MLB Prospect Watch: Kellen Kulbacki

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May 14, 2009

November 17, 2008

If the main question surrounding Kulbacki coming out of James Madison University in 2007 was whether his offensive prowess would translate with a wood bat in his hand, then the answer thus far has been a resounding yes. Kulbacki dominated the college game, but struggled in his only public wood bat demonstration with a poor summer in the Cape Cod League after his remarkable sophomore year. The Padres took him anyway after a solid Junior year, and Kulbacki is making it seem as though the summer at the Cape was an aberration. The only problem with Kulbacki in 2008 was keeping him on the field. He battled sore hamstrings in Spring Training, missed three weeks in August with a sore shoulder, and ended his season by taring his labrum making a diving catch in a playoff game. In between, however, he was even better than advertised, putting up a line of .332/..428/.589, demonstrating a solid eye at the plate, and striking out only 52 times in 304 at-bats, not a terrible number for a player with his kind of power. Kulbacki should be recovered from his torn labrum in time for Spring Training, and assuming he is, look for him to play a full season in Double-A San Antonio, with perhaps a late-season call-up in the works.

Adkins came out of the University of Tennessee with two polished off-speed pitches to make up for an average fastball, and in 2007, he showed why that can be an effective reciepe at the lower levels of the minor leagues, making 11 starts in the Midwest League, and posting a 2.42 ERA, striking out 30 in 26 IP. His formula, however, did not work quite as well in 2008 in more advanced levels. He proved to be quite hittable in the hitter-friendly California League (106 hits in 87 2/3 IP) and his off-speed curveball/slider combination didn't fool the more advanced hitters of the Southern League, where he posted a 4.74 ERA, and seemingly lost his command, walking an uncharacteristic 28 batters in 38 IP, nearly double his previous walk rate, which at 3.8/9 IP was too high for someone with his repoitore to get away with in the first place. Adkins will have to show he can command his pitches better and drastically reduce his walk rate, because with his stuff, he will always give up his hits. He only made 8 starts at Double-A, so look for him to return to Jacksonville and give it another shot in 2009.

Cecil is another college reliever the Blue Jays are turning into a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, but in this case, the returns thus far have been good. Cecil has run into little opposition in the minors, posting an ERA below 2.55 in each of his first 3 stops, hitting only a slight speed bump in 6 Triple-A starts, where he posted a 4.11 ERA, but still struck out over a batter per inning. Cecil's needs now are to continue to increase his stamina and to develop a third pitch to go with his plus fastball/slider combo. If he can not do so, he can easily slide back into the bullpen and be a dominant reliever. If he can, then he will fit nicely into the middle of the Jays rotation. As for 2009, look for Cecil to get a look in Spring Training, but likely he will head to Triple-A, work on his stamina, and make an appearance in the majors sometime later in the year.

Most prep catchers drafted are taken for their bat, with the hopes that their defense will be able to stick, or perhaps that they can be taught well enough to remain behind the plate. With Travis d'Arnaud, the Phillies have exactly the opposite. The Phillies liked d'Arnaud's bat, but they made him the 37th overall pick mostly because of his polished defensive skills behind the plate. While he has thrown out only 19 % of base stealers, the Phillies remain high on his defensive skills. What they might not have expected is his bat to play as well as it has. While d'Arnaud hasn't exactly knocked the cover off the ball, he has shown a consistant bat, sporting a .282/.335/.421 line through 105 minor league games at 3 different levels. He needs to improve his plate discipline (although he demonstrated an average eye at his longest stop in the New York-Penn League), but if he can continue to progress along this path, he will certainly hit well enough to get his plus defensive abilities into play. Look for d'Arnaud to be the full time catcher for Lakewood in the Sally League in 2009.

Mortensen was seen as a bit of a reach when the Cardinals took him with the 36th overall pick in 2007, but for the remainder of that year, he made the Cardinals look brilliant, posting a combined 2.67 ERA in 60 2/3 IP between the New York-Penn and Midwest Leagues, striking out 68 batters during that time. Unfortunately, in 2008, it appears that his early dominance can be chalked up to simply being further deveolped than his Short-Season and Low-A Ball competitors. The Cardinals have to be worried about this alarming trend - Mortensen's ERA by level: SS (1.77); Low-A (3.12); Double-A (4.22); Triple-A (5.51). Also worrysome is his K/9 ratio by level: SS (10.1); Low-A (10.1); Double-A (7.2); Triple-A (6.4). Those are bad trends. Mortensen could start back in either Double or Triple-A for St. Louis in 2009.

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