and was clearly the Padres first baseman of the future.  Given his struggles in the majors last year, that future could be a year later than expected, but the possibility of Alsonso and Rizzo playing together is slim.  The Reds have already explored the idea of moving Alonso to the outfield, and that switch would be even more difficult at the spacious Petco Park.  It remains to be seen if the Padres will follow this deal up with another deal, moving one of its first baseman for additional pieces.