MLB Prospect Watch

Prospects in a Potential Justin Upton to the Braves Deal

Nothing is happening yet, just like it hasn't happened all winter, but the constant rumor mill that has been swirling around Justin Upton and the Arizona Diamondbacks this entire off-season has picked up steam of late with reports of some serious talks happening with the Atlanta Braves.

We don't know which prospects will be involved, but we know which ones have been mentioned (at least by credible sources, not commenters on Braves websites).

From most reports, the prospect that his deal centers around is top pitching prospect Julio Teheran.  This makes sense, given that he's the best the Braves have to offer, and the closest thing the Braves have to Taijuan Walker, the centerpiece of the deal with the Mariners that Upton rejected.  

But Teheran is not Walker, although he is closer to being major league ready.  Teheran's change-up is better than any off-speed pitch Walker has to offer, but the lack of development in his breaking ball leaves reason for concern.

Ken Rosenthal tweeted Wednesday night that the Diamondbacks are also interested in C/OF Evan Gattis and SS Nick Ahmed.  Both are nice players, but a package of those three would signify a major step down from the package the Mariners offered.

Gattis is coming on strong in the prospect world now that he's gotten his act together and is focused on baseball, but he'll be 27 next season and spent just a partial season at Double-A.  Gattis has tremendous power and tore it up in winter ball this off-season, but if the Diamondbacks want him to get to the majors anytime soon, and give their age they should, then it will be as an outfielder.  

Getting rid of outfielders, not acquiring them, was the whole point of this trade in the first place.

As for Ahmed, well, it seems the Diamondbacks made a rule this winter that every trade they make has to include a shortstop.  The problem is whether or not Ahmed can stick there defensively.  He makes the plays, but nothing looks smooth.  There are also some serious questions about whether or not he has an every day bat.  It seems like a utility role is his most likely destination.

Considering the offer the Mariners and Diamondbacks had in place - Walker, 2B Nick Franklin, LHP Charlie Furbush and RHP Stephen Pryor - a trade for just those three prospects would signify a significant change in the opinion in Upton's value from just two weeks ago.  More likely, however, is that there are others involved.

Multiple reports confirm that the Braves will not move starting shortstop Andrelton Simmons in a deal to get Upton, and I'm sure that's been the hang-up for the D-Backs all along.

Even with their trading off of Trevor Bauer earlier this winter, he Diamondbacks have as much pitching depth as any organization in baseball, but that hasn't stopped them from inquiring on Teheran in this deal, so it probably wouldn't stop them from asking about J.R. Graham in the deal as well.  For the Braves, however, trading their two top pitching prospects may be too high of a price.

Catching prospect Christian Bethancourt could be intriguing, even with the presence of Miguel Montero, because there's no guarantee that Bethancourt will ever hit enough to be a regular.  His defense is strong enough, however, that he'll absolutely have a career in the majors, and his bat could be a nice lottery ticket for the Diamondbacks.  With the questions about Brian McCann's long-term health, however, the Braves may not want to move Bethancourt either, especially if they move Gattis or see him as an OF long-term.

The main problem with the Braves and Diamondbacks matching up on a deal of this magnitude is that the Diamondbacks don't need pitching (one of the few teams that can say that), even in their minor league system, and the Braves don't have much in the way of impact position players.  Without their willingness to include Simmons, the Braves won't be able to offer the same type of package the Diamondbacks had lined up with the Mariners.

If the Diamondbacks are willing to add value in the form of more pitching, a strategy that few have regretted, then a deal could be reached, but if not, then the Diamondbacks will have to come down significantly from their previous deal in order to move Upton to Atlanta.

 

Winter League Recap: 11/28/12

Dominican Winter League

• Cardinals outfield prospect Oscar Taveras, who had been struggling of late with just two hits in his previous five games, went 3-for-5 with a double on Wednesday, getting his winter batting average back up to .309.
• After an incredibly hot start to the winter, Marcell Ozuna has come crashing down to earth lately, collecting just three hits for his previous 32 at-bats entering Wednesday, when he went 2-for-4 with a double.  The Marlins outfielder has 18 extra-base hits this winter but is not hitting just .230.
• Atlanta Braves pitching prospect Julio Teheran took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, ultimately allowing just one hit in 5 2/3 innings of work while striking out four.

Puerto Rican Winter League

• Anthony Ranaudo got hit around, allowing two runs in two-thirds of an inning before exiting his game early on Wednesday.  His troubles may have been furthered by a groin injury, which Peter Gammons tweets has been a recurring problem for the Red Sox pitching prospect this winter.  Ranaudo's ERA is now up to 6.05 for the winter.
• Yasiel Puig continues his enigmatic winter, as the Dodgers outfielder went 2-for-4 on Wednesday with a pair of strikeouts.  He's now hitting .250 for the winter and has four hits in his past two games, but also five strikeouts over that span, and 11 in 28 at-bats this winter.

Venezuelan Winter League

• Gorkys Hernandez continued his red-hot winter season with three more hits, and is now hitting .323 on the winter.
• Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia went 3-for-4 with a triple to get his VWL batting average back up to .248.

 

Prospect Action - 8/30/12

Triple-A

• Both of the Braves top pitching prospects, Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado, took losses on Thursday despite both pitching well.  Teheran allowed two runs over 6 1/3 innings while striking out six.  Delgado allowed just one run in seven innings while striking out five.
• Jeurys Familia turned in a solid outing as the Mets right-hander struck out nine over seven innings to earn his ninth win of the season.
• White Sox prospect Charlie Leesman took his 10th loss of the season despite striking out 11 batters in seven innings.

Double-A

• Mike Zunino drove in three runs to help lead his fellow Mariners prospects to a 7-3 victory on Thursday, says The Jacksonville Times-Union.  Shortstop prospect Brad Miller scored three of those runs after collecting three hits inthe victory, while Marlins outfield prospect Kyle Jensen knocked two doubles in the loss.  James Paxton threw six strong innings to earn his 9th win of the season.
• Drake Britton gave up three runs in six innings but took a loss in the last start of the season for the Red Sox prospect, reports Kevin Thomas of The Portland Press Herald.

High-A

• Kevin Guasman threw three shutout innings, as the Orioles 2012 first-rounder allowed just one hit in what will likely be his last start of the season, notes Tucker Blair of Orioles-Nation.com.
• Tyler Austin hit a grand slam to cap a comeback victory for the Tampa Yankees on Thursday, notes David Yates of The Lakeland Ledger.
• Jose Fernandez was stellar once again, throwing five shutout innings for his seventh win since being promtoed to the Florida State League, although he did walk four batters in the game.

Low-A

• Rangers pitching prospect Will Lamb earned a victory after throwing five innings of two-hit ball, thanks to run support from a Zach Cone home run, notes The Hickory Daily Record.
• Archie Bradley finished up his first full season on a strong note, earned his 12th win after striking out seven over six innings.  The Diamondbacks 2011 first-rounder finishes up the season with a 3.84 ERA.

Rookie

• Bubba Starling hit a two-run home run to keep his season alive, reports Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.  The Royals outfield prospect hit .275/.371/.485 during the regular season this year, with 10 home runs, but 70 strikeouts in 53 games.

 

 

 

Prospect Action - 8/14/12

Triple-A

• The dominant version of Jeurys Familia showed up on Tuesday night, as the Mets right-hander struck out nine over seven scoreless innings, reports Zack Cox of MiLB.com.  For Familia, it was the first start in five outings in which he hadn't given up at least four runs.
• Jake Odorizzi took another step towards a September call-up by throwing seven scoreless innings, says Cox.  Odorizzi hasn't given up more than three runs in an outing since the middle of July, spanning six straight starts, but the Royals will likely hold of on calling him up to the majors until after the end of the Pacific Coast League playoffs, which Omaha has a good chance of making.
• In his first start since July 28th, Danny Hultzen threw 3 2/3 shutout innings, says Mike Curto of The [Tacoma] News-Tribune.  Hultzen was not injured, but rather the Mariners are closely monitoring his innings towards the end of his first full professional season.
• Julio Teheran turned in a much-needed good start, looking like the dominant version of himself that earned him billing as the top prospect in the Braves farm system before the season.  The right-hander threw eight scoreless innings on Tuesday, striking out nine without walking a batter, according to Paul Eldert of The Virginian-Pilot.  

Double-A

• In his Double-A debut, Brandon Workman threw six strong innings, allowing just a a pair of singles, writes Kevin Thomas of The Portland Press Herald.  The Red Sox right-hander was 7-7 with a 3.40 ERA in 20 starts at High-A Salem before the promotion, with a miniscule 1.6 BB/9 rate.
• Also making his Double-A debut was Orioles top prospect Dylan Bundy, who gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings while walking three, says David Driver of MiLB.com.  Bundy began the year in Low-A ball, where he didn't give up a run in 30 innings, which he followed up with 54 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA in High-A before his most recent promotion.
• Adam Morgan turned in another strong start, as the Phillies prospect threw six innings, allowing just two runs, says Mike Ashmore of ThunderBaseball.com.  It was the second start at Double-A for Morgan, who is now 2-0 at the new level after going just 4-10 at Clearwater, despite his 3.29 ERA there.
• Dodgers right-hander Matt Magill struck out 11 batters in seven shutout innings, allowing just two hits, reports Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com.

High-A

• Matt Barnes took a no-decisions despite throwing five scoreless innings, says Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.  The 2011 first-rounder hasn't been nearly as dominant in High-A as he was in the South Atlantic League, where he posted a 0.34 ERA in five starts, but he has pitched well, lowering his ERA to 3.40 in 17 starts, with 9.3 K/9 and just 2.4 BB/9.
• Kyle Parker hit two more home runs, giving the Rockies prospect 17 on the season.  Parker has taken full advantage of the California League this season, hitting .317/.419/.550 on the year, and has even limited his strikeouts.
• Domingo Santana went 3-for-3 as the Astros outfielder continues his emergence as a more all-around hitter.  Santana is hitting .291 this season, but more importantly, he has improved his patience at the plate, having already recorded 45 walks on the season.  The more selective approach is helping improve his average by keeping him from expanding the strike zone.
• Joc Pederson blasted a pair of home runs, giving the Dodgers center field prospect 15 on the season.

Low-A

• Kellin Deglan continued his recent hot hitting streak with a home run on Tuesday, reports The Hickory Daily Record.  The Rangers catching prospect has struggled at the plate this season, but is hitting .400 over his last ten games with four home runs.
• Mike Foltynewicz advanced to 14-3 on the season, throwing seven more scoreless innings and lowering his ERA to 2.78.  It's been a bounce back season for Foltynewicz, who needed a second season to get acclimated to the South Atlantic League, but has re-established himself as a true prospect this season.
• Clayton Blackburn earned his seventh win of the season, as the Giants prospect struck out nine over seven innings, allowing just two runs.

Rookie

• Bubba Starling hit his ninth home run while fellow Royals prospects Cameron Gallagher and Patrick Leonard each collected multi-hit games at Burlington.
• Over in the Pioneer League, Sem Selman struck out 11 over six innings of work, marking the second straight start with 11 strike outs and third time in five starts he's been in double digits.

 

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Prospect Action - 7/29/12

Triple-A

• Tyler Skaggs struck out 10 batters over seven innings of work, allowing just one run on six hits, according to Andrew Pentis of MiLB.com.  The Diamondbacks lefty now has a 2.08 ERA in six starts in Triple-A after beginning the year with a stong half-season in Double-A Moblie.
• Julio Teheran allowed just one run over five innings of work, but the Braves top pitching prospect did walk five batters during the outing, notes The Charlotte Observer.
• Rob Brantly hit a pinch-hit walk-off three-run blast for his first home run since joining the Marlins organization, writes Albert Burford of The New Orleans Times-Picayune.
• Pirates left-hander Justin Wilson took the loss on Sunday after walking five batters, according to Nancy Zinni of PiratesProspects.com.  Wilson did fan seven in the outing, however.

Double-A

• In his first game back from the DL, White Sox pitcher Andre Rienzo threw seven scoreless innings, says Doug Segrest of The Birmingham News.
• Avisail Garcia drove in the go-ahead run with an eighth inning single to lead his fellow Tigers prospects back from a 5-0 deficit, reports Tom Reisenweber of The Erie-Times News.
• Manny Machado went 2-for-3 with a double and a home run as the Orioles top position prospect broke out of a 4-for-31 slump.
• After a demotion to Double-A, Mike Montgomery's struggles have continued, but on Sunday he put forth his best outing since the Royals dropped him down a level, going seven innings and allowing just two runs.

High-A

• Adam Morgan took his ninth loss of the season, despite being perfect for the first 7 1/3 innings of the game, writes Sam Dykstra of MiLB.com.  The Phillies left-hander has pitched well all season in spite of his record, posting a 3.05 ERA to this point in the season, with 133 strikeouts to just 27 walks in 118 innings of work.
• Trayce Thompson collected three more hits on Sunday, says the Winston-Salem Journal,  and is now hitting .351 over his last 10 games.  More importantly, Thompson has struck out just eight times during that stretch (as compared to his 133 strikeouts in 104 games on the season) and has not struck out more than once in a game since July 22nd.
• The struggles have continued for Jed Bradley, as the Brewers 2011 first-rounder dropped to 5-9 on the season after giving up six runs on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings.
• Robbie Ray put his struggles this season aside for one night, as the Nationals prospect earned his fourth win of the season, giving up three runs s 6 1/3 innings while striking out six.

Low-A

• Tyler Anderson, the Rockies 2011 first round pick, threw his first career shutout on Sunday in a seven-inning game, says John Parker of MiLB.com.  Anderson struck out just three in the outing, but did not walk a batter.
• Drew Vettleson's first inning two-run homer proved to be the difference for the Rays affiliate in Bowling Green, notes MLive.com.

Short-Season

• Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo put together his first four-hit day, coming up just a triple short of the cycle, reports Jonathan Raymond of MiLB.com.  The big day brought Nimmo's batting average up to .240, though his patience at the plate has his on-base percentage at a respectable .368.  Also in the game, Indians 2012 first-rounder Tyler Naquin hit two doubles, giving him 10 in 30 games.
• Mike Zunino, the third overall pick in this year's draft by the Seattle Mariners, hit his sixth home run of the season in just his 16th game played.  Don't be surprised to see him moved to a full-season league for the last month of the season, assuming he doesn't wear down from the long season.

 

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