MLB Prospect Watch

Making the Comparison - Anthony Rizzo

Despite his talents and being just 22-years-old, Anthony Rizzo is already with his third organization.  This is not an indictment on Rizzo by any means, and in fact is more a proclamation of his abilities.  The Cubs are the third organization to want him, and for Rizzo, it will finally offer him the change to play full-time.

Of course, if he had produced more in his 49-game stint with San Diego last season, he'd still be a Padre, he would have blown his rookie/prospect eligibility out of the water, and we would already know exactly what kind of player Rizzo is.  But he didn't. He didn't produce at all.  He didn't even just struggle.  He batted about 50 points below struggle.

In fact, the only thing Rizzo did well offensively while in San Diego was walk at a higher rate than he ever had in the minors, which gives us a glimmer of hope that his struggles were a fluke, and for those of us that care about these sort of things, is also the reason he's still rookie eligible for 2012.

What we know: Rizzo is a 6'3" left-handed hitting first baseman with a slightly long swing that leads to above-average strikeout totals.  He has an above-average eye at the plate and could hit anywhere from .260 to .300, depending on how he adjusts to the majors.  He has good doubles power, and should routinely hit between 30 and 40 per season, and should hit between 25-30 homers per year.  He has also struggled against lefties in the minors, no more so than most young left-handed hitters, but enough that he'll have to improve.

How this works:  I wrote up the explanation on The Hardball Times website back in 2010

Rizzo's career minor league totals are as follows:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	17	Red Sox	GULF	Rk	BOS	6	24	21	6	6	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	2	.286	.375	.429	.804
2008	18	Greenville	SALL	A	BOS	21	87	83	9	31	6	0	0	11	0	0	3	15	.373	.402	.446	.848
2009	19	2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-A+	BOS	119	503	445	63	132	37	0	12	66	4	1	50	99	.297	.368	.461	.828
2009	19	Greenville	SALL	A	BOS	64	274	245	40	73	21	0	9	42	2	1	25	60	.298	.365	.494	.859
2009	19	Salem	CARL	A+	BOS	55	229	200	23	59	16	0	3	24	2	0	25	39	.295	.371	.420	.791
2010	20	2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A+	BOS	136	602	531	92	138	42	0	25	100	10	1	61	132	.260	.334	.480	.814
2010	20	Salem	CARL	A+	BOS	29	135	117	26	29	12	0	5	20	3	0	16	32	.248	.333	.479	.812
2010	20	Portland	EL	AA	BOS	107	467	414	66	109	30	0	20	80	7	1	45	100	.263	.334	.481	.815
2011	21	Tucson	PCL	AAA	SDP	93	413	356	64	118	34	1	26	101	7	6	43	89	.331	.404	.652	1.056
5 Seasons						375	1629	1436	234	425	119	1	64	281	21	8	158	337	.296	.366	.514	.880

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/13/2012.

There have been some consistencies and variations with Rizzo throughout his career.  For instance, his power has been pretty consistent, with 34-42 doubles for three straight seasons, and homers in the mid-20's for two straight seasons, primarily in the upper minors.  The main variation has been in his batting averages, but that can be partially attributed to swings in his BABIP, which was roughly 60 points lower in 2010 than it was in 2009 and 2011.  With the truth likely somewhere in the middle, his future batting averages likely are as well, which probably means in the .275-.285 range.

So let's start with the best case scenario.  Let's assume that he learns from his poor 2011 and becomes much more like the version of himself that raked in Triple-A last season.  I think .331 seems optimistic, but a string of .300/30/100/75 walk seasons in the prime of his career doesn't seem out of the question, does it?

For my first search, I looked for first baseman who were at least 6'2" (remember, being a taller hitter leads to a longer swing and thus more strikeouts), and had the most seasons hitting over .300, more than 30 home runs, and over 75 walks (the RBI's will be a byproduct of the others) since 1961.  Here are the results:

Rk		Yrs
1	Todd Helton	5
2	Jason Giambi	3
3	Carlos Delgado	2
4	Fred McGriff	2
5	Joey Votto	1
6	Ryan Howard	1
7	Jim Thome	1
8	Willie McCovey	1
9	Jim Gentile	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/13/2012.

That's an impressive list, but don't get too excited yet, Cubs fans.  First, we have to eliminate anyone who had a 40-homer season.  This is a best case scenario we're looking for, but I don't realistically see Rizzo having a 40-homer season unless global warming is making Wrigley even windier.

Eliminating the 40-homer guys leaves us with just Votto and McGriff.  Votto has already won an MVP, batted over .300 three times, and posted on-base percentages over .400 three times...in four full seasons.  That seems a little aggressive for Rizzo.  We already stretched here to get .300/30/100/75 for Rizzo.  Or more accurately, our best-case scenario for Rizzo has been Votto's worst offensive season to date.  I'm not comfortable with that.

But let's look at McGriff as a comp.  That one is interesting.

First, forget about McGriff's impressive longevity.  When predicting player's futures, we could never expect a player to play 19 seasons and come to bat over 10,000 times.  McGriff batted over .300 four times, but never above .318.  That's not unrealistic, and if Rizzo does manage to play 19 seasons, I'll bet he can get over .300 four times.  McGriff hit over 30 homers 10 times.  I'd be shocked if Rizzo does that, but McGriff never hit more than 37, so he and Rizzo are in the same class when it comes to power, if not with consistency.  McGriff walked over 75 times in 9 different seasons, and broke the 100 mark twice.  Rizzo has that in him.

But the best evidence that we're on the right track here is McGriff's 162 game career averages.  Per 162 games in his career, McGriff hit .284/.377/.509 with 29 doubles and 32 homers.  If I had to venture a guess, I'd say a few more of Rizzo's homers fall just short for doubles, but otherwise I like the comp.  From 1992-96, when McGriff made four all-star games in five seasons, he averaged .293/.376/.537 with 30 doubles and 32 homers.  That sounds an awful lot like the best-case prime of Rizzo's career, minus McGriff's impressive longevity and Tom Emanski commercial.

If Rizzo emulates McGriff it'll be because his power continues to develop, he continues to refine his swing mechanics to cut down on strikeouts, and his plate discipline continues to be what it was in the majors.  That's a lot of ifs.  The most realistic possibility is that Rizzo's plate discipline remains at worst above average and more than likely ends up being very good.  He will hit for power, but probably won't break 35 homers in a season, and probably won't hit too far over .300 very often.  So let's refine our search.

Let's narrow it down to first basemen who hit less than .310 while having on-base percentages of over .380, with between 20 and 35 homers.  We get the following players who had more than one such season:

Rk		Yrs
1	Fred McGriff	5
2	Ryan Klesko	3
3	John Olerud	3
4	John Mayberry	3
5	Carlos Delgado	2
6	Jim Thome	2
7	Will Clark	2
8	Mo Vaughn	2
9	Alvin Davis	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/13/2012.

The fact that McGriff came up on top again makes me feel great about our first comp, but since we already used him we can eliminate him for this one.  The next group all did it three times.  We can remove Olerud since I doubt Rizzo will ever flirt with .400 or win a batting title.

The other two, I love.  I was tempted to go with Mayberry (this is Mayberry, Sr., not the one currently on the Phillies), but his three full seasons hitting in the .230's scared me off.  For a realistic high-end comp for Rizzo, we're going to assume he hits better than that.

Which leaves us with Klesko.  I'll admit that when I saw his name on this list I almost went back and changed the criteria because I didn't think the results reflected he type of player Rizzo can be, but then I took a closer look at Klesko's numbers and I think he gets short-changed because of the era in which he played.  Wouldn't Cubs fans be thrilled with a 10-year stretch where Rizzo averages .282/.371/.522 with 26 doubles and 24 homers per season?  That was Klesko from 1994 to 2003.

And that's a realistic ceiling for Rizzo.  And both were listed at 6'3" 225 lbs., so they're even built the same way.  I love when things work out this well.

Now, what happens if Rizzo doesn't quite figure out lefties enough to be a complete hitter?  It's enough of an issue to take a .280 hitter and make him a .250 hitter.  Just look at Ryan Howard.

So my for next search, I looked for first basemen who hit less than .260 with an OBP of over .340 (we're assuming his plate discipline stays in tact for the time being) and between 20 and 30 home runs to see who did it the most times.  Four players did it more than once:

Rk		Yrs
1	John Mayberry	2
2	Boog Powell	2
3	Jim Gentile	2
4	Norm Cash	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/13/2012.

Unfortunately, all of these guys played before I was born.  That doesn't mean they don't work as comps.  It just means I have to go off of stats alone.

Mayberry makes the list again and I like him better the the others.  Boog Powell was by all accounts a bigger guy (and having your name on a Bar-B-Que at Camden Yards doesn't help that reputation any), and Rizzo is a completely different build.  Norm Cash doesn't fit real well given that he won a batting title by hitting .361 one year (although oddly enough, it was about 100 points above his next best year), but also hit 41 homers that year.  That's just too many things Rizzo can't do.  Gentile fits for a short stretch of his career, but he was done by age 30 and out of baseball a year or two later.

But Mayberry is a good comp here.  Where as his low batting averages scared me off before, it does serve as a realistic low-end possibility, especially if Rizzo never fully learns how to hit lefties.  And Mayberry was a good player who had a very nice career, despite hitting almost 40 points lower off lefties than righties over the course of his career.  If the worst-case scenario for Rizzo is a 10-year prime averaging .259/.366/.449 with 22 doubles and 24 homers, the Cubs are headed the right direction.

Thus far we've remained pretty optimistic on Rizzo, essentially disregarding his struggles in the majors last season and basing this off of scouting reports and his minor league numbers as if his time in San Diego never happened.  Which I'm ok with for now.

Rizzo was called up to San Diego a few months too early, asked to bat in the middle of a terrible lineup, and hit in the worst hitter's park in the majors.  That doesn't explain why he struck out so much, but it doesn't explain the added pressure that players sometimes put on themselves that can lead to disastrous numbers over short periods of time.

But what if Rizzo's struggles can't be dismissed so easily?  What if his elongated swing really does create a hole that can only be properly exploited by major league pitching?  What if he couples that with never learning how to hit lefties, and the combination of those two struggles take its toll on his plate discipline as well?

Usually when I do these comps, the worst-case scenario is a bit far fetched.  I don't think the wheels are going to completely come off of Rizzo the way I described above, but I will say that his extreme struggles in a "small but big enough to worry" sample size bring disaster into play significantly more than with most top prospects.

So let's do one last search.   It may be the Bartman scenario of Rizzo's career possibilities, but hey, it is the Cubs.

This time we'll look for first basemen who hit below .250 with an on-base still over .300 (his plate discipline won't go away completely - plate discipline doesn't do that), with less than 20 home runs and more than 120 strike outs.  Our result gets two players:

Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena.

Pena is out because he hit 49 home runs one season and is a three-true outcome time of hitter.  Rizzo does not profile as that kind of hitter.

Overbay, on the other hand, works here.  Overbay did have a few nice years early in his career, including a three year stretch where he averaged .296/.375/.479 with 44 doubles and 19 homers, something Rizzo too can do and even in a worst-case scenario, I'd be surprised if Rizzo doesn't put together a few good seasons.

But soon after that stretch, something happened and Overbay was never the same again.  Ether the league figured him out, he got old, came off the PED's (hey, the timing is right for it) or perhaps the most likely of all, just wasn't that good to begin with and had been outperforming his own abilities for a three year stretch.  It happens all the time.  Since then, Overbay has averaged .252/.338/.416 with 31 doubles and 14 homers, which might work at some positions but is a virtual black hole offensively at first base.  And with his career OPS coming in 119 points lower against lefties for his career, it's not hard to figure out what happened.

So there you have it.  If everything falls right for Anthony Rizzo and the Cubs, we could be looking at a Fred McGriff-type prime, although not necessarily his longevity.  More realistically, Rizzo could be somewhere between the next Ryan Klesko and the next John Mayberry, Sr., with the black cloud of a Lyle Overbay type career path looming over his time at Wrigley.

The good news for Cubs fans is that these are all players who were at some point well above-average major league players, and I do believe that at some point in his career, Rizzo will have a stretch where he is as well.  He still has some holes in his game to fix, and the Cubs have said they're going to start him in the minors in 2012 to help him fix them, but even if only two of the three main aspects of his game (hitting ability, power and plate discipline) develop properly, we're still looking at a borderline all-star first baseman.

Cardenas Claimed by Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have claimed INF Adrian Cardenas off of waivers from the Oakland A's, reports Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.

Drafted 37th overall by the Phillies in the 2006 draft out of a South Florida high school, Cardenas has always been able to hit.  In fact, he holds a career .303 batting average in over 2800 minor league at-bats.  The problem with Cardenas is that he's always been a "tweener."

Drafted as a shortstop, he never profiled to stay at the position.  Some scouts envisioned a second baseman, while some saw him as a third baseman and some thought he'd have to end up in left field.  The Phillies shifted him to second base in 2007 before trading him to Oakland in the Joe Blanton deal in 2008.  

Cardenas continued to hit for average, but unfortunately never developed any power, making him a less than ideal fit for corner positions like third base and left field.  His defense at second base was average at best, and his plate discipline remained below average, making him a less than desirable top-of-the-order hitter.

With hitting for average becoming his only plus tool, Cardenas has developed into something of a Placido Polanco-type player, but with below average defense, which means a player without a ton of value.  In fact, in a search of players who played either second base, third base of left field and hit above .300 with an OBP below .370 and less than 10 home runs, Baseball-Reference.com came up with Polanco and Bobby Richardson as the players with the most similar seasons (8), but both of them were good defenders.  After that it was Mark Grudzieanek (6), who played more SS than Cardenas ever will, but is the best example of what he could be once he moved to second base - a solid average hitter with good doubles power that doesn't walk enough or have quite enough power to be completely effective.

Cardenas could profile now as a versatile bench player, who could enter a game late as a pinch hitter and play a number of defensive positions, giving a team versatility, as long as none of those positions need to be played well.

It's not a great role, but if he continues to hit for average, teams will continue to give him a chance.

MLB Prospect Watch Inbox - 2/5/12

Here at MLB Prospect Watch, we want to answer the prospect questions that you have.  After all, we're here for you.  So any time you have a prospect question, just send it to us using the Submit a Question tab on the navigation bar above.  When we get enough questions to make an entire post out of it, we'll answer them.  

 

Q:  If you could only have one of them, which of the Pirates stud pitching prospects would you rather have?  Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole?

 -James in Renfrew, PA

MLBPW:  Thanks for the lob to start with, James.  Geez.  Luckily the Pirates don't have to pick between the two because it wouldn't be an easy choice.  Cole has yet to throw a professional pitch, so that always makes him a riskier choice, but just given his age and the fact that even though he hasn't appeared professionally yet, he's still much closer to the majors than Taillon.  That's really the only difference between the two at this point - age and proximity to the majors.  They are both immensely talented, although Cole does throw a little harder, and his off-speed stuff is a little more refined.  But that's to be expected.  Don't be shocked to see Taillion in a few years exactly where Cole is now.

 

Q:  Who is the best shortstop prospect in the game today?

 -Jaquan in Oakland, CA

MLBPW:  There's a couple different ways to answer this question.  The best defensive shortstops are probably Freddy Galvis of the Phillies and Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox, but there are serious questions about whether either one will hit enough to play full-time, especially Galvis.  So they can't be considered the best shortstop prospects in the game.  There are also some serious prospects that are shortstops right now, but will never play shortstop in the majors, like Miguel Sano of the Twins, who's already playing as much third base as he is shortstop.  So in order to answer this question, I'm only going to consider prospects who are going to stick at shortstop and be good enough to play every day.

There two shortstops in the minors right now that have separated themselves from the rest.  Manny Machado had a tremendous first full season in the Orioles system, playing well enough at short to make people believe he can stick there and hitting well, especially before a mid-season knee injury.  He's among the best already, and is only in A-ball.  Jurickson Profar is even younger than Machado, but had a great 2011 season, posting an .893 OPS in Low-A ball as an 18-year-old.  The Rangers love his power/speed combo (57 extra-base hits and 23 steals) and his plate discipline (65 walks to 63 strike outs) and believe he will be more consistent with his glove as he matures.

WIthin a few months of the 2012 season, there may be a few more names in consideration, as 2011 first-round picks Francisco Lindor of the Indians and Javier Baez of the Cubs make their professional debuts, but it will be tough for either to surpass Machado and Profar unless one of them falters.

What we're seeing right now is a swoon of big-time shortstop prospects in the upper minors.

 

Q:  It's fantasy baseball time!  I'm in a long-term keeper league and need a starting pitcher.  Who would you recommend between Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner?

-Dave in Appleton, WI

MLBPW:  It depends on whether you need a pitcher for this year or down the road.  Miller is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling, but he's further away than Turner.  There's a good shot that Turner could be the Tigers 5th starter this year.  Miller will be in Spring Training with the Cardinals, but they don't have a spot in their rotation for Miller this year.  In addition, Miller spend the second half of the season in Double-A, and has made just 16 starts at that level.  Turner started 2011 at Double-A, made 17 starts there, then made three in Triple-A and three more in the majors.  Miller could start the year in Double-A and finish it in Triple-A, or start in Triple-A and spend the entire season there, but it's unlikely he makes more than a start or two in the majors in 2012, if he makes any at all.  He is the better pitcher, however, and profiles as a true ace, while Turner should wind up being a number two or three starter.

Prospect Potent Potables - Castro, Familia, Lake, Yankees, Royals

• The White Sox hope that newly acquired prospect Simon Castro proves to be a manageable reclamation project, notes Mark Gonzales of BaseballAmerica.com, who also notes that the Sox have made a $250,000 investment in 17-year-old RHP Luis Martinez out of Venezuela.
• Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin were acquired together by the Padres at last year's trade deadline, and Corey Brock of MLB.com suggests that both could make it to the majors this season.
• After a long 2011 season and a trip to the DL, the Mets didn't let Jeurys Familia pitch a lot in the Dominican Winter League this off-season, but as Andy McCullough points out for Baseball America, they still let him pitch a few innings to get him some experience coming out of the bullpen.
• Junior Lake may have tore up the Arizona Fall Leauge, but the Cubs' prospect's game is still largely hit or miss, says Mike Newman for FanGraphs.com.
• George King of Baseball America points out how Yankees pitching prospects Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos are actually further away from the majors than they were this time last season, despite positive development since that time.
• The Royals have an array of prospects and veterans attending camp as non-roster invitees, and Paul Thompson of KingsofKauffman.com breaks down the chances all of them have of making the team's Opening Day roster, giving pitching prospect Mike Montgomery the best chance of all.

Prospect Potent Potables - Rockies Invites, Brentz, Cosart, Galvis, Concepcion

• The Colorado Rockies have announced their non-roster invites to spring training, notes Thomas Harding of MLB.com.  Position players Nolan Arenado, Tim Wheeler and Kent Matthes will be in attendance, as well as pitchers Alex White and Drew Pomeranz.
• Mike Newman of FanGraphs.com breaks down Red Sox OF prospect Bryce Brentz, who had a monster 2011 season but doesn't profile as a dynamic player at the next level.
• Jarred Cosart should begin the 2012 season in Double-A, but he's been working out this off-season in the big-league park of his new organization, the Houston Astros, having grown up practically in it's back yard, reports Brian McTaggart for HoustonAstros.com.
• Now that the Phillies have re-signed Jimmy Rollins to a long-term deal, Freddy Galvis' path to the big-leagues is blocked, points out Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.  But that still gives the Phillies the option of using him in the majors this year as a back-up infielder, a role best suited to his current abilities, or sending him back down to the minors to see if his bat develops.
• The Cubs have signed Gerardo Concepcion, an 18-year-old LHP who defected from Cuba last June, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.  The team has reportedly signed a multi-year major league deal with the club.