MLB Prospect Watch

Cole, Gausman Not Ready for Majors

We're getting to that time of the season where the anticipation of prospect call-ups begins to swell, especially for those moves we know are inevitable.  After all, the savior-in-waiting everyone knows is going to be the missing piece for said team is just too exciting to think about.

But for two of the games top pitching prospects, that time is not now.

Forget service time for a second, Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman simply aren't ready for their time in the majors just yet.

Cole is closer than Gausman.  As Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com points out, Cole's time in Triple-A this season was thought to be more of a formality than anything with any actual substance.  It was thought to be nothing more than a place to stay loose while waiting for the Super 2 barrier of his service time to pass by, like a race car forced to idle in pit row for speeding through too quickly.

But a funny thing happened while Cole was idling in Indianapolis - he struggled.  It turns out, he had a few more things to learn before he came to save the day in Pittsburgh.

As Williams illustrates, Cole is struggling with his command in the International League and isn't missing bats the way he should with his stuff.  This isn't a new problem for Cole (although his high walk numbers this season are a new, and likely temporary, blip on the radar), but I pointed out almost a year ago while scouting Cole in his Double-A debut that he failed to dominate his competition the way he should with his ability.

Cole is having a strange season, with increased walk numbers, dramatically lowered strikeout numbers, yet an ERA of just 2.55 thanks to a fortunate BABIP of just .230 and a strand rate of 83.7 percent.  Neither of those last two numbers is sustainable, hence his 4.45 FIP, easily a career high.

The Pirates probably won't hesitate to call Cole up in a month or so, although if his struggles continue, the Pirates likely won't be forced, thanks to a number of additional starting pitching options in addition to their current rotation.

The Orioles, on the other hand, don't have that type of depth.  Thanks to injuries, their already relying on Freddy Garcia and Jair Jurrjens in their rotation, a plan that doesn't seem likely to end well.  There was speculation that Gausman would be called up to take one of the open spots in the Orioles rotation, but Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun says that he's not being considered.

Which is probably the correct decision.  It's not that Gausman hasn't pitched well, but he still has just 12 professional starts to his name after just two seasons at LSU.

Like Cole, however, it's not incorrect to believe that Gausman could be in the majors at some point this season, although Cole should beat him by a few months.  Gausman could help the Orioles down the stretch if the organization stretches his innings out properly over the course of the year and isn't forced to shut him down early.  Bu September, he could be one of the only healthy Orioles pitchers left, in addition to being one of the most talented.

But for now, Gausman won't be heading to the majors, seemingly no matter how desperate the pitching situation gets in Baltimore.

MLB Prospect Watch Inbox - 5/1/13

I get questions from readers all the time, most of them for fantasy purposes.  I'm not necessarily a fantasy writer, but whatever the incentive, I enjoy interacting with readers, and frankly, am glad to have any at all, so it's time to answer some reader questions that have come in during the start to this season.

I've done this periodically in the past, but would like to do it more often, and will, if I get the questions to work with.  Questions don't have to be fantasy related, as long as they're prospect related, and the more obscure the prospect, the more likely it will be answered.  There's not a whole lot more I can say about Billy Hamilton or Mike Zunino that I can say that hasn't already been said.

If you would like to submit a question, you can click here or click SUBMIT A QUESTION in the navigation bar above from any page on the site.

The following are actual questions by readers, and the corresponding answers.  

Q: I am in a pretty deep 12 team head to head fantasy league and have been trying to figure out which prospects are worth stashing at this time. The waiver wire is thin and Wil Myers is currently being stashed. I need pitching help so I am currently holding onto Gerrit Cole (thinking he may be up soon) but guys like Nolan Arenado, Jurickson Profar, Oscar Taveras, Dylan Bundy and Zack Wheeler are sitting there. Basically I'm wondering if you could shed some light on who will get the call first / how you would rank them as a stash?

-Matt, Canada

 

A: This question came in about a week ago, and since then, Arenado has been called up by the Rockies, so he's obviously the answer here.  Wheeler will probably be called up by the Mets next, as they have all but announced that he'll join the team in June.  The Rangers still don't have a way to play Profar every day until someone gets hurt, so who knows when he'll be up.  The same applies for Taveras, whose call-up is at the mercy of Carlos Beltran's knees.  Bundy is out of minor league action for six weeks with an injury, and may not be up this season at all.

As for ranking them, Taveras and Profar have generally been the 1a and 1b in prospects this season in just about everyone's estimation, with the argument being that Taveras is the better offensive player, but Profar plays a more scarce position.  The position argument is even more drastic in fantasy baseball, which could give Profar the nod, but really it comes down to the need of your team.  After that, I'd take Wheeler then Bundy, but neither over Cole.

 

Q: Pick two hitting prospects destined to be power hitters who hit for average in the majors (a la Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun):  Jonathan Singleton, Anthony Rendon, Yaisel Puig, Miguel Sano.

Nathan, Texas

 

A:  Do I have to pick two from that list?  Cause I'm not gonna.

Of those four, Puig, I guess, would be the best choice, but also the biggest risk.  Rendon won't hit for the power of the guys you mentioned.  Sano probably won't hit for average.  Singleton is probably the most likely candidate of the four to join the level of the three vets you mentioned, but he's got to lay off the reefer first.

Oscar Taveras is probably the prospect in the minors who offers the best average/power combination.  If you're looking for a prospect who can potentially put up Bruan/Cabrera numbers, it's a short list that may begin and end with Taveras.

Taveras is the best bet to reach that level, but Wil Myers is another prospect who could combine power and average in the majors, especially if strike outs aren't a concern.

 

Prospect Scouting Reports: Starling, Taillon, Nimmo

Bubba Starling

Bubba Starling is struggling.  Despite being a 2011 draft pick and already being 20-years-old (he'll be 21 this August), Starling is just now getting his first taste of full-season ball, playing for the Lexington Legends of the South Atlantic League.  Despite his extreme athletic talent and tools, however, Starling is swinging-and-missing at an extreme rate, striking out in 37.7 percent of his at-bats, up even from his 30.2 percent rate from short-season ball last year.

Clint Scoles of PineTarPress.com has a prospect report up about Starling, including video of a number of his at-bats from this season, accurately pointing out a hitch in his swing that is at least a part of the problem for Starling.

The Royals knew that the road to the majors would be a long one for Starling, who split his time in high school with the football field, but his strike out issues are even more extreme than even they had expected.  Starling has plus-bat speed leading to big time power, but with this many swings-and-misses, his power doesn't translate into games just yet, at least not in full-season ball the way it did in rookie ball.

 

Jameson Taillon

The general consensus around the baseball world is that, of the Pirates two top pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, Cole is clearly the better of the two.  But Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com makes the case, not necessarily that Taillon is better, but that the gap may not be as big as many have believed.

Cole has been average at best this season while Taillon has come out of the gates hot, but their performances thus far in a short season aren't the reason for any changing of opinions.  The more likely reason is that Taillon had further to go in his development and is simply making bigger steps at this point because he still has bigger steps remaining to take.

Cole, having pitched in college, was much closer to being a finished product when the Pirates drafted him, as compared to Taillon, a prep draft pick.  The Pirates have also kept a more strict watch on Taillon's workload as he builds up his innings, where as Cole had three years of college work already built into his arm's endurance.  The two pitchers are actually quite similar in their games, with the biggest difference being their time tables to the majors - Taillon is generally assumed to be about one calendar year behind Cole.  

It's worth noting that Taillon's 1.00 ERA this season has been due in part to some fortunate luck.  Hitters have managed a BABIP of just .238 against him this season and his 96.4 percent strand rate is unsustainable, if not downright unbelievable.  Still, his FIP of just 2.87 is a step in the right direction, and is large in part to an increased strike out rate.  Taillon is striking out 10 batters per nine innings this season, missing bats the way many scouts expected he would with his premium stuff.

Both pitchers are excellent, so arguing over their ranking is something more for fans to do to pass the time while waiting for them to get to the majors than an actual developmental decision.  Cole should be in the majors by this season and Taillon could get a cameo in September if the Pirates don't restrict his innings, and both are extremely good.

 

Brandon Nimmo

Mets fans have been waiting to get a good look at Brandon Nimmo in full-season ball since the team drafted him in 2011, and Nimmo is making their wait worth while.  The center field prospect is hitting .424/.513/.576 in his first 17 games in the South Atlantic League.

Mike Newman of FanGraphs.com has a full scouting report on Nimmo, who, like Starling, is a long-term project for the Mets.  Unlike Starling, who shared his time with football, Nimmo is simply from Wyoming, where there wasn't much baseball for him to play.  His additional time in short-season ball last year signified how raw he was, but also displayed the Mets patience with him.

Despite his lack of experience, however, Nimmo isn't nearly as raw as Starling and already has a better approach at the plate, as evidenced by his 10:14 BB/K ratio this year.  He's not nearly the power-hitter that Starling is, so the strike outs aren't likely to follow, but the 12.5 percent walk rate in his first year in the Sally League is a promising sign.

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Prospect Action: 4/21/12

Triple-A

• Jurickson Profar hit a grand slam on Sunday, says Jake Seiner of MiLB.com, just the second of the season for the Rangers top prospect.  Profar has, however, continued to control the strike zone at the Triple-A level, drawing 10 walks in 13 games against 13 strike outs.
• Kyle Gibson continues to alternate strong starts with poor ones.  This time out, he struggled, allowing three runs in five innings while walking four.
• Despite his struggles this spring, Bruce Rondon is pitching well in Triple-A, recording his third save of the season on Sunday.  The Tigers reliever has yet to allow an earned run on the season and has walked just two batters in 7 2/3 innings.
• Gerrit Cole managed to throw four scoreless innings despite walking five and striking out just two in the outing.  It's the second time this season that the Pirates top prospect has had to leave a start early because of a high pitch count.

Double-A

• Braves lefty Alex Wood threw seven scoreless innings on Sunday, writes Danny Wild of MiLB.com.  Wood now has a 1.12 ERA over his first three starts, with 17 strike outs in 16 innings and just a pair of walks.
• Kevin Gausman wasn't great again, allowing three runs (just one earned) in five innings in his latest start.  The Orioles' 2012 first-rounder has allowed at least three runs in three of his four starts, including six each in two of them, but has struck out 21 batters in as many innings.
• Dodgers lefty Chris Reed tossed seven scoreless innings on Sunday, lowering his ERA to 3.13 on the season.  Reed's strike out rate has dropped to just 5.48 K/9 this season, but he's also lowered his BB/9 rate to a career low 2.74 in the early going this season.

High-A

• Miguel Sano hit a home run on Sunday, his sixth of the season, but was ejected while rounding the bases for taunting the opposing team, notes Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com.  The Twins top prospect his hitting .375/.438/.734 on the season and likely won't be in the Florida State League for long.
• Robbie Ray struck out 10 batters in six innings of work, but the Nationals lefty also walked four batters in the outing, says Luke Erickson of NationalsProspects.com.
• Perci Garner continues to pitch well, but the Phillies right-hander had to navigate around four walks in six scoreless innings.
• After a slow start, Alen Hanson broke out with a 4-for-5 game on Sunday to bring his batting average up to .242 on the season.

Low-A

• Bubba Starling blasted his second home run of the season as part of a 2-for-5 day that saw the Royals prospect raise his batting average to .156 on the season.  Starling has struggled to make contact in his first taste of full-season ball, striking out 26 times in his first 18 games.
• Josh Bell also hit his second home run of the season as part of a 4-hit day and is now hitting .288/.325/.493 on the season.
• Carlos Correa, last year's top overall draft pick by the Houston Astros, hit a pair of home runs on Sunday as part of a three-hit day and his first multi-homer game of his professional career.

Prospect Action - 4/16/13

Triple-A

• White Sox right-hander Andre Rienzo finally put together a solid outing, allowing just one run over six innings to earn his first victory of the season on Tuesday.  The Brazil native allowed five and seven earned runs, respectively, in his first two starts, and now lowers his ERA to 7.16 on the season.
• Gerrit Cole was strong, allowing just one run in 6 1/3 innings while striking out five, but walking four in the outing.  It's the best start of the season for the Pirates top prospect, who allowed three runs in his first outing and had his second start shortened by pitch count limitations.
• After a rough start his last time out, Kyle Gibson put together his best outing of the year, allowing just one run over six innings while striking out five.  The Twins prospect has two one-run outings on the season, sandwiching a poor start in which he gave up five runs.
• Jurickson Profar hit his first home run of the season, a three-run blast off of Astros pitching prospect Brett Oberholtzer as part of a three-hit day that also included a triple.  The Rangers still have Profar playing short stop, despite their extension with Elvis Andrus.
• Nolan Arenado put together a two-hit night, but the Rockies third base prospect was outdone by his hot corner counterpart Matt Davidson, who had a double and a homer in support of fellow Diamondbacks prospect Chase Anderson, who struck out seven over six innings.

Double-A

• J.R. Graham took a no-decision despite seven strikeouts in six innings of one-run ball from the Braves right-hander.
• Jesse Biddle wasn't sharp, but he was still effective, as the Phillies top prospect battled through four walks in six innings to allow just one run while striking out eight.
• For the second time in three starts, Kevin Gausman got hit around hard.  This time the Orioles prospect allowed 10 hits over six innings while allowing six runs (five earned).

High-A

• Miguel Sano, still playing third base, hit his fourth home run of the season and is now batting .413 this season.
• Justin Nicolino was strong on Tuesday, as the Marlins prospect allowed just one baserunner in five innings of work.  It was the best outing of the year for Nicolino, who came over to the Marlins in this off-season's blockbuster trade.
• Clayton Blackburn continues to dominate the tough California League, as the Giants pitching prospect struck out nine in six innings, and saw his ERA raise (slightly) to 1.06 on the year.  Blackburn has a 21-to-2 strike out to walk ratio on the season.

Low-A

• Michael Ynoa gave the A's a lot to be optimistic about on Tuesday, putting together his best start as a professional.  The Dominican bonus baby struck out five batters in three innings, allowing only an unearned run.  The fact that he's healthy and making his starts is a good sign for the A's, but his improved command and ability to miss some bats are real signs of progress.
• Parker Bridwell is finally pitching the way the Orioles expected, allowing two runs in five innings for his third straight solid outing.  Bridwell has been highly-touted for years, but has never been able to translate his ability into on-field produciton.  He is repeating the South Atlantic League this season.
• Stetson Allie continued his power surge, as the converted pitcher hit his sixth home run as part of a four-hit day that raised his batting average to .411 on the year.  The Pirates converted him into a first baseman relatively quickly after drafting him as a pitcher, but the move has paid off thus far as Allie dominates the Sally League in the early going.