Baseball is a cyclical game. Trends come and go, as do theories on how to build a roster and fill out a lineup. In the 80’s, speed was all the rage. Players were stealing bases in bunches, and leadoff hitters were expected to run. Constantly. Getting on base and avoiding making outs was of secondary concern.
The 1990’s saw a decline in running and an increase in power that led to leadoff hitters routinely posting 20+ homer seasons and managers afraid to send runners when it was so easy to drive them in from first base.
20 – Eric Young, Jr. (COL) – 2B/CF – Triple-A
19 – Logan Watkins (CHC) – SS/2B – Low-A
18 – Derrik Gibson (BOS) – SS/2B – Low-A
17 – Xavier Avery (BAL) – CF – High-A
Avery makes the list because scouts compare him to Carl Crawford and Kenny Lofton, but at this point he’s more style than substance. The difference between Avery and those two at this point is simply the ability to hit. Scouts think Avery will hit, but he hasn’t shown enough of it yet. Fortunately, the un-teachable aspects of the game (like great speed) are already there, so if and when he develops as a hitter, look out.
16 – Matthew Angle (BAL) – CF – Triple-A
15 – Anthony Gose (PHI) – CF – High-A
14 – A.J. Pollock (ARI) – CF – Low-A
Pollock’s placement on this list was a tough one, partly because of the little professional experience he has had, and partly because scout’s views differ on his overall ability. A strong case could be made for him being higher, but I’ll reserve that honor until I see some production on the field. The D-Backs drafted Pollock with one of their two first round picks this past season, and he responded with a solid half-season after signing. The question, however, is what indication that performance is of his abilities. Pollack, a college hitter, had an advanced approach for the competition he was seeing in the Midwest League, and may have been able to parlay that into a successful season. He doesn’t have the blazing speed of many on this list, but should be able to stay in centerfield and managed to steal 10 bases in a half-season last year. He does, however, have a leadoff-hitters approach at the plate, spraying line drives to all fiends and focusing on getting on base. For now, Pollock is out with a fractured growth plate and has yet to play this season, so the D-Backs will have to wait to see how his bat plays at higher levels
13 – Chase D’Arnaud (PIT) – SS – Double-A
D’Arnaud fits in the same category as Pollock, but we know more about him. A middle infielder who is at short stop now but could end up at second base, D’Arnaud doesn’t have the blazing speed of many leadoff hitters, but still managed to steal 31 bases last season. What he does have is a professional hitting approach and a good eye at the plate. D’Arnaud’s skill set probably fits best as a two hitter on a team with more of a traditional leadoff hitter ahead of him, but in order to fill either role, he will have to cut back on the strikeouts. One strikeout every 5.75 at-bats is just too many for a guy with a .432 career slugging percentage.
12 – Jemile Weeks (OAK) – 2B – Double-A
11 – Michael Brantley (CLE) – CF – Triple-A
Brantley technically just exhausted his rookie status (and thus his prospect status according to most publications), but I’m going to let it slide since he just passed it this week and is back in the minors again after spending the first two weeks in Cleveland. Brantley’s entire value falls in his ability to get on base (which he does very well) and his ability to turn those singles and walks into doubles by stealing bases (which he has done with 81% effectiveness in the minors). He’s an above-average centerfielder who would be an excellent left-fielder for a team who could afford to trade defense for power at a corner outfield spot. The Indians’ willingness to make that sacrifice will determine whether or not he is ever their leadoff hitter on a consistent basis. He could, however, profile as a Juan Pierre-type player with a slightly lower batting average but more walks.
10 – Reymond Fuentes (BOS) – CF – Low-A
Fuentes has the speed, bat, and bloodlines (he’s Carlos Beltran’s cousin) to be a major league leadoff hitter, so the only thing that could derail him is his eye at the plate. It’s nothing for the Red Sox to worry about yet because Fuentes is so young and has only played one-half of a professional season, but they will need to see an improvement in his 24/7 K:BB ratio if they continue to develop him as their leadoff hitter of the future. Early returns in 2010 have been good (4 walks to 8 strikeouts in 39 at-bats), and the fleet-footed Fuentes is also a perfect 6-for-6 stealing bases through only 12 games, so the Red Sox have reasons to be optimistic. As long as Fuentes can walk at a respectable rate, he should hit for enough average to be an effective leadoff hitter.
9 – Ben Revere (MIN) – CF – Double-A
The first thing that stands out about Revere’s stat line is the .378 batting average that he put up in 2008 in the Midwest League. That, of course, was fueled by a .414 BABIP that would be impossible to maintain. The good news, however, is that he has hit no lower than .312 in any other season, with more reasonable BABIP rates. Revere’s ability to hit for contact is his most overwhelming tool (he’s never struck out more than 35 times in a season) and while his eye at the plate is not as particular as the Twins would like, if he continues to hit for a high enough average, it will be enough. He will have to maintain his ability to hit for average, however, because he has virtually no power to speak of.
8 – Tyson Gillies (PHI) – CF – Double-A
7 – Peter Bourjos (LAA) – CF – Triple-A
Bourjos always had speed, and because he knows how to use it, he’s always had value as a prospect because of his defensive abilities. But his season last year, in which he more than doubled his previous single-season walk totals without losing any production as a hitter, paved the way for a path to the top of the Angels’ lineup. He will have to show he can sustain that plate discipline this season at Triple-A, because without it he does not high for a high enough average to head a potent lineup, but assuming he can maintain a respectable walk rate, his speed at the top of the lineup should be a fun toy for Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia to enjoy.
6 – Jared Mitchell (CWS) – CF – Low-A (injured)
The only reason Mitchell is this low in the list is the devastating Achilles injury he suffered this spring, which likely knocks him out for the season. Mitchell’s athleticism is off-the-charts, as you could imagine for someone who played on a national championship football team. Mitchell actually managed to get 115 at-bats last season after signing, and showed an advanced approach at the plate for someone who has yet to focus on baseball full time. His strike out rate is way too high, but if he can get that under control, his patient eye at the plate, strength to drive the ball in the gaps, and plus speed could make him a fixture atop the White Sox lineup. The only question is whether or not he retains his athleticism after the injury.
5 – Dee Gordon (LAD) – SS – Double-A
Gordon likely has the biggest gap between best and worst-case scenario of any prospect on this list. The top prospect in a Dodgers’ system with a great history of churning out homegrown major league stars, Gordon is unlike many raw players in that he has still produced great minor league numbers. Most prospects that require projection from scouts struggle until they make the adjustments necessary to put their immense talents to use on a baseball field. Scouts see Gordon and point out parts of his game that need refinement, yet he has a career batting average of .311. He needs to be more disciplined at the plate in order to be a leadoff hitter, yet his walk rate is only slightly below where it needs to be despite what scouts observe as an inability to recognize pitches consistently. Gordon would be a good prospect, even if he had hit his ceiling, but he might not be a great leadoff prospect. If he continues to progress the way scouts believe he can, he could be one of the most dynamic leadoff men in the game.
4 – Mike Trout (LAA) – CF – Low-A
Where as scouts look at Dee Gordon and see an athlete learning to play baseball, they see Mike Trout and see a pure baseball player. Trout was a 1st round prep draft pick this past year, yet his refined approach at the plate and advanced hitting approach for a high school player led to a .352 batting average in 2009. He’s off to an even better start in the Midwest League this season, currently hitting .355. Trout demonstrated all the necessary attributes for a leadoff hitter: good eye at the plate, plus hitting ability, and plus speed. He also displayed solid power, not in a home run sense, but he had 15 extra-base hits in 179 at-bats, which is enough power to be productive. Trout is still a long way from the majors, which may be the only knock on him, and if he continues to impress, he could move quickly through the Angels’ system.
3 – Jiovanni Mier (HOU) – SS – Low-A
2 – Dustin Ackley (SEA) - 2B - Double-A
Ackley’s hitting reputation preceded him into professional baseball, and this ranking, along with most others, are based purely on what scouts have said is one of the most professional swings and pure hitting ability to come along in the draft since the likes of Joe Mauer. Ackley is off to a cold start in his first professional season (7 for his first 49), but his production so far is irrelevant. Ackley is not blazing fast, but has plus speed and knows how to use it. He has displayed enough power to be an effective major league hitter, but not too much to move down in the lineup. What separates Ackley from other prospects, according to scouts, are his combination of all the things that make a good hitter – pitch recognition and the ability to make consistent contact – categories in which Ackley rates off the charts. If he can consistently hit .300 and have a good eye at the plate (which scouts would say is the bottom-level of his potential), he’ll be the leadoff hitter for the Mariners as soon as Ichiro and Chone Figgins are ready to make room for him.
1 – Desmond Jennings (TB) - CF - Triple-A
Jennings is the next version of the new generation prototype leadoff hitter who is equal parts athlete and baseball player. He’s a similar type player to the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, but a few inches bigger and with slightly less power, more speed, and a better eye at the plate. He may top out at 20 homeruns (and likely hit 10-15 per season), but his power is evident in his accumulation of doubles and triples. Even more important to the leadoff role, Jennings has 151 career walks in the minors to 178 career strikeouts. His ability to make contact at the plate without compromising the strike zone, then steal second once he’s there may lessen the blow to Rays’ fans if Carl Crawford departs after (or during) the season. Jennings has not only stolen 137 bases in 314 games, but he’s done so at an 82.5% rate of success. The only knock on Jennings is his ability to stay healthy, as he has missed some period of time in each of his professional seasons, including the first two weeks of 2010. Assuming his health is in tact, however, Jennings is merely biding his time in Durham until there is an opening in Tampa, either via trade or as a mid-season call-up to support a playoff run.
