Baseball is a cyclical game.
Trends come and go, as do theories on how to build a roster and fill out
a lineup. In the 80’s, speed was all the
rage. Players were stealing bases in
bunches, and leadoff hitters were expected to run. Constantly.
Getting on base and avoiding making outs was of secondary concern.
Consider this stat:
In the 1980’s, there were 36 seasons in which a player had 60 steals or
more. Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines
combined for 14 of them , and were undoubtedly the best leadoff hitters of that
era, combining both the ability to steal bases with the ability to get on base
in the first place. The twelve highest
on base percentages of those 36 seasons belonged to either Raines or
Henderson. The average OBP in seasons
not by one of those two? .339.
The 1990’s saw a decline in running and an increase in power
that led to leadoff hitters routinely posting 20+ homer seasons and managers
afraid to send runners when it was so easy to drive them in from first base.
The 2000’s, thanks in part to advanced metrics and Moneyball, saw an increased emphasis on
avoiding making outs. On base percentage
became the latest rage, and even players who couldn’t hit, run, or field had
value because they didn’t make outs.
So now, as we enter the next decade, what are teams looking
for? Everything, of course. We want it all, and we are developing the
athletes to do it. Henderson’s
combination of speed and power was ahead of his time, and Kenny Lofton used his
on base ability and game-changing speed to remain as a weapon in a
power-drenched era. In today’s game, we
are seeing an influx of players like Hanley Ramirez and Andrew McCutchen who
have the ability to make 20-20 seasons routine, and 20-50 seasons a possibility
(there have been 19 such season in history, Henderson has 4 of them).
Not all leadoff hitters have the ability to conquer such
feats at the major league level, but the next generation of leadoff hitters
looks bright as they rise through the minors.
The following is a list of the top-20 potential leadoff hitters in the
minor leagues.
20 – Eric Young, Jr. (COL) – 2B/CF – Triple-A
You know how for some things we say “the whole is greater
than the sum of its parts?” Eric Young,
Jr. appears to be the opposite. On
paper, it seems like he should be a fantastic prospect. He has a career line of .290/.382/.412 in the
minors and has stolen over 40 bases a season for 4 straight years. Yet he can’t seem to crack the Rockies lineup
at either 2B or CF, despite strong performances in the upper levels of the
minor leagues. Why? Some scouts see him as a 4-A player who whose
bat isn’t strong enough to hit at the major league level, a notion which his
Major League Equivalents support (career MLE of .214/.276/.291 thanks to
playing in strong hitters leagues and parks his entire career). Others cite his defense at 2B as being too
unreliable. At 25, time is running for
Young as a prospect, but his ability to get on base and steal them once he’s
there could still work at the top of a lineup.
If only he could get a chance.
19 – Logan Watkins (CHC) – SS/2B – Low-A
Watkins most visible asset when watching him play is his
speed, but it has yet to translate into premier base stealing ability. Fortunately, Watkins can hit too, albeit not
with much power yet, and has enough eye at the plate to be an effective leadoff
hitter. Right now, Watkins profiles as a
middle infielder who will be able to hit at the major league level if he gets a
little stronger, something which is certainly possible given that he is only
20-years-old.
18 – Derrik Gibson (BOS) – SS/2B – Low-A
Gibson is a top-notch athlete who has a naturally patient
approach at the plate and plus speed, making him a prototypical leadoff hitter
assuming he can hit enough to be in the top of a lineup. In 2009, he showed that ability hitting
.290/.395/.380 in the New York/Penn League, serving as a nice rebound season
after a rough first stint in the league in 2008. The possibility of Gibson at the top of an
always potent Boston lineup hinges on his ability to hit at higher levels in
the next few years.
17 – Xavier Avery (BAL) – CF – High-A
Avery makes the list because scouts compare him to Carl
Crawford and Kenny Lofton, but at this point he’s more style than substance. The difference between Avery and those two at
this point is simply the ability to hit.
Scouts think Avery will hit, but he hasn’t shown enough of it yet. Fortunately, the un-teachable aspects of the
game (like great speed) are already there, so if and when he develops as a
hitter, look out.
16 – Matthew Angle (BAL) – CF – Triple-A
Angle is the exact opposite of Avery, in almost every
sense. He could play defensively in the
majors right now, and might be if it wasn’t for that Adam Jones fella in
Baltimore (or because he got a little banged up in spring training and hasn’t
played yet this season). There’s not a
whole lot of projection left with Angle – he is what he is. He’s a hard-nosed leadoff hitter who embraces
that role and gets the most out of his plus speed and contact abilities. Of course, because of that, he hits for
virtually no power. In order for his bat
to play at the major league level, he will have to excel at getting on base, not just be above average, and that
difference will determine whether he becomes the next Brett Butler or Jason
Tyner.
15 – Anthony Gose (PHI) – CF – High-A
Part of a super toolsed-out 2008 draft by the Phillies, Gose
was the third of three raw outfielders with plus speed and questionable
baseball ability taken by the eventual champs in the top-51 picks. Gose is also the only one of the three that
has had any production to speak of.
While his hitting abilities have yet to completely come around, Gose did
manage to hit .259 in his first full season in A-ball, as an 18 year old. More importantly, he split time as a pitcher
and hitter in high school, so the Phillies believe that focusing solely at the
plate can only help his development.
Most importantly however, and the main reason he’s on this list, were
his 76 steals in his first season, which is an impressive enough number by
itself, but is more impressive when you realize that he’s doing it based on
pure speed rather than base running instincts.
Once he learns how to read pitchers, he could be unstoppable on the
bases. Developmentally as a hitter, 2010
is a huge season for Gose, in which the Phillies will see if he is just a
burner who won’t be able to hit at the major league level or a potential
game-changer at the top of the lineup.
14 – A.J. Pollock (ARI) – CF – Low-A
Pollock’s placement on this list was a tough one, partly
because of the little professional experience he has had, and partly because
scout’s views differ on his overall ability.
A strong case could be made for him being higher, but I’ll reserve that
honor until I see some production on the field.
The D-Backs drafted Pollock with one of their two first round picks this
past season, and he responded with a solid half-season after signing. The question, however, is what indication that
performance is of his abilities.
Pollack, a college hitter, had an advanced approach for the competition
he was seeing in the Midwest League, and may have been able to parlay that into
a successful season. He doesn’t have the
blazing speed of many on this list, but should be able to stay in centerfield
and managed to steal 10 bases in a half-season last year. He does, however, have a leadoff-hitters
approach at the plate, spraying line drives to all fiends and focusing on
getting on base. For now, Pollock is out
with a fractured growth plate and has yet to play this season, so the D-Backs
will have to wait to see how his bat plays at higher levels
13 – Chase D’Arnaud (PIT) – SS – Double-A
D’Arnaud fits in the same category as Pollock, but we know more
about him. A middle infielder who is at
short stop now but could end up at second base, D’Arnaud doesn’t have the
blazing speed of many leadoff hitters, but still managed to steal 31 bases last
season. What he does have is a
professional hitting approach and a good eye at the plate. D’Arnaud’s skill set probably fits best as a
two hitter on a team with more of a traditional leadoff hitter ahead of him,
but in order to fill either role, he will have to cut back on the
strikeouts. One strikeout every 5.75
at-bats is just too many for a guy with a .432 career slugging percentage.
12 – Jemile Weeks (OAK) – 2B – Double-A
Rickie’s little brother may turn out to be the player we’ve
all been expecting Rickie to be all along, although Jemile’s older brother had
better minor league numbers at a younger
age in the same levels. The main thing’s
Jemile does better than Rickie is make contact and steal bases. While Rickie struck out 107 times in his
first full season, but Jemile managed to keep that number at almost half. Jemile’s development will hinge directly on
how well he is able to focus on being the leadoff hitter then A’s want him to
be and if he can avoid the temptation to try and hit for power. His speed/hitting ability/plate discipline
combination is good enough to be a major league leadoff hitter, but he’ll have
to commit to wanting that role.
11 – Michael Brantley (CLE) – CF – Triple-A
Brantley technically just exhausted his rookie status (and
thus his prospect status according to most publications), but I’m going to let
it slide since he just passed it this week and is back in the minors again
after spending the first two weeks in Cleveland. Brantley’s entire value falls in his ability
to get on base (which he does very well) and his ability to turn those singles
and walks into doubles by stealing bases (which he has done with 81%
effectiveness in the minors). He’s an
above-average centerfielder who would be an excellent left-fielder for a team
who could afford to trade defense for power at a corner outfield spot. The Indians’ willingness to make that
sacrifice will determine whether or not he is ever their leadoff hitter on a
consistent basis. He could, however,
profile as a Juan Pierre-type player with a slightly lower batting average but
more walks.
10 – Reymond Fuentes (BOS) – CF – Low-A
Fuentes has the speed, bat, and bloodlines (he’s Carlos
Beltran’s cousin) to be a major league leadoff hitter, so the only thing that
could derail him is his eye at the plate.
It’s nothing for the Red Sox to worry about yet because Fuentes is so
young and has only played one-half of a professional season, but they will need
to see an improvement in his 24/7 K:BB ratio if they continue to develop him as
their leadoff hitter of the future.
Early returns in 2010 have been good (4 walks to 8 strikeouts in 39 at-bats),
and the fleet-footed Fuentes is also a perfect 6-for-6 stealing bases through
only 12 games, so the Red Sox have reasons to be optimistic. As long as Fuentes can walk at a respectable
rate, he should hit for enough average to be an effective leadoff hitter.
9 – Ben Revere (MIN) – CF – Double-A
The first thing that stands out about Revere’s stat line is
the .378 batting average that he put up in 2008 in the Midwest League. That, of course, was fueled by a .414 BABIP
that would be impossible to maintain.
The good news, however, is that he has hit no lower than .312 in any
other season, with more reasonable BABIP rates.
Revere’s ability to hit for contact is his most overwhelming tool (he’s
never struck out more than 35 times in a season) and while his eye at the plate
is not as particular as the Twins would like, if he continues to hit for a high
enough average, it will be enough. He
will have to maintain his ability to hit for average, however, because he has
virtually no power to speak of.
8 – Tyson Gillies (PHI) – CF – Double-A
Gillies came to the Phillies this off-season after a
dominant offensive season in the hitter-friendly California League. While scouts love his skill set and his
production has matched his ability on the field, his biggest obstacle will be
proving he can be productive outside of High Desert. This could be a make or break year for
Gillies, as he faces both better competition in Double-A for the first time and
the hitter-unfriendly park conditions in Reading. His development will depend on just how much
of his previous production was fueled by park effects and how much of his
production he can sustain as me faces more challenges.
7 – Peter Bourjos (LAA) – CF – Triple-A
Bourjos always had speed, and because he knows how to use
it, he’s always had value as a prospect because of his defensive
abilities. But his season last year, in
which he more than doubled his previous single-season walk totals without
losing any production as a hitter, paved the way for a path to the top of the
Angels’ lineup. He will have to show he
can sustain that plate discipline this season at Triple-A, because without it
he does not high for a high enough average to head a potent lineup, but
assuming he can maintain a respectable walk rate, his speed at the top of the
lineup should be a fun toy for Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia to enjoy.
6 – Jared Mitchell (CWS) – CF – Low-A (injured)
The only reason Mitchell is this low in the list is the
devastating Achilles injury he suffered this spring, which likely knocks him
out for the season. Mitchell’s
athleticism is off-the-charts, as you could imagine for someone who played on a
national championship football team.
Mitchell actually managed to get 115 at-bats last season after signing,
and showed an advanced approach at the plate for someone who has yet to focus
on baseball full time. His strike out
rate is way too high, but if he can get that under control, his patient eye at
the plate, strength to drive the ball in the gaps, and plus speed could make
him a fixture atop the White Sox lineup.
The only question is whether or not he retains his athleticism after the
injury.
5 – Dee Gordon (LAD) – SS – Double-A
Gordon likely has the biggest gap between best and
worst-case scenario of any prospect on this list. The top prospect in a Dodgers’ system with a
great history of churning out homegrown major league stars, Gordon is unlike
many raw players in that he has still produced great minor league numbers. Most prospects that require projection from scouts
struggle until they make the adjustments necessary to put their immense talents
to use on a baseball field. Scouts see
Gordon and point out parts of his game that need refinement, yet he has a
career batting average of .311. He needs
to be more disciplined at the plate in order to be a leadoff hitter, yet his
walk rate is only slightly below where it needs to be despite what scouts
observe as an inability to recognize pitches consistently. Gordon would be a good prospect, even if he
had hit his ceiling, but he might not be a great leadoff prospect. If he continues to progress the way scouts
believe he can, he could be one of the most dynamic leadoff men in the game.
4 – Mike Trout (LAA) – CF – Low-A
Where as scouts look at Dee Gordon and see an athlete
learning to play baseball, they see Mike Trout and see a pure baseball
player. Trout was a 1st round
prep draft pick this past year, yet his refined approach at the plate and advanced
hitting approach for a high school player led to a .352 batting average in
2009. He’s off to an even better start
in the Midwest League this season, currently hitting .355. Trout demonstrated all the necessary
attributes for a leadoff hitter: good eye at the plate, plus hitting ability,
and plus speed. He also displayed solid
power, not in a home run sense, but he had 15 extra-base hits in 179 at-bats,
which is enough power to be productive.
Trout is still a long way from the majors, which may be the only knock
on him, and if he continues to impress, he could move quickly through the
Angels’ system.
3 – Jiovanni Mier (HOU) – SS – Low-A
Surprised to see an Astro on a prospect list? You should be. Mier is the face of the new Astros farm
system, which is being rebuilt after being considered universally the worst in
baseball over the past year. Mier is a
line-drive hitter who hit more homeruns in his debut season than expected (7 in
192 at-bats), but is not expected to be a major power threat. His 20 extra-base hits during that span,
however, are a good indication that he will not be an on-base only type player
who offers nothing else offensively.
Mier also managed 30 walks and stole 10 bases, showing that his high
school bat, much like Trout’s, was too advanced for Rookie-ball. Mier will have to learn to steal bases with
more success (he was thrown out 5 times), and could cut his strikeouts down a
bit, but with slightly more power than Trout, Mier gets the slight nod over his
fellow 2009 draft-mate on this list as having the potential to have more
offensive impact from the leadoff spot when it comes to getting himself in
scoring position with his bat.
2 – Dustin Ackley (SEA) - 2B - Double-A
Ackley’s hitting reputation preceded him into professional
baseball, and this ranking, along with most others, are based purely on what
scouts have said is one of the most professional swings and pure hitting
ability to come along in the draft since the likes of Joe Mauer. Ackley is off to a cold start in his first
professional season (7 for his first 49), but his production so far is
irrelevant. Ackley is not blazing fast,
but has plus speed and knows how to use it.
He has displayed enough power to be an effective major league hitter,
but not too much to move down in the lineup.
What separates Ackley from other prospects, according to scouts, are his
combination of all the things that make a good hitter – pitch recognition and
the ability to make consistent contact – categories in which Ackley rates off
the charts. If he can consistently hit
.300 and have a good eye at the plate (which scouts would say is the
bottom-level of his potential), he’ll be the leadoff hitter for the Mariners as
soon as Ichiro and Chone Figgins are ready to make room for him.
1 – Desmond Jennings (TB) - CF - Triple-A
Jennings is the next version of the new generation prototype
leadoff hitter who is equal parts athlete and baseball player. He’s a similar type player to the Pirates’
Andrew McCutchen, but a few inches bigger and with slightly less power, more
speed, and a better eye at the plate. He
may top out at 20 homeruns (and likely hit 10-15 per season), but his power is
evident in his accumulation of doubles and triples. Even more important to the leadoff role,
Jennings has 151 career walks in the minors to 178 career strikeouts. His ability to make contact at the plate
without compromising the strike zone, then steal second once he’s there may
lessen the blow to Rays’ fans if Carl Crawford departs after (or during) the
season. Jennings has not only stolen 137
bases in 314 games, but he’s done so at an 82.5% rate of success. The only knock on Jennings is his ability to
stay healthy, as he has missed some period of time in each of his professional
seasons, including the first two weeks of 2010.
Assuming his health is in tact, however, Jennings is merely biding his
time in Durham until there is an opening in Tampa, either via trade or as a
mid-season call-up to support a playoff run.
