MLB Prospect Watch

Are the Orioles Rushing Kevin Guasman?

The Baltimore Orioles are planning to promote pitching prospect Kevin Gausman on Thursday, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports.  The move comes as a surprise, given that Orioles GM Dan Duquette said a week ago that Gausman was not a candidate to be called-up to fill one of the spots in their rotation.

Which is what scares me about this move.  Having not had a chance to see Gausman in person this season, I can't tell you first hand whether or not he's ready to face major league hitters.  I can only go off of what others say, and that can be dangerous.  For instance, Jason Churchill of ESPN.com tweeted that scouts he talked to earlier this season didn't think Gausman was ready.  On the other hand, J.D. Sussman of FanGraphs.com recently posted a scouting report calling for the Orioles to make exactly this move.  And I know J.D. and respect his opinion.

But the Orioles' change of heart begs the question - what was their thinking and why did their mind change?

A win on Tuesday evening ended a six game skid for the Orioles, and with vacancies in their rotation, Gausman is probably their best option.  With a 3.11 ERA and a 2.44 FIP in Double-A this season, Gausman has left little doubt that he's ready for a step up, and with his exceptional control (just under one walk per nine innings), he's at a low risk to self-combust if asked to make a jump to the majors.  Additionally, he's the top prospect in an otherwise barren farm system.

But all of that was true a week ago.  Was the Orioles recent losing streak really enough to change their mind?

If the issue a week ago was financially-related - in that they intended to hold him back past the Super-2 deadline but after six straight losses decided that it was worth the extra money they'll spend with that extra arbitration year to help right the ship now - then I'm ok with the decision.  A change in financial strategy can be dictated by wins and losses on the field.

But if the Orioles internal evaluation was that Gausman wasn't quite ready for the majors, yet after a week of losses the Orioles decided that, ready or not, he was still their best option, then I'm not as sold.  The Orioles are competing this season, and Gausman at even 75 percent of his potential may be their best option, but rushing their only healthy impact prospect in a panic mode could cost them.  If Gausman is close, but not quite there, then a handful of additional minor league starts (perhaps at the Triple-A level) could be all he needs to be a truly impact pitcher down the stretch, a la Matt Harvey after his promotion last season.  Calling him up before he's completely ready could leave them with an average pitcher for four months instead of an above-average one for two-and-a-half.

But again, I don't know the Orioles thinking.  I hope that they felt he was ready all along and were trying to hold him back for financial reasons instead of rushing him to the majors in a panic move.  If that's the case, they I applaud them for being willing to take on extra salary down the road to make a run at things now.  But if this is because they're out of decent pitching options, then it concerns me, whether Gausman is ready or not, that the Orioles changed their developmental philosophy on their top prospect based on a bad week of results at the major league level.

Gausman should be able to hold his own either way because of his exceptional control and power arsenal, but we have to hope that by calling him up now instead of in a month or two, the Orioles aren't costing themselves a chance at getting an exceptional finished product for a stretch run.

Injury Update: Schoop, Graham

Schoop Strains Back

The Baltimore Orioles have placed Jonathan Schoop on the 7-day DL with a back strain, reports Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun, who notes that the "injury isn't expected to be serious."

Schoop has spent the entire 2013 in Triple-A, hitting .268/.331/.368 on the season.  I noted before the year that this was a make-or-break year for Schoop to prove that he could hit right-handed pitching more consistently, but even after a strong fall league and a solid World Baseball Classic, he still has yet to prove he can consistently hit same-handed pitching.

So far this season in a limited sample of games, Schoop has kept with his career trends:

 

Split	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP as RHB	33	110	101	26	3	0	3	11	7	19	.257	.318	.376	.694
vs LHP as RHB	19	34	30	9	3	0	0	9	3	7	.300	.382	.400	.782

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2013.

The limited sample from this year wouldn't be enough to make the determination on it's own, but when pared with his totals from last year's dramatic splits...

Split	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs RHP as RHB	121	387	339	74	16	0	8	41	30	78	.218	.291	.336	.628
vs LHP as RHB	71	168	146	45	8	1	6	22	20	25	.308	.399	.500	.899

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/16/2013.

...it becomes worrisome.

This injury has little to do with his on-field production and shouldn't prohibit the Orioles from calling him up later in the season if they choose to do so, but for now, Schoop will take a week off and rest his ailing back.

 

Braves' Graham Out with Shoulder Issue

The Atlanta Braves have put pitching prospect J.R. Graham on the disabled list with shoulder issue they are calling a strain but really have yet to identify, says Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

Graham left his last start after just two innings, but doctors were unable to identify what in his right shoulder was giving him issues.  Due to the ambiguity of his injury, there is no current timetable for his return.

It's logical to question how long Graham has been having issues with his shoulders, given his struggles over his last two starts.  Graham hadn't been dominant all year, but prior to his seventh start on the season in May 8th, he had a 3.41 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 29 innings.  In his two starts since then, however, he struck out just three batters in seven innings.  Obviously the sample size is ridiculously small, but a drop in strikeout rates can sometimes be due to a drop in velocity which could be due to discomfort in his shoulder.

Of course, it could also just be a coincidence.

Either way, Graham is out for the time being until the Braves can get a better grip on what is wrong with his arm.  Given that it's a shoulder issue, the Braves will likely handle him conservatively, especially until they can figure out exactly what is causing his discomfort.

Cole, Gausman Not Ready for Majors

We're getting to that time of the season where the anticipation of prospect call-ups begins to swell, especially for those moves we know are inevitable.  After all, the savior-in-waiting everyone knows is going to be the missing piece for said team is just too exciting to think about.

But for two of the games top pitching prospects, that time is not now.

Forget service time for a second, Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman simply aren't ready for their time in the majors just yet.

Cole is closer than Gausman.  As Tim Williams of PiratesProspects.com points out, Cole's time in Triple-A this season was thought to be more of a formality than anything with any actual substance.  It was thought to be nothing more than a place to stay loose while waiting for the Super 2 barrier of his service time to pass by, like a race car forced to idle in pit row for speeding through too quickly.

But a funny thing happened while Cole was idling in Indianapolis - he struggled.  It turns out, he had a few more things to learn before he came to save the day in Pittsburgh.

As Williams illustrates, Cole is struggling with his command in the International League and isn't missing bats the way he should with his stuff.  This isn't a new problem for Cole (although his high walk numbers this season are a new, and likely temporary, blip on the radar), but I pointed out almost a year ago while scouting Cole in his Double-A debut that he failed to dominate his competition the way he should with his ability.

Cole is having a strange season, with increased walk numbers, dramatically lowered strikeout numbers, yet an ERA of just 2.55 thanks to a fortunate BABIP of just .230 and a strand rate of 83.7 percent.  Neither of those last two numbers is sustainable, hence his 4.45 FIP, easily a career high.

The Pirates probably won't hesitate to call Cole up in a month or so, although if his struggles continue, the Pirates likely won't be forced, thanks to a number of additional starting pitching options in addition to their current rotation.

The Orioles, on the other hand, don't have that type of depth.  Thanks to injuries, their already relying on Freddy Garcia and Jair Jurrjens in their rotation, a plan that doesn't seem likely to end well.  There was speculation that Gausman would be called up to take one of the open spots in the Orioles rotation, but Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun says that he's not being considered.

Which is probably the correct decision.  It's not that Gausman hasn't pitched well, but he still has just 12 professional starts to his name after just two seasons at LSU.

Like Cole, however, it's not incorrect to believe that Gausman could be in the majors at some point this season, although Cole should beat him by a few months.  Gausman could help the Orioles down the stretch if the organization stretches his innings out properly over the course of the year and isn't forced to shut him down early.  Bu September, he could be one of the only healthy Orioles pitchers left, in addition to being one of the most talented.

But for now, Gausman won't be heading to the majors, seemingly no matter how desperate the pitching situation gets in Baltimore.

Prospect Action - 5/13/13

Triple-A

• Jonathan Schoop's three-hit day, which included his third home run of the season, was just a part of the offensive onslaught put forth by his Orioles teammates in their 14-1 drubbing on Sunday.  Schoop is now hitting .349 over his past 10 games, but still just .268 on the season.
• Nick Franklin hit a go-ahead home run in the 13th inning to seal the deal for his Mariners teammates on Sunday.  For Franklin it was part of a 3.for-6 day that saw his batting average rise to .349 as he continues to make his case for a call-up.
• On a home run-filled afternoon, A's outfielder Michael Choice hit his eighth blast of the year while Brewers outfielder Khris Davis hit a pair of bombs.

Double-A

• Anthony Rendon had a perfect game at the plate, one which included his fourth home run of the season, and the Nationals prospect is now hitting .452 (14-for-31) since his return to the minors.
• Jesus Aguilar hit his fourth home run of the season as part of a day in which he reached base three times.  The Indians first base prospect has struggled to carry his 2012 success over into the Double-A level this year and is slugging just .381 on the season.
• Anthony Ranaudo advanced to 5-1 on the season as the Red Sox prospect tossed six shutout innings while striking out five.  The outing lowered his ERA to 1.38 on the season.
• On-base magician Mike O'Neill reached safely three more times on Sunday, collecting a pair of hits and a walk.  The Cardinals outfielder is now hitting .340 on the season with a .489 on-base percentage.

High-A

• Clayton Blackburn struggled for the third straight start as the Giants prospect allowed five runs (four earned) in four innings.  Blackburn has now allowed at least four runs in three consecutive outings after not allowing more than two in any of his first four starts.
• Tyler Naquin hit his third home run of the season.  The Indians outfielder is now hitting .291/.346/.454 on the season.
• After struggling in Triple-A this season and Double-A last season, Angels prospect Orangel Arenas is back in the California League and turned in a dominant start in his first outing, allowing just one run in seven innings.

Low-A

• In a crazy offensive day, the Twins got impressive performances at the plate from two of their top picks from last year's draft.  Byron Buxton, the second overall pick, went 4-for-7 to raise his batting average to .352 on the year, but he was outdone by third-rounder Adam Brett Walker, who went 4-for-6 with two doubles and two home runs.
• Cubs first baseman Rock Shoulders continues to display his power, hitting a grand slam on Sunday, his eighth home run of the season.

 

Prospect Action - 5/5/13

Triple-A

• Zack Wheeler put together the best start of his season, throwing six shutout innings and walking just one, according to Jonathan Raymond of MiLB.com.  Wheeler has now put together back-to-back solid starts after struggling to begin the year.
• Dellin Betances threw five no-hit innings on Sunday, reports Ashley Marshall of MiLB.com, but true to form for the Yankees right-hander, he walked four in the outing.  It was a season-high in walks for Betances, who has given out 16 free passes in 24 innings.
• A two-run double for Mike Zunino proved to be the difference on Sunday, notes The Seattle Times.  The Mariners catcher got off to a hot start at the beginning of the season, but is just 3-for-30 over his past eight games.
• Jake Odorizzi and his Rays teammates combined on a no-hitter on Sunday, says Jake Seiner of MiLB.com.  Odorizzi struck out three and walked four in the outing, lowering his ERA to 2.65 on the season.

Double-A

• Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson, often times over-shadowed within his own organization, broke out of a early-season slump on Sunday with a 4-for-6 day at the plate that included a home run, notes Raymond.
• Aaron Northcraft lowered his ERA to 3.46 on Sunday with five scoreless innings and six strike outs.  The Braves prospect broke out last season in the Carolina League, but has alternated good starts with poor ones so far in the Southern League.
• Kevin Gausman dropped to 1-4 on the season despite allowing just two runs in seven innings of work.  The Orioles 2012 first-rounder has now allowed two earned runs or less in his last three starts.

High-A

• Domingo Tapia threw six innings of two-hit ball, reports Seiner,  lowering the Mets right-hander's ERA to 2.23 on the season. Tapia has been strong this season in his second year in full-season ball, striking out 28 batters in 32 1/3 innings.
• Giants slugger Angel Villalona hit his sixth home run of the season and now has his batting average up to .214 thanks to 11 hits in his last 10 games.
• Gregory Polanco raised his batting average to .321 on the year with a 3-for-5 day at the plate that included a double and a home run.  The Pirates outfielder is now slugging .486 on the season and also has 10 steals.

Low-A

• Twins prospect Jose Berrios advanced to 3-0 on the season after striking out eight batters in six innings of work.   The 2012 first-round pick now sports a 2.55 ERA on the season with 21 strike outs in 17 2/3 innings.
• Tyrell Jenkins threw a complete game shutout on Sunday, lowering his ERA to 4.97 on the season.  The Cardinals prospect needed just 97 pitches to complete the outing.