MLB Prospect Watch

MLB Prospect Watch Inbox - 2/5/12

Here at MLB Prospect Watch, we want to answer the prospect questions that you have.  After all, we're here for you.  So any time you have a prospect question, just send it to us using the Submit a Question tab on the navigation bar above.  When we get enough questions to make an entire post out of it, we'll answer them.  

 

Q:  If you could only have one of them, which of the Pirates stud pitching prospects would you rather have?  Jameson Taillon or Gerrit Cole?

 -James in Renfrew, PA

MLBPW:  Thanks for the lob to start with, James.  Geez.  Luckily the Pirates don't have to pick between the two because it wouldn't be an easy choice.  Cole has yet to throw a professional pitch, so that always makes him a riskier choice, but just given his age and the fact that even though he hasn't appeared professionally yet, he's still much closer to the majors than Taillon.  That's really the only difference between the two at this point - age and proximity to the majors.  They are both immensely talented, although Cole does throw a little harder, and his off-speed stuff is a little more refined.  But that's to be expected.  Don't be shocked to see Taillion in a few years exactly where Cole is now.

 

Q:  Who is the best shortstop prospect in the game today?

 -Jaquan in Oakland, CA

MLBPW:  There's a couple different ways to answer this question.  The best defensive shortstops are probably Freddy Galvis of the Phillies and Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox, but there are serious questions about whether either one will hit enough to play full-time, especially Galvis.  So they can't be considered the best shortstop prospects in the game.  There are also some serious prospects that are shortstops right now, but will never play shortstop in the majors, like Miguel Sano of the Twins, who's already playing as much third base as he is shortstop.  So in order to answer this question, I'm only going to consider prospects who are going to stick at shortstop and be good enough to play every day.

There two shortstops in the minors right now that have separated themselves from the rest.  Manny Machado had a tremendous first full season in the Orioles system, playing well enough at short to make people believe he can stick there and hitting well, especially before a mid-season knee injury.  He's among the best already, and is only in A-ball.  Jurickson Profar is even younger than Machado, but had a great 2011 season, posting an .893 OPS in Low-A ball as an 18-year-old.  The Rangers love his power/speed combo (57 extra-base hits and 23 steals) and his plate discipline (65 walks to 63 strike outs) and believe he will be more consistent with his glove as he matures.

WIthin a few months of the 2012 season, there may be a few more names in consideration, as 2011 first-round picks Francisco Lindor of the Indians and Javier Baez of the Cubs make their professional debuts, but it will be tough for either to surpass Machado and Profar unless one of them falters.

What we're seeing right now is a swoon of big-time shortstop prospects in the upper minors.

 

Q:  It's fantasy baseball time!  I'm in a long-term keeper league and need a starting pitcher.  Who would you recommend between Shelby Miller and Jacob Turner?

-Dave in Appleton, WI

MLBPW:  It depends on whether you need a pitcher for this year or down the road.  Miller is the better pitcher and has a higher ceiling, but he's further away than Turner.  There's a good shot that Turner could be the Tigers 5th starter this year.  Miller will be in Spring Training with the Cardinals, but they don't have a spot in their rotation for Miller this year.  In addition, Miller spend the second half of the season in Double-A, and has made just 16 starts at that level.  Turner started 2011 at Double-A, made 17 starts there, then made three in Triple-A and three more in the majors.  Miller could start the year in Double-A and finish it in Triple-A, or start in Triple-A and spend the entire season there, but it's unlikely he makes more than a start or two in the majors in 2012, if he makes any at all.  He is the better pitcher, however, and profiles as a true ace, while Turner should wind up being a number two or three starter.

Prospect Potent Potables - Orioles, Montero, Frazier

• The Orioles have been linked as possible trade candidates with just about every low-end veteran that's reportedly on the trading block, but as Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun points out, they don't have a lot to trade that they're willing to part with.  Connolly mentions Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes as the only realistic trade pieces among the Orioles top prospects.  If the team can't get significant return or significant improvement in an area of need (which, for those prospects they probably can't), then I don't see how a trade makes sense.  The Orioles aren't close to competing in the AL East, and giving up a prospect with any kind of upside for a marginal starter or middle reliever isn't the way to build long-term.
• Jesus Montero's power potential is even more valuable now than it would have been a decade ago, which is why the Mariners were willing to part with such a young, talented pitcher in order to get him, says Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.  Stone quotes scouts that even say that young position players are becoming more difficult to develop than young pitching, which, if true, and given the Mariners staple of young pitchers, makes the move a good fit for the Mariners even more.
• Todd Frazier's best chance to make the Reds roster this spring is his versatility, but the team has signed other versatile players Wilson Valdez and Willie Harris, potentially bocking Frazier's path, notes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.  While Valdez and Harris have veteran experience, Frazier can duplicate all of their versatility in one player, and has more power potential than either one.  At 26, if Frazier isn't ready for the majors, he may never be.
• I wrote a piece for MLB Depth Charts discussing which of the top prospects in the game will make their team's Opening Day roster, including Montero, Matt Moore, Bryce Harper, Jacob Turner, Shelby Miller, Mike Trout, and Trevor Bauer.

Prospect Potent Potables - Angels, Sanchez, Orioles, Cubs Invites

• Sam Miller of The Orange County Register cites a Baseball Prospectus article (subscription needed) that breaks down the things that could go wrong with the Angels top prospects.  Miller's article has the quote on Mike Trout, explaining his potential troubles against right-handed pitching, based on his struggles in the majors last season.
• Pirates C prospect Tony Sanchez apparently had another off-the-field incident, occurring during the instructional season in Florida this past fall, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  Sanchez allegedly broke his jaw in a bar fight, although he was not hurt a few weeks later at a team mini-camp.  Sanchez has already had jaw issues, missing much of the 2010 season after breaking his jaw getting hit by pitches.  He also was suspended for three games last season after ripping umpires on his Twitter feed.
• The Orioles have announced their second South Korean high school signing in the past week, inking Seong-Min Kim, a 18-year-old left-handed pitcher, reports Jordan Tuwiner of Orioles-Nation.com.  Just two days ago, the team announced the signing of 17-year-old South Korean lefty Kim Sung-min.
• The Cubs have announced their spring training invites, says Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.  Among the prospects invited are outfielders Brett Jackson and Jae-Hoon Ha, and pitchers Jay Jackson, Trey McNutt, and Dae-Eun Rhee.

Prospect Potent Potables - Cron, Pomeranz, Orioles

• C.J. Cron tore it up at the plate in his professional debut before his season ended due to a knee injury, but as Bill Plunkett reports for Baseball America, the Angels prospect is back on track to be ready for the season.
• Unlike last spring with the Indians, this year Drew Pomeranz is entering Rockies spring training with a chance to win a spot in a big league rotation, notes Thomas Harding of MLB.com.  Pomeranz will be competing with a crowded field for a spot, but may be the most talented pitcher in the field.
• The Orioles have made their first venture into the international market under new GM Dan Duquette, signing 17-year-old LHP Kim Sung-min, reports Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun.

Prospect Potent Potables - Snyder, Turner, Vitters

• The Baltimore Orioles have essentially sold Brandon Snyder to the Rangers, trading the first base prospect to the reigning American League Champions for cash considerations, reports Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.  Snyder is no longer a true prospect, having never really taken off with the bat despite finding a home defensively at first base.  With the Orioles logjam at first base, there was little room for Snyder to get at-bats, but depending on the cash return, it still seems like they could have gotten a player in return.  For the Rangers, Snyder could see time as a platoon partner with left-handed hitting Mitch Moreland.
• The Detroit Tigers have let it be known that top prospect Jacob Turner is not untouchable for the right trade offer, notes Jason Beck of MLB.com.  Turner is slated to compete for the team's fifth starter position this spring, and it appears the team would only deal him for a starting pitcher in return.
• Carrie Muskat of MLB.com discusses the possibility of Josh Vitters over-taking Ian Stewart for the Cubs third base job this spring.  Stewart joined the team via trade this off-season and it will be his starting job to lose at the hot corner, but if he struggles and Vitters hits this spring, the depth chart could certainly change.