MLB Prospect Watch

Pacific Coast League Preview

Albuquerque (LAD)

Yasiel Puig is the big name but keep an eye on Chris Withrow as a potential bullpen arm who could be in the majors by the end of the season.  Watch Puig's plate discipline (not just walks, but his BB/K ratio) to see how ready he is for the majors.

Colorado Springs (COL)

Just like in the majors, it's all about offense in the Rockies Triple-A affiliate, with Nolan Arenado pushing Ryan Wheeler over to first base.  Arenado was beat out in spring training by Chris Nelson, but if he returns to his 2011 form, he should force his way to the majors by mid-season, no matter what Nelson is doing.

Memphis (SF)

Gary Brown could be up for a big offensive season, much like he had in the offensively similar California League in 2011.  The center fielder struggled last season as Richmond and has one last chance to prove that he's an everyday player and not a fourth outfielder.  Left-hander Mike Kickham leads the pitching staff after a strong season in Richmond in 2012.  He skipped the Cal League on his way through the Giants system, so this will be his first test in an extreme hittter's environment.

Iowa (CHC)

Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters are the names everyone knows and this is their final chance in the minors to prove they should be a part of the Cubs rebuilding process.  Both should be in the majors at some point this season, but both need to give the Cubs some reason to believe they can be regular players at the next level.

Las Vegas (NYM)

The new Mets affiliate are headlined by pitching phenom Zack Wheeler, who won't be in the desert for too long.  He should be in the majors by June.  The 51's also feature Travis d'Arnaud and Wilmer Flores, giving them the best collection of top prospects in the PCL.

Memphis (STL)

Oscar Taveras will be the best player in the PCL and will only be there as long as the Cardinals still have him blocked in the majors.  2012 first-rounder Michael Wacha could be close behind him, and should be the PCL's best pitcher once Wheeler joins the Mets.

Huntsville (MIL)

The Brewers system isn't deep, but Johnny Hellweg, who came over in last summer's Zack Greinke trade, is a flame thrower and almost made the Brewers bullpen out of spring training.  He'll work as a starter in the minors.

New Orleans (MIA)

The Zephyrs thought they were getting Jose Fernandez at some point this season, but instead will have to settle for Jacob Turner and Kyle Skipworth, which is not a close consolation prize.  Christian Yelich will join them eventually, but not yet.

Oklahoma City (HOU)

Jarred Cosart, Rudy Owens and Paul Clemens highlight a rotation of prospects the Astros have acquired over the past two seasons, while the lineup is led by Robbie Grossman, Marc Krauss and Jonathan Villar.  None of these players were drafted by the Astros, a testament to their rebuilding process, but none are high-end prospects.

Omaha (KC)

Once a Triple-A team that could almost rival the worst big league teams, Omaha now features midling prospects like Christian Colon and Chris Dwyer.

Reno (ARI)

Tyler Skaggs didn't make the Diamondbacks roster this spring, which is a gain for the Aces rotation that will also feature Randall Delgado, Charles Brewer and Chase Anderson.

Round Rock (TEX)

The headliner is Jurickson Profar, but he'll be flanked by Mike Olt in the lineup and Justin Grimm on the mound.  Profar could also be spending the majority of his time at second base now that the Rangers have locked Elvis Andrus up long term.

Sacramento (OAK)

Sonny Gray and Grant Green give the RIver Cats a pair of first rounders still trying to gain some traction within the A's organization.  Either could move quick if they have success or they could spend the whole season in the PCL.

Salt Lake (LAA)

The least prospect-laden team in the PCL offers Kole Calhoun in the outfield, but even he could be in the majors soon.

Tacoma (SEA)

There are prospects galore on the Rainers roster, including Danny Hultzen and Erasmo Ramirez in the rotation and Nick Franklin in the middle infield.  Taijuan Walker and Mike Zunino should both be there at some point as well.

Tucson (SD)

Jaff Decker continues to try to defy expectations, but needs to bounce back from an injury-riddled 2012 season.  Brad Boxberger will stay sharp in the bullpen until he's needed in the majors.

 

 

Jose Fernandez Sent Down, When Will He Be Back?

The Miami Marlins re-assigned top pitching prospect Jose Fernandez to minor league camp on Wednesday, reports Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post. The move means the Marlins avoided the temptation of leaving Fernandez in the majors to begin the season despite the fact that he may already be one of their five best starting pitchers.

The question now for the Marlins is when they should call Fernandez up to the majors.

Andrew Townes of FishStripes.com has thoughts on the matter, hoping that the Marlins wait until 2014 before debuting Fernandez.  I agree, although I find it hard to believe that the organization will wait that long if Fernandez continues to dominate the minor leagues the way has to this point.

I broke down the time table for Fernandez at the end of last season, arguing that calling Fernandez up to try and fill some seats in the ballpark would be a terrible mismanagement of one of their most valuable assets, and that they should only call Fernandez up if they are in contention and he's one of their five best starters.  Of course, after their off-season, it's a stretch to envision that scenario happening.

Which means that we shouldn't see Fernandez in 2013.  I believe we will, but we shouldn't.

As I said in my previous article, "barring injury, there is no way Fernandez will be more effective from the ages of 20-26 than he will be from 22-28."  The Marlins, if their history tells us anything, will get a maximum of six years out of Fernandez.  How much better off will they be if two of those six years are his age 27 and 28-year-old seasons instead of his age 20 and 21-year-old seasons?

Fernandez is the centerpiece of their rebuilding process, and it's important that the Marlins line up the primes of him, Christian Yelich, Jake Marisnick, and others along with whatever they have left of Giancarlo Stanton, if he's still around.  No matter how dominant Fernandez is in the minors this season, he will do the Marlins zero good in the majors.

They will be best served leaving him in the minors and letting him refine his abilities until they are ready for him at the majors.  But as with so many of the Marlins decisions, will they make the one that actually serves them best?

Bad Decision Candidate: Jose Fernandez

Every spring, young prospects make it to their first major league spring training and impress a coaching staff who, to that point, has heard about what they can do but hasn't yet seen it person.  The coaching staff becomes so enamored with this young player that, against their better judgement, they begin to make pleads with the front office to keep this player around.  

Sometimes, like the Mets did in 2010 with Jenrry Mejia, the front office listens and allows the pleas of their manager to dictate their organizational plan.  Other times, like last season in Washington when Davey Johnson came right out and said that he wanted Bryce Harper to begin the season in the majors, general managers do their job and keep emotional managers from making their decisions for them.

You can expect to hear stories about top pitching prospect Jose Fernandez coming out of Marlins camp over the next few week that fall onto one side or the other of this equation.

That's the thing about young arms, they just throw harder than old ones.  Young pitchers are always prime candidates for this trap.  They report to camp first when there isn't a whole lot else to talk about, so there are plenty of quotes about how good some young arm looked.  It's easy to look great throwing bullpens to catchers and there's always some quote from a veteran catcher or pitching coach about how he's never seen a ball do the things that [insert young pitcher's name]'s ball is doing.

It's as much of a spring tradition for pitchers as PFP's and afternoon tee times.

Fernandez enters Marlins camp with the kind of arm that has the ability to generate exactly this kind of excitement, and he's entering a camp that is desperately in need of a positive story.  It's a perfect storm.

Fernandez was perhaps the most dominant young pitcher in the minors last season.  In 25 starts between Low and High-A, Fernandez went 14-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 10.6 K/9.  He treated both the South Atlantic and Florida State Leagues like it was his own personal warm up for things to come, and appeared to barely break a sweat doing it.

I scouted Fernandez in person last May and he was as impressive as any pitcher I saw all season.  The video from that start is below.  It was unfortunately my only time seeing him all season, as he apparently got even stronger as the year went on.

But despite his tremendous success and polish for a 20-year-old pitcher, the Marlins would be short-sighted and foolish to keep him in the majors at the start of the spring.

As I wrote up in my report, Fernandez showed a good change-up in the bullpen but rarely had to use it in the game.  He was simply too dominant with his other pitches.  Fernandez worked hard on his change-up this off-season, says Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post, and appears to be confidant in it, knowing he'll need it in the upper minors this season.  That change-up will be the difference between Fernandez being a mid-rotation starter and fulfilling his destiny as a true ace for the Marlins.

Regardless of how good his change-up looks in the bullpen, or against spring training hitters who don't have a good scouting report on Fernandez, time needs to be spent in the upper-minors to work on developing it fully.  It shouldn't take Fernandez long, but there's no reason not to send him to the minors to perfect the pitch before unleashing him on the rest of the National League.

The Marlins may be tempted to keep Fernandez around as a way to inject excitement into a team that has alienated its fan base this off-season.  The Marlins have promised their fans a vision of the future, and that future centers around the development of Fernandez.  It is tempting for management to want to give their fans a glimpse of that future as soon as possible, but it would be a much better baseball decision to give Fernandez the best chance of reaching his potential and giving the fans meaningful baseball to watch.

Fernandez could probably hold his own in the majors this April, and could certainly do better than most 20-year-olds would.  But what's the incentive for the Marlins, other than at the ticket window, to use up a year of team-control of their best pitching prospect on a season that is destined for a last-place finish?  The Marlins may only have so many seasons with Fernandez, and only a few of them will be cheap.  Who knows if they'll be in position to sign him long-term once he becomes the star they believe he will become.  If for no other reason than for the selfish financial ones that drive this organization in the first place, they need to keep Fernandez in the minors until at least June to ensure he will be as affordable as possible for as long as possible.

At this point, the Marlins have said that their plan is to send Fernandez to Double-A, so at least to this point, they're planning to do the right thing.  Those things have a tendency to change during spring training, but hopefully for the future of the Marlins franchise, they don't give into the excitement that is sure to come from Fernandez's bullpen sessions and spring appearances and they allow him to finish his development in the minors.

A little patience will go a long way, and in the case of Fernandez, they won't have to be patient for long.

5 Prospects Least Likely to be Traded

As we've seen this off-season, almost any prospect can be traded for the right price.  Teams have been asking the Royals about Wil Myers for years, but it took the desperation of another year of terrible pitching to make them finally part with their top prospect in order to add James Shields to their rotation.

No prospect is immune to being traded.  The Angels never gave in to the temptations or trade offers for Mike Trout, but given that both teams had holes to fill and a surplus of major league outfielders, it's certainly something they considered.

Jurickson Profar is the best prospect in the game, but the Rangers are desperate to replace some of the production they've lost to free agency over the past few years, and they already have a starting shortstop.  He probably won't be traded, but every team wants him and he's blocked at his position in the majors, so there's at least a slight chance.

But these five prospects are almost certainly not going anywhere.  It's baseball so there's always a chance, but their organizations appear to be dedicated to holding on to these players and enjoying their success in the majors.

 

5 - Gerrit Cole

There's a couple things working in the favor of Cole staying with the Pirates.  For one, the Pirates current regime has traditionally been slower than some to act, meaning they won't make a rash decision with Cole.  By the time they got around to trading him, he'll be in the majors.  His proximity to the majors is another reason why he'll remain a Pirate.  Sure, Myers was closer to the majors than is Cole right now, but the Pirates made an $8 million investment in Cole when they drafted him, and unless he makes it to the majors, the Pirates won't feel like the recouped anything from their investment.  

Lastly, even though the Pirates could use a veteran player and have the prospects to deal, they are in the enviable position of being able to trade a potential ace pitching prospect (Jameson Taillon) without moving Cole.  Even if the Pirates ponied up the prospects to trade for, say, Giancarlo Stanton, they could get a deal done without Cole, which is a testament to the depth of their farm system.

4 - Zack Wheeler

Sometimes this is just simple observation.  The Mets themselves traded for Wheeler, so they're unlikely to move him.  They're rebuilding themselves, and the best way to do that is around young, cost-controlled pitching.  And Wheeler should be ready for the majors by the second half of 2013.  Few prospects are more valuable to their organizations right now than Wheeler is to the Mets.

3 - Jonathan Singleton

Not long ago, the Astros farm system was not just bad, but historically bad.  Completely void of any impact talent, the Astros have cleaned out their major league roster of virtually every asset with any value, and in return, have re-stocked their farm system with legitimate talent.  Leading the way in that rebuilding process is Jonathan Singleton, the best first base prospect in all of baseball and center piece of the Astros next competitive team.  He's a legitimate 3-hole hitter and slugging first baseman, and those aren't easy to find.  With the Astros move to the American League, they have also rebranded, changed logos and colors, and are re-booting their entire franchise, and Singleton will be the first franchise player of the Houston Astros 2.0.  

2 - Jose Fernandez

Let's see here.  We have a rebuilding team that's collecting all of the young, cheap assets it can find that also likes players of Cuban decent to relate to their heavily-Cuban fan base.  We also have a potential ace in the making, one of the top five pitching prospects in all of baseball who escaped from Cuba as a teenager and could be in the majors by 2014.  The Marlins connection to Jose Fernandez goes beyond just baseball, and they're an organization that clearly factors those additional factors more than many others.

1 - Dylan Bundy

Bundy went from high school draft pick to pitching in the majors in less than a year-and-a-half.  As the Orioles attempt to add pieces to their suddenly competitive major league roster, teams are sure to be asking about Bundy at the start of every conversation.  But to their credit, the Orioles have resisted the temptation of trading their top prospect for a quick fix.  If they are going to sustain their recent success, the Orioles are going to need Bundy at the center of things, and not on the trade market.  They got by last season with a smoke and mirrors pitching staff, and while their offense still has some potency, if they compete again in 2013, it's because Bundy is in the running for the Rookie of the Year.  He could make their rotation this spring, and if not, he'll be up by early summer, and the Orioles will never look back.

 

The Timetable of Jose Fernandez

The possibility was discussed this week about the chances of top pitching prospect Jose Fernandez making it into the Miami Marlins rotation at some point next season.  The initial article was written by Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post, who suggests that if Fernandez dominates Double-A hitters (his likely 2013 starting spot) the way he did Low and High-A hitters this season, that he could be in the majors as early as May or June.  Michael Jong of FishStripes.com considers this possibility and looks at what it would take from Fernandez ot make this happen.  Jong, in another article, then looks at how the Marlins have handled the promotion of their best pitching prospects through the years.

I saw Jose Fernandez pitch this season, and it was one of the most impressive things I saw all year.  Pitching in Low-A against Lakewood when I saw him, he literally looked like a grown man amongst boys.  Had I not known better, and if not for his youthful baby-face, I would have thought he was a major leaguer on a rehab assignment.  Below is video footage of that outing:

 

As impressive as he was all season, however, I still think that May or June is a bit of a stretch for a major league arrival, and not necessarily because of anything Fernandez does or doesn't do on the field.

Fernandez is great - one of the best pitchers in the minors, but that doesn't mean the move makes sense.  But there are three factors that teams have to consider before calling up a top prospect:  (1) what are the risks of him struggling (2) is he ready to be close to his best, and (3) is the team ready to compete?

Prospects are called up during two different times in the life of an organization - either as a reinforcement for a competing team (Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this season) or as part of a rebuilding process (pick a Royals call-up in the past two years).  The closer an organization is to the rebuilding end of that spectrum, the closer the prospect in question needs to be to the finished version of himself.

The Royals, for example, could have called up Wil Myers at some point this season, and he likely would have been fine.  He would have held his own and probably have been around a league-average hitter his first time through the league.  But what's the point?  Out of contention at the all-star break, where was the benefit for the Royals in calling up Myers in July and starting his service clock?  With each prospect, there's only six years of guaranteed service time.  Why use up any more of that than is necessary with less than his best performance?

The Nationals had a good reason to do just that with Bryce Harper this season.  Harper will finish with around 20 home runs this season, but during his prime, could easily be a 40-homer hitter.  The Nationals used almost a one-sixth of Harper's guaranteed time with the organization by playing him at the age of 19 when he has half the power he might have down the road.  But for the Nationals, a contending team, their hand was forced due to injury.  They did the right thing by starting him in the minors at the beginning of the season, but with injuries to two outfielders (Michael Morse and Jayson Werth) early in the year4, the Nats were forced to call Harper up before he was at his best.

And it was the right move, because they were competing.

The Marlins will probably not be competing next June.  If they are, and feel like they are one solid starting pitcher away from making a real run at things, then by all means, take a look at how Fernandez is progressing in Double-A.  But if they're already 10 games out of first place by Memorial Day, whats the point?

I don't care if Fernandez is going Dylan Bundy on Double-A next season.  He's still just 20, and will be for the first half 2013.  Barring injury, there is no way Fernandez will be more effective from the ages of 20-26 than he will be from 22-28.

Not that there's any way the Marlins can keep Fernandez in the minors for two more years.  At best, if he continues his progress at the same rate, he's got one more full season on the farm.  But that's a big difference than two months.  It's enough of a difference to buy them another year of team control.

Fernandez will likely be ready to handle major league hitters by next summer, but he has a good chance to do a lot more than just handle them down the road.  Anyone who reads this site knows that I'm an advocate of erring on the side of caution when it comes to promoting prospects, preferring to over-develop rather than under-develop.  In the case of Fernandez, he doesn't need nearly as much developmental time as most prep pitching prospects, but there's still the organizational aspect to consider.

Is Fernandez going to fill the empty seats at Marlins Park next summer?  Perhaps for a few starts (especially with his Cuban heritage and Florida roots), but ultimately, probably not.  Staying relevant in the crowded Miami social scene isn't enough of a reason to call Fernandez up next summer, and just because he's one of the five best options may not be either.  If they're in contention, and Fernandez is one of the Marlins five best starting pitching options, then I don't care if can drive legally.  Call him up.  But if it's already a lost season, don't give into temptation and start his service clock any earlier than is necessary.