MLB Prospect Watch

Biddle Not Ready to Replace Halladay

The Phillies need a starting pitcher, and their promotion of Joe Savery to take the spot of Roy Halladay still leaves them without one when Doc's spot in the rotation comes back around in a few days.  Savery is a bullpen arm and will not be used as a starter, which leaves another move pending this week.

But that move will not involve Jesse Biddle, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

Biddle, who was already on most people's radar as the best prospect in the Phillies organization, went even more mainstream a two weeks ago when the left-hander struck out 16 batters in a start.  He followed it up with a 10 strike out start his next time out.  But as Salisbury points out, he still has his work to do in the developmental process, as he failed to get out of the first inning on Saturday after walking four batters.

But even if Biddle was still striking out double-digit batters every time out, he still wouldn't be the right option, for two reasons.

First, the Phillies have other options who have more minor league experience and polish.  Salisbury points out Tyler Cloyd and Adam Morgan as the two most likely candidates, and Morgan appears to be the best option if the days of rest line up properly.  Morgan emerged last season as a potential big league starter, posting a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio in High-A ball before a late-season promotion to Double-A.  

The Phillies gave him an aggressive assignment this season, but he's held his own in Triple-A this year, and continues to demonstrate great control, even with the dip in his strike out numbers this season.  Cloyd, who made a late-season cameo in the majors last season, could be a placeholder in the Phillies rotation, but Morgan is a pitcher who could be in the Phillies plans by next season, and giving him a taste of the majors this season could provide him with valuable experience without rushing him too badly.

Which is exactly what they'd be doing with Biddle.

The issue with Biddle is more than that he's not ready for the majors - which he's not.  It's that he will be soon enough, and the Phillies are going to need him when he is.

The Phillies have so much money tied up in large contracts that they need to get production from young, inexpensive players.  They don't have any of those players this season, which is why they are struggling so much and getting such little production from their non-star players.  With Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Ryan Howard all on the books long-term, the Phillies are going to need production in 2014-17 from Biddle at the league-minimum rate.  If they call him up now, they will waste one of those seasons on this year when Biddle will be at less than his full potential and value.

That type of short-term planning is part of how the Phillies got themselves in the financial bind they're in now, so it's good that they're keeping Biddle in the minors despite their rotation opening.  Regardless of their reasoning, they've made the right decision, as long as they stick to it.

Archie Bradley Promoted to Double-A

The Arizona Diamondbacks have promoted one of their top pitching prospects Archie Bradley to Double-A Mobile, Bradley himself said on Twitter on Wednesday night.

Bradley was the 7th overall pick in the 2011 draft, a prep pick out of Oklahoma who also had scholarship offers to play quarterback for the University of Oklahoma.  He and Dylan Bundy were generally considered the best high school pitching prospects in the nation that year.  Bradley threw just two professional innings in his draft year.

His professional career really got under way last season in South Bend, where he spent the entire season as a 19-year-old full-time starting pitcher in the Midwest League, no small feat in its own right.  Over the course of his 27 starts, Bradley showed flashes of why he was selected so high, posting a 3.84 ERA while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings - a total that would be impressive for any pitcher and is even more noteworthy for a player competing against older hitters.

The only issue for Bradley last season was his control.  Bradley led the Midwest League with 84 walks, good for a 5.6 BB/9 rate, at least twice as high as the Diamondbacks would like it to be.  It was, essentially, the only flaw in an otherwise dominant season, but a concerning fact if it became a trend this season.

Well, it didn't.

In five starts in the hitter-friendly California League, Bradley has struck out even more batters and gotten his walk rates under control.  Over 28 2/3 innings, Bradley has struck out 43 batters to just 10 walks (a 13.5 K/9 rate against 3.1 BB/9).

That was all the Diamondbacks needed to see.  Whether they simply wanted to get him out of the California League and into a more hitter-neutral environment before any damage was done or if they feel he's ready to be on the fast track many anticipated when he was drafted remains to be seen, as the team hasn't officially made any announcement yet regarding his promotion, and likely won't provide us with an explanation anyway.  

Diamondbacks fans should, by no means, read into this move as an indication that Bradley is in any way knocking on the doorstep of the major leagues.  Still just 20-years-old, Bradley still has a lot of work to do to refine his natural abilities.  His mid-90's fastball and power curve ball are potential plus pitches, but he still needs a lot of work learning how to command them within the strike zone more effectively, and his change-up remains a work in progress and will be a necessary tool at the upper levels of the minors.

Still, by making a move like this so early in the season, the Diamondbacks are simultaneously rewarding Bradley for his improvement while protecting their prized prospect from the difficult task of pitching in the California League as the temperatures begin to rise in the summer.

This move indicates that the Diamondbacks do not play to have Bradley spend an entire year at each minor league level if not necessary, potentially speeding up his timetable to the majors to sometime towards the end of next season, obviously depending on how he pitches over the next 12-15 months.

 

Marlins Rush Marcell Ozuna in Latest Desperate Move

It's not as though we didn't know the Marlins were desperate, but that doesn't make it any easier to watch them continue to rush prospects to the majors.

In response to the latest injury to star Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins have called up outfield prospect Marcell Ozuna and inserted him directly into their starting lineup, this despite his having just 10 games of experience above A-ball.  In addition to his lack of experience, the 22-year-old Dominican native is an incredibly raw prospect at the plate, especially with his approach.

Ozuna, like so many young power hitters, has had issues with plate discipline and strikeouts.  The right-handed hitter has hit 22 home runs or more in each of the past three minor league seasons, but also has a 341-to-109 strike out to walk ratio over that time.  Last year, Ozuna put together a nice, but not exceptional, year at High-A Jupiter as a 21-year-old, hitting .266/.328/.476 in a full season there with 27 doubles and 24 home runs.

Ozuna is a physical specimen, with the type of raw power that organizations wish they could teach.  He also has a free-swinging approach, one that the Marlins determined needed more work in the Florida State League to begin this season.  After just four games there, he was bumped to Double-A, where he was red-hot for a 10-game stint.  But even while hot -he hit five home runs for Jacksonville - he struck out nine times.

Eric Weston of FishStripes.com makes the case that the red-hot Ozuna could jump-start the Marlins offense, and explains the lack of other outfield options on the 40-man roster.  Both of those facts may be true, but neither is a reasonable excuse for rushing Ozuna to the majors.

Ozuna has the potential to be an impact player, providing 20-30 home runs annually along with potentially-plus defense in a corner outfield position.  He will never be confused for a patient hitter and will always battle contact issues, but he has the potential to develop his approach enough to allow his power to play at the major league level.  In fact, as Weston points out, his strike out rates have declined in each of the past two seasons.  But by jumping Ozuna directly to the majors, the Marlins have greatly increased the chances of stunting his growth.  

Here's a similar situation where this happened before:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
2001	19	Dayton	MIDW	A	CIN	135	565	511	87	135	25	5	26	113	26	10	33	177	.264	.327	.485	.813	248	6	17	0	4	1
2002	20	Chattanooga	SOUL	AA	CIN	105	436	388	47	99	23	1	11	47	8	0	36	126	.255	.330	.405	.735	157	9	9	0	3	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/30/2013.

The organization and teams may have given it away, but can you guess the prospect?  Those are the final two minor league seasons of Wily Mo Pena before the Reds called him to the big leagues, at least one year too early.

Much like Ozuna, Pena was a physically gifted power hitter with extreme strike out rates thanks to an extremely aggressive approach at the plate.  Pena put together a few above-average years thanks to tremendous raw talent, but ultimately was never able to put his abilities to full use in the majors.  Would that have been different if he had been left in the minors until he was 22?  We'll never know.  But it couldn't have hurt, and rushing him certainly didn't help.

Ozuna was already swinging and missing too much against competition in the low minors, and that flaw will be exposed even further in the majors, much in the same way it was for Pena.  Ozuna's numbers aren't quite that dramatic, but they are in the same mold, and he has been older for his levels of competition than was Pena.

The Marlins were limited in their choices for outfielders already on the 40-man roster (a predicament they've put themselves in), but there were still plenty of options within the organization that would have been better than Ozuna.

Even if Ozuna comes in hot and helps jump start the Marlins pathetic offense, it will be only a temporary jump, equivalent to a cup of coffee attempting to get a worker through a all 24-hour shift - it may help for a short time, but it's not a permanent solution.

Ozuna has a chance to be a part of the long-term solution in Miami, but it's not going to happen this year.  Exposing him to the majors now, and especially leaving him there for a large portion of this season, without having spent any significant time in Double or Triple-A facing more advanced off-speed pitches from older pitchers, exposes him and could ruin his development.

Ozuna is simply not ready to hit major league pitching, and the league will show that fact sooner rather than later.  The Marlins can only help that the exposure doesn't do permanent damage.

Rondon Back in Detroit, Not as Closer

After essentially being handed the Tigers closer's role before spring training, Bruce Rondon was unable to snag the de fact title in March and was sent down to Triple-A Toledo to get his command under control.  Now, Rondon is back in Detroit, taking the place of the injured Octavio Dotel in the Tigers bullpen, according to Jason Beck of MLB.com.  In a related topic, Beck also reports that the Tigers have also re-signed last year's closer Jose Valverde to a major league contract, and they plan to immediately use him as their closer.

For Rondon, this means a chance to work in the big leagues in low-leverage situations, at least for the time being.  The biggest knock on Rondon, who has 100-plus-mph stuff, has been his ability to throw strikes, averaging 4.4 BB/9 last season and 7.6 the year prior to that.  In his brief time in Triple-A this year, however, Rondon walked just two batters in 7 2/3 innings, a marked improvement.

It remains to be seen, of course, how he handles major league hitters, but he will now get that opportunity, and will do so without the pressure that comes with holding a lead in the ninth inning.  That opportunity may present itself to Rondon once he gets his feet wet, if he proves to be the Tigers best reliever, something he is wholly capable of, talent-wise.  There is a reason, after all, that the Tigers waited until now to re-sign Valverde, and only a portion of that has anything to do with Rondon's presence in the organization.

The Tigers don't know what they will get out of Valverde, but they know they need more talent in their bullpen in any way, shape or form.  Valverde has proved to be effective in the past, and Rondon is clearly talented.  The question for Rondon will be whether or not he can effectively use that talent against major league hitters.

If he proves himself, and Valverde proves to be closer to the version of himself that the Tigers chose not to re-sign, then there's no reason that Rondon can't be the Tigers closer by playoff time.  There's a lot that has to happen between now and then, however, and electing to give him some major league experience in the 6th and 7th innings is a good plan by the Tigers.

Jonathan Pettibone to Debut for Phillies

Right-hander Jonathan Pettibone will make his major league debut on Monday, getting the start for the Philadelphia Phillies against the Pittsburgh Pirates, reports Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer.  Pettibone replaces the injured John Lannan in the Phillies rotation.

Pettibone, a 3rd round pick by the Phillies in 2008, was the fourth ranked prospect in the Phillies farm system according to Baseball America, and the highest ranked right-handed pitcher.  PhuturePhillies.com said the following about Pettibone:

Pettibone is a solid pitcher, he will show you a low-90s fastball with some natural sink, an average slider that can sometimes get loopy, an in progress cutter, and a plus changeup.  The command is above average and he has a good feel for pitching.  Pettibone looked like he was major league ready heading into the year and he will get the opportunity to prove it.  He is a #4 starter long term who has the frame to be a workhorse if he can get his command and pitch count under control.

Pettibone isn't a future ace by any means, but there's no reason to believe he can't be a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter in a mold similar to Kyle Kendrick (although he's not nearly the sinker/ground ball type of pitcher that Kendrick is).  His plus change-up gives him a chance to be better against left-handed hitters than Kendrick is, however.  He is not a big strike out pitcher, recording only 6.4 K/9 over the course of his minor league career, but he does generally demonstrate good control, walking just 2.6 batters per nine innings.

This season, however, he's gotten rocked at the Triple-A level, allowing 10 earned runs over 9 1/3 innings in two starts, which of course means nothing other than that he wasn't pitching very well to start the season.

The Phillies have not announced a timetable for Lannan, who has not pitched well as a Phillie, but it's reasonable to think that a few strong starts from Pettibone in Lannan's absence could afford him the opportunity to stick around in the rotation.  Even if Lannan returns when healthy, Pettibone pitching well would give the team another rotation option and allow them to be less patient with Lannan.