MLB Prospect Watch

MLB Prospect Watch Inbox - 5/1/13

I get questions from readers all the time, most of them for fantasy purposes.  I'm not necessarily a fantasy writer, but whatever the incentive, I enjoy interacting with readers, and frankly, am glad to have any at all, so it's time to answer some reader questions that have come in during the start to this season.

I've done this periodically in the past, but would like to do it more often, and will, if I get the questions to work with.  Questions don't have to be fantasy related, as long as they're prospect related, and the more obscure the prospect, the more likely it will be answered.  There's not a whole lot more I can say about Billy Hamilton or Mike Zunino that I can say that hasn't already been said.

If you would like to submit a question, you can click here or click SUBMIT A QUESTION in the navigation bar above from any page on the site.

The following are actual questions by readers, and the corresponding answers.  

Q: I am in a pretty deep 12 team head to head fantasy league and have been trying to figure out which prospects are worth stashing at this time. The waiver wire is thin and Wil Myers is currently being stashed. I need pitching help so I am currently holding onto Gerrit Cole (thinking he may be up soon) but guys like Nolan Arenado, Jurickson Profar, Oscar Taveras, Dylan Bundy and Zack Wheeler are sitting there. Basically I'm wondering if you could shed some light on who will get the call first / how you would rank them as a stash?

-Matt, Canada

 

A: This question came in about a week ago, and since then, Arenado has been called up by the Rockies, so he's obviously the answer here.  Wheeler will probably be called up by the Mets next, as they have all but announced that he'll join the team in June.  The Rangers still don't have a way to play Profar every day until someone gets hurt, so who knows when he'll be up.  The same applies for Taveras, whose call-up is at the mercy of Carlos Beltran's knees.  Bundy is out of minor league action for six weeks with an injury, and may not be up this season at all.

As for ranking them, Taveras and Profar have generally been the 1a and 1b in prospects this season in just about everyone's estimation, with the argument being that Taveras is the better offensive player, but Profar plays a more scarce position.  The position argument is even more drastic in fantasy baseball, which could give Profar the nod, but really it comes down to the need of your team.  After that, I'd take Wheeler then Bundy, but neither over Cole.

 

Q: Pick two hitting prospects destined to be power hitters who hit for average in the majors (a la Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun):  Jonathan Singleton, Anthony Rendon, Yaisel Puig, Miguel Sano.

Nathan, Texas

 

A:  Do I have to pick two from that list?  Cause I'm not gonna.

Of those four, Puig, I guess, would be the best choice, but also the biggest risk.  Rendon won't hit for the power of the guys you mentioned.  Sano probably won't hit for average.  Singleton is probably the most likely candidate of the four to join the level of the three vets you mentioned, but he's got to lay off the reefer first.

Oscar Taveras is probably the prospect in the minors who offers the best average/power combination.  If you're looking for a prospect who can potentially put up Bruan/Cabrera numbers, it's a short list that may begin and end with Taveras.

Taveras is the best bet to reach that level, but Wil Myers is another prospect who could combine power and average in the majors, especially if strike outs aren't a concern.

 

Now We Can Worry About Dylan Bundy

I asked the question last week, "When Should We Worry About Dylan Bundy's Injury?" in response reports that Dylan Bundy still had yet to throw off of a mound, despite the fact that the Orioles had said nothing more about his injury than that he had "mild elbow tightness."  The Orioles appeared to be downplaying his injury, as the timetable for his recovery didn't match up with their public diagnosis.

Well, now we can begin to worry.

Bundy saw world-famous surgeon Dr. James Andrews on Tuesday to get a second opinion on his "elbow tightness," reports Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun.  Andrews' name is most notably associated with Tommy John Surgery, as he performances the operation on most of the high-profile baseball players who require the procedure.

Visiting Andrews, however, doesn't automatically mean Bundy will need surgery and miss a year.  In fact, one of the reasons team's visit Andrews is to get an accurate opinion on whether surgery is the best option, or whether rehabilitation is a possibility.  Orioles fans are naturally going to panic when they hear this news, a reaction which is being incited by some in the Baltimore media, but the facts are that this isn't necessarily the end-of-the-world news it seems to be.

Having a top pitching prospect visit Dr. Andrews is never good, but let's not jump to the conclusion that surgery is needed just yet.  What it does mean, however, is that Bundy probably isn't pitching any time soon.

If surgery is needed, Bundy will miss the season, and part of next year.  The timetable for recovering from Tommy John is about 12 months.  But if it's not needed, it will be because Dr. Andrews believes that whatever is causing Bundy's discomfort can be fixed by rest and rehabilitation, both of which take time.

Most fans hear Dr. Andrews' name and assume the worst, and it's true that Tommy John Surgery is a possibility here.  But it's not the only final option with this visit.

What can be sure now with this news, however, is that Bundy is further from returning this season than the Orioles let on.

When Should We Worry About Dylan Bundy's Injury?

Dylan Bundy hasn't thrown a pitch yet this year.  You may not have realized that, given that little has been made about his about the "mild elbow tightness" that shut him down in late March, but Bundy is in fact out with an elbow injury.

According to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun, Bundy still has yet to throw off the mound and is "doing strengthening exercises."  He is reportedly pain-free.

These are the facts.  What do they mean mean?

We have to take any information coming out of Orioles camp with a grain of salt.  They're not exactly going to be eager to share information about Bundy, especially if it's bad news.  He is reportedly "pain-free," but even if he wasn't, we might not know.  It's also quite early in the season.  Bundy has only missed two weeks of the minor league season, so it's not time to hit the panic button just yet.

But it is slightly concerning that he isn't even throwing yet, although the Orioles have been incredibly protective with Bundy, greatly restricting him throughout his professional career from doing the thing he does best - throwing a baseball.  It's concerning because the initial report came with a negative MRI, which means there is no structural damage in the elbow or forearm.  That being the case, two weeks seems like it's bordering on becoming a long time not to be throwing at all.

To answer my title question, it's still too early to really worry about Bundy, but we're getting closer to that point.  Given that he will have to re-build his arm strength, and the Orioles extreme caution with him, it could still be a while before we see Bundy on a field, and that's if he starts throwing again soon.

If he's still not throwing at all by the end of the month, we can officially worry.  Strengthening the elbow and forearm is a good thing, but at some point, if there's really no pain, Bundy needs to be able to get back on the mound.

Hopefully this is just extreme caution being practiced by the Orioles, and given their track record, that's certainly possible.  It's not time to worry quite yet, but if Bundy doesn't start throwing soon, it will be.

Injury Update: Bundy, Gregorius

Bundy Temporarily Shut Down

On Monday, one day before their major league regular season began, the Baltimore Orioles announced that top prospect Dylan Bundy was going to be shut down with "mild elbow tightness," reports Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun.  An MRI of the elbow was negative.

This is likely nothing other than the effects of spring training, but with Bundy, the Orioles have been extremely cautious from the beginning.  He will resume a throwing program once he returns in order to rebuild his arm strength, so his ability to begin the season in the Double-A Bowie rotation is in jeopardy.

Long-term this isn't a big deal unless the pain returns or gets worse, but it could delay the start of his season, and is something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

 

Gregorious Cleared to Return

Didi Gregorius was unable to throw all spring due to an elbow strain, but the Diamondbacks new shortstop prospect is slated to return to simulated game action this week, reports Tyler Emerick of MLB.com.

Gregorius, who was one of the centerpieces of the off-season trade that included Trevor Bauer, was thought to be a part of the Diamondbacks plans this spring, but was shut down this spring after experiencing pain in his elbow.  Once he returns, he should begin the season in Triple-A and could be in the majors once healthy.

Gausman Finally Sent Down, Extended Stay Means Nothing

The Baltimore Orioles finally sent down 2012 first-round draft pick Kevin Gausman after keeping him in major league camp for the majority of spring training, reports Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com.  Despite the extended stay, however, Gausman was never in any contention of making the Orioles major league roster this spring.  The team simply wanted to get as long of a look as they could at their newest top prospect.

Much was made, way too much in fact, of the fact that Gausman lasted longer in Orioles camp than fellow top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy, as though Gausman's extended stay signaled some kind of changing of the guard as to whom would eventually lead the Orioles future rotation.  The reality, however, is that Bundy is on the 40-man roster and Gausman is not, which makes a huge difference in spring training.

Any player on the 40-man roster who is still in major league camp after a certain date during the spring (it varies from year to year - this year it was March 15th) is subject to being placed on the major league disabled list if he hets hurt while still in major league camp and misses time during the regular season.  While on the disabled list, his service-time clock would run.  Not coincidentally, fBundy was sent down on March 16th.

So, for example, if Dylan Bundy had remained in camp and pitched in a game on the 17th and gotten hit by a line-drive and broken his arm, he would have to be placed on the major league DL and his service clock would run while he was there.  The risk for any prospects who don't have a real chance to make the major league roster is just too great, which is why so many top prospects are invited to spring training, see lots of game action in early March, then are sent down in the first or second round of cuts.

Because Gausman has yet to be put on the Orioles 40-man roster, he was not subject to this risk.  If he got hurt tomorrow, he would be re-assigned to minor league camp and eventually land on the minor league DL once the season began, should the injury persist.  There was nothing to lose by keeping him in camp, other than the opportunity cost of the playing time he was receiving that could have gone to players that actually had a chance to make the Orioles roster.  The Orioles obviously decided that this cost was worth it and given that Gausman could be in the majors by the end of the season, I'd agree.

Gausman, for what it's worth, had a strong spring, posting a 3.94 ERA in seven games and striking out more than a batter per inning.  He is slated to being the season along side Bundy in Orioles Double-A rotation, making Bowie, MD a destination site this spring.

Gausman is very much a part of the Orioles immediate future, and his lengthy stay in spring training does indicate that to a certain extent, but by no means does his increased time with the major league team compared to Bundy signify anything in terms of where either prospect stands in the eyes of the organization.  Both are held in the highest esteem both by the Orioles and the rest of the prospect world and both could be in Baltimore this season.

And both are very, very good.