I haven't touched much on the Red Sox decision to keep Jackie Bradley, Jr. in the majors this spring, mainly because I really didn't know how I felt about it. In general, I typically take the stance against rushing players to the majors, mainly for developmental reasons, but also for the typical contract and production reasons. I made the argument this spring about bothYasiel Puig and Aaron Hicks.
But every situation is different.
I have less of a problem with the Red Sox to keep Bradley in the majors than I do with the Twins decision to keep Hicks, or I would have with Puig, and certainly less than I do with the Marlins decision to keep Jose Fernandez around (which I've hated for months before they decided to screw it up). Much like with Hicks, Bradley will be able to hold his own in the majors more so than a player like Puig or others, mainly because his abilities are based around speed, defense, and plate discipline - skills that typically transfer well to the majors.
Unlike Hicks and the Twins, however, the Red Sox plan to be competitive this season. The Twins are absolutely wasting a season of Hicks' cheap years on a team that won't be competitive, but the Red Sox probably won't be wasting Bradley. They should at least be somewhat competitive this season, and Bradley should represent a decent upgrade over their other options in left field.
The same argument can be made about Bradley that is made with other prospects - that even if he's ready to hold his head above water in the majors, he won't be nearly as good this season at age 23 as he will be in six years at age 29 if they held him back an additional year. But Bradley is a little older than many of these other prospects for whom we make this argument so there's a better chance he's closer to being the completed version of himself. Additionally, it's different when it's a competitive team. It may be worth the difference between those two seasons if it means getting to the playoffs now or not. In that case, it may be a good decision by the Red Sox.
Bradley is still better off getting some time in Triple-A before heading to the majors, but unlike with some prospects, the possible consequences aren't devastating and the possible reward for the Red Sox is greater by comparison. I still like to see prospects get their full developmental time, but in this case, bring Bradley to the majors this Opening Day isn't a terrible decision.
The Miami Marlins didn't have a whole lot of names they could pencil into their projected Opening Day roster at the beginning of spring training, but they thought that rookie Jacob Turner would be one of them. Now, after a horrendous spring that has seen a 10.80 ERA over three starts, Turner's spot in the Marlins rotation is in jeopardy, notes Michael Jong of FishStripes.com.
Spring training starts aren't usually worth the pixels in which they are displayed, but when a young starter shows the lack of command that Turner has shown this spring, there is reason for concern. I saw Turner once this spring, on March 9th when he threw three scoreless innings against the Cardinals and looked like the pitcher everyone expects him to be, but clearly that has been the exception and not the rule this month.
Regardless of where he beings the season, Turner will be in Miami at some point. He was already rushed to the majors by the Tigers without ever having had a full-season at any minor league level despite being drafted out of high school. He'll be just 22 in May and still has plenty of time to figure things out. If he doesn't look ready this spring, some more time in Triple-A could go a long way towards helping him become a better pitcher in the majors.
The Marlins need Turner this season, but more importantly, they need him to be good for their future. If they have to sacrifice a few starts in a lost 2013 season to help ensure the latter, then they should.
Bradley to Left Field in Fenway?
Red Sox nation is getting excited about Jackie Bradley, and rightly so, but the talks of having him as their Opening Day left fielder appear to be taking it a little far. Or are they?
As Scott Lauber of The Boston Herald reports, Red Sox manager John Farrell won't completely dismiss the idea of keeping Bradley around in April. I'll admit that the idea of an outfield defense that includes Bradley, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino - essentially three center fielders - is quite enticing, but that would be more of a motivation if the Red Sox played their home games at a stadium with a bigger outfield to roam - say Petco Park or Safeco Field - instead of the quaint Fenway Park.
But the biggest issue here is Bradley's development. The former first rounder (40th overall in 2011) had a great 2012 season, splitting it between High-A and Double-A ball and hitting a combined .315/.430/.482. But just 61 of those games came in Double-A and he hit a nice but not jump-to-the-majors-worthy .271/.373/.437 after the promotion.
Bradley is clearly the Red Sox answer in center field for the 2014 season after they (presumably) allow Jacoby Ellsbury to leave via free agency (if he's not traded this season). He's got all the makings of a dynamic leadoff hitter and major league center fielder. But jumping to the American League East after just 271 plate appearances in the upper minors is a tall task.
Mets infield prospect Wilmer Flores finally had the breakout offensive season in 2012 that everyone had been waiting for, posting an .827 OPS between High and Double-A. The problem with Flores is where he will play on defense, and John Sickels breaks it down perfectly, saying:
Flores moved off shortstop last year and performed adequately at both third base and second base. His arm works just fine at third and he doesn't make an excessive number of errors, but his range is mediocre. His bat profiles better at second base, but he probably lacks the requisite quickness to play there long-term. He doesn't run well enough to be an attractive outfield option, but will he hit enough to play first base?
Defense will always be the question for Flores. He should be usable at a few different positions, but likely not good at any of them. The question is if one of them will be second base. If not, he won't do the Mets much good because he probably won't hit enough to be valuable at first base and won't be able to play the outfield. Third base is blocked in New York, leaving second base or a trade as the only viable options for the Mets.
Some prospects remind us of players we've seen before, either because of their actions or the results, but Angels pitching prospect A.J. Schugel is showing off some things that don't necessarily fit the mold, says Halos Heaven, specifically his refinement despite being a converted position player, and his strange righty/lefty splits.
Jackie Bradley gets rave reviews for both his on-field play and off-field demeanor, and it's that combination that could make Jacoby Ellsbury expendable in Boston as he becomes a free agent after the season, notes Brendan McGair of The Pawtucket Times. In his first full season, Bradley established himself as one of the best leadoff prospects in the game, hitting .315/.430/.482 between High and Double-A and walking almost as many times as he struck out. He should return to Double-A to begin this season, but assuming he has as much success as he did last year, he should be up to Triple-A by mid-season and could get a September call-up with the big club.
Everyone who follows prospects has their own rankings. Most lists involve the top-10 prospects within an organization. Others will rank by position. Here's how we do things here.
The following is list of the top-10 potential leadoff hitters in the minor leagues. Players are ranked both on their ability as a prospect but also their potential to become a leadoff hitter at the major league level.
For instance, Wil Myers is one of the best hitting prospects in basbeall, but he won't appear on this list because he doesn't profile as a leadoff hitter. You get the idea.
If his bat reaches it's full potential, Gose would be near the top of this list. I just don't believe in the bat. Gose is going to be an everyday player in the major leagues because of his defense and speed, but his bat will dictate whether he's at the top or bottom of a major league lineup. He's never walked in more than 11% of his at-bats in the minors in a full season and he looked completely lost against lefties in the majors, so his bat still needs some more refinement in the minors. With his speed, Gose has the complete tool-set to be a dynamic leadoff hitter, brings up the rear of this list because I don't believe in the bat every fully coming around.
In certain aspects, Szczur is still an athlete playing baseball, but the former Villanova gridiron star does have an innate ability to get on base and use his speed. He's not going to develop into a power hitter, so he's going to have to hit enough to leadoff or risk being stuck hitting ahead of the pitcher, but his plate discipline is strong enough that if he can manage to bat .275 in the majors, he'll get on base enough to lead off. And if he does, we get to see him run.
Grossman burst onto the scene in 2011 when he walked 104 times in a full Florida State League season. Grossman wasn't quite as statistically impressive in Double-A this season, but still posted a .376 on-base percentage despite not scaring pitchers with much power. He doesn't have any stand-out tools outside of his plate discipline (my self-appointed sixth tool), but he has shown a continued ability to get on-base and interested the Astros enough to trade for him. He projects as a Nick Swisher-type player but with about half the power. On a team with plenty of power in the lineup, he would make a solid leadoff hitter at the top of the order.
There were some questions about how well Hicks, a 2008 first round pick, was developing at the plate entering the 2012 season after he hit just .242 in the Florida State League. The 2012 season was what everyone had been expecting from Hicks, as he hit .286/.384/.460 for Double-A New Britain. Even when he was struggling at the plate he maintained his plate discipline. He's always shown a good eye and has the kind of speed wanted at the top of an order. Hicks actually displayed the kind of power that you'd expect out of his 6'2" frame and if that develops further he'll end up in the middle of the Twins lineup instead of at the top of it.
Deshields still has a lot of work to do to refine his hitting ability, but I'll cut anyone who steals 100 bases in a season some slack. He does know his role as a table-setter and works counts well, clearly trying to get on base so he can steal more bases, which will ultimately benefit him. If he can hit anywhere above .250 in the majors, he should get on-base enough to leadoff, and if he plays every day, he'll undoubtedly steal 50-60 bases a season in the major leagues. That's a good enough leadoff hitter for the Astros, who could have a nice one-two punch of DeShields and Grossman at the top of their lineup by 2014.
O'Neill is by far the least-known prospect on this list, but his ability to get on base without striking out or hitting for any power is perhaps the best in all of the minor leagues, posting a minor league best 2.92 BB/K ratio. He's old, playing most of the 2012 season as a 24-year-old in the Florida State League, but he walked 78 times to just 26 strike outs. Age can't do that. He has absolutely no power, which means he's earned those walks himself. He's a leadoff hitter from a different era, but that doesn't mean he can't leadoff in today's game. With his ridiculous performance in the Arizona Fall League (currently hitting .563), the Cardinals could be aggressive with his assignment in 2013. He's not a better prospect than the guys on this list he's ahead of, but he may end up being a better leadoff hitter.
Goodwin may eventually have too much power for this list, but in the meantime he's got all the tools to be a solid leadoff man for the Nationals. He hit 14 home runs in his first professional season, but it remains to be seen how much of that was Goodwin taking advantage of inferior pitching in the South Atlantic League. After a mid-season promotion all the way to Double-A, he struggled at the plate, hitting just .223, but still maintained his plate discipline, a good sign for the future. There are those that see Goodwin as a 20-25 homer hitter. Depending on the rest of the Nationals lineup, that could have him leading off or hitting somewhere in the middle.
A poor final season in college allowed Bradley to drop to the back of the first round where the Red Sox grabbed him and have since watched him blossom into exactly the prospect everyone had originally expected him to be. In his first full minor league season, Bradley walked almost as often as he struck out and hit .315/.430/.482 between High and Double-A. While he didn't display much in the way of home run power, he did combine for 42 doubles, an ideal trade for a leadoff hitter. If he can continue to display that skill set, he could be atop the Red Sox batting order by the end of 2013.
Profar is the best prospect on this list, and likely the best prospect in all of baseball, but he's not a true leadoff hitter. He walks enough to handle the job, and doesn't strike out a ton, so if the Rangers continue to compile rosters with tons of power like they have the past few years he could easily end up leading off. If he develops as most scouts believe, however, the only teams he'll be leading off for are all-star teams. Profar may leadoff for the Rangers early in his career, but he'll probably ending up batting third for them in his prime, which is why he's second on this list despite being atop most prospect rankings.
A year ago, Hamilton wouldn't have been in this position. Sure he has the best speed in the game and a base-stealing hunger unlike anything in currently in baseball, but his bat still had some work to do to catch up. It did just that in 2012. The most impressive thing about Hamilton is the way he embraced his role as a leadoff hitter this season, increasing his walk rate while batting over .300. If he can even bat .260 at the major league level, he'll be on-base enough to change the game with his speed, but his development this season puts that at the low end of the spectrum. There's no reason to believe he can't hit .280/.360/.400 in the majors, which should allow him to steal around 75 bases as well. That kind of performance in front of Joey Votto will provide Reds fans with a ton of offense.
Jackie Bradley was helped off the field on Monday after injuring his ankle while running the bases, says Ken Lipshez of The Portland Press Herald. The injury is not thought to be too serious, but the Red Sox outfielder was forced to leave to leave the game and could miss a few days. Bradley is hitting .276.363/.443 since a mid-season promotion to Double-A Portland.
The Nationals took a risk drafting Lucas Giolito in the first round this season given his elbow history during his senior year of high school, and two innings into his pro career, the young right-hander had to be removed from the game due to issues with that same elbow, reports Bill Ladson of MLB.com. The issue is not unexpected, and Gioito is getting looked at to see if Tommy John surgery is needed, a scenario for which the Nationals are already prepared.
Christian Colon will miss the remainder of the season after getting hit in the face with a foul ball, says Dick Kaegel of MLB.com. The Royals second base prospect had just recently been promoted to Triple-A and was hitting .412 in five games at the new level after hitting .289/.364/.392 in Double-A.
