MLB Prospect Watch

Link: Bastardo Sharp in DWL, Slated for Bullpen

Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. was quoted as saying that LHP Antonio Bastardo has been "pitching very well" this winter in the Dominican, reports Jason Weitzel of Beerleaguer.com, a Phillies blog.  Despite his strong performance this winter, however, Amaro made it clear that Bastardo's home next season will be in the Phillies' bullpen rather than in their rotation.

Bastardo had some initial success in the Phillies' rotation last season, including a solid start in San Diego, but his two-pitch mix is better suited for the bullpen and his reputation has been to break down after putting too much into his starts.  The Phillies believe he will hold up better in the bullpen, and hope Bastardo can fill in for J.C. Romero, the Phillies left-handed set-up man who had surgery this off-season and is likely to miss part of the 2010 season.

Link: Home to 1st Times from AFL

Adam Foster over at Project Prospect has posted home to 1st times for all of the hitters he scouted in the Arizona Fall League, along with the scouting rubric used by Major League Baseball to determine the 20-80 speed rankings on the scouting scale.  As Adam warns, take the data and its small sample size with a grain of salt, but it's interesting information to see nonetheless.

Link: Interview with Brewers' Lucroy

Jonathan Lucroy, the Milwaukee Brewers top catching prospect and one of the possible solutions to their catching vacancy, sat down with Jim Breen of the blog Bernie's Crew for an interview.  Lucroy is the best in-house option for the Brewers at catcher, unless they re-sign FA Jason Kendall, but the Brewers may elect to sign a one-year place holder until they decide Lucroy is ready to take over the catching duties full-time.  Lucroy batted .267/.380/.418 at Double-A last season, his highest level reached, and also participated in the Arizona Fall League.

Link: A Big Year for Cards' Greene?

Is this the year Cardinals' shortstop Tyler Greene carves out a permanent spot on the big league roster?  Well, the guys over at Future Redbirds think so. 

"If you decide to look down the road a year or so, it’s well within reason to think that something did click offensively.  To think that maybe he could get the OBP into a tolerable rante (.320-.330) for the majors and offset that with secondary skills like baserunning, defense and power.

--snip--

The upside, given the diversity of Greene’s skillset, is significant.  Don’t be surprised if he supplants Brendan Ryan as the Cardinals’ shortstop in the future."

While it is probable for Greene to stick with the big club this year (depending on what the Cardinals do in free agency), any assent to the starting spot by Greene will be caused as much by a lack of production by Ryan and a lack of patience from manager Tony LaRussa as anything else.  Greene can stillbe a nice player, but it is unlikely to think that his .291/.369/.482 line in his second stint in Triple-A is a reason think that something "clicked" for for the 25-year-old Greene.

For Greene to really enhance his value to the Cardinals, he should pack a bunch of different gloves for Spring Training.

Link: Are the Reds' Hitting Prospects Unlucky?

Doug Gray at the blog RedsMinorLeagues.com has posted an article theorizing that some of the Cincinnati Reds' positional prospects are having a bit of hard luck when it comes to balls in play falling in for hits.  The article argues that, because a number of the Reds' prospects (specifically those in the low minors) play in hitter-unfriendly parks and because some have a below-average BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), their stat lines do not necessarily reflect their on-field performance.  Specifically, his data "explains" the poor 2009 seasons by Neftali Soto and Alex Buchholz.

Color me skeptical.  While it is essential to look at trends to make sure the stats you are using to analyze a player are telling you what you think they are, it is not as simple as simply adjusting the stats "for luck" and assuming that your new figures are a more accurate description of a player's performance.  Yes every stat line for a hitter in the Florida State Leauge should be accompanied with a warning label about the league's overall OPS of .684, but that doesn't mean that every hitter who struggled should be bailed out with a formula.  The Reds' top prospect, Yonder Alonso, hit .303/.383/.497 in a half-season in the FSL.  He wasn't luckier than his teammates, he was just better.

Players like Soto and Buchholz are probably in line for a slightly better set of slash numbers if they move up to the Double-A Southern League (ave. 2009 OPS of .711), but they are also likely to improve if they try their hand at the FSL again.  And it won't be due to luck.