MLB Prospect Watch

Link: Are the Reds' Hitting Prospects Unlucky?

Doug Gray at the blog RedsMinorLeagues.com has posted an article theorizing that some of the Cincinnati Reds' positional prospects are having a bit of hard luck when it comes to balls in play falling in for hits.  The article argues that, because a number of the Reds' prospects (specifically those in the low minors) play in hitter-unfriendly parks and because some have a below-average BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), their stat lines do not necessarily reflect their on-field performance.  Specifically, his data "explains" the poor 2009 seasons by Neftali Soto and Alex Buchholz.

Color me skeptical.  While it is essential to look at trends to make sure the stats you are using to analyze a player are telling you what you think they are, it is not as simple as simply adjusting the stats "for luck" and assuming that your new figures are a more accurate description of a player's performance.  Yes every stat line for a hitter in the Florida State Leauge should be accompanied with a warning label about the league's overall OPS of .684, but that doesn't mean that every hitter who struggled should be bailed out with a formula.  The Reds' top prospect, Yonder Alonso, hit .303/.383/.497 in a half-season in the FSL.  He wasn't luckier than his teammates, he was just better.

Players like Soto and Buchholz are probably in line for a slightly better set of slash numbers if they move up to the Double-A Southern League (ave. 2009 OPS of .711), but they are also likely to improve if they try their hand at the FSL again.  And it won't be due to luck.

Transactions: 5/17-5/23

Baseball America breaks down all the transactions from the past week by organization.  Some of the highlights include:

• Anthony Swarzak (MIN), Gio Gonzalez (OAK), John Mayberry, Jr. (PHI), Reid Brignac (TB), and Ross Detwiler (WAS) being recalled by their big league clubs.
• Gordon Beckham (CWS), Jordan Walden (LAA), and Logan Schafer (MIL) coming off the 7-day DL.
• Alex Buchholz (CIN) and Dellin Betances (NYY) going on the 7-day DL.
• And Brett Cecil (TOR) being optioned back to Triple-A.

Best and Worst from 5/7

BEST

• Bill Rowell (BAL) - 2-3, HR, SB, batting .302
• Xavier Avery (BAL) - 3-4, 2 R, 2 3B, SB, batting .259
• Alex Buchholz (CIN) - 2-3, 3 RBI, HR, batting .257
• Cale Iorg (DET) - 2-3, 2 HR, batting .198
• Corey Brown (OAK) - 3-5, 4 RBI, 2B, 2 HR, batting .435
• Alex Liddi (SEA) - 3-4, 2B, HR, SB, 2 RBI, batting .380
• Brett Wallace (STL) - 3-5, batting .283
• Jarrod Parker (ARI) - 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 6 K/0 BB, 4.35 ERA
• Troy Patton (BAL) - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 K/1 BB, 0.95 ERA
• Chris Tillman (BAL) - 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 6 K/1 BB, 2.52 ERA
• Jay Jackson (CHC) - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 10 K/1 BB, 4.94 ERA
• Will Inman (SD) - 8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K/1 BB, 3.38 ERA
• Mat Latos (SD) - 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 K/2 BB, 0.00 ERA
• Blake Beavan (TEX) - 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5 K/1 BB, 5.73 ERA

WORST

• Jeff Locke (ATL) - 5 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 2 K/1 BB, 3.77 ERA
• Phillip Humber (MIN) - 3 2/3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 K/2 BB, 5.06 ERA
• Carlos Carrasco (PHI) - 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 3 K/1 BB, 5.46 ERA
• David Price (TB) - 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 K/5 BB, 4.74 ERA

Best and Worst from 4/15

BEST

Gorkys Hernandez (ATL) - 2-4, 2B, SB, batting .393
Josh Reddick (BOS) - 2-4, 2B, batting .400
Ryan Kalish (BOS) - 2-3, HR, 4 R, 2 RBI, batting .350
Josh Vitters (CHC) - 3-4, RBI, batting .357
Alex Buchholz (CIN) - 2-4, R, 2 2B, batting .333
Jason Castro (HOU) - 2-5, 2 R, RBI, 3B, batting .333
Xavier Paul (LAD) - 4-4, 2 RBI, R, 2B, SB, batting .542
Logan Schafer (MIL) - 2-4, HR, batting .375
Ike Davis (NYM) - 3-4, R, RBI, 2B, batting .333
Jason Donald (PHI) - 2-3, 3 R, RBI, 2B, 3B, batting .308
Buster Posey (SF) - 3-3, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2B, 3B, SB batting .462
Angel Villalona (SF) - 2-4, 2B, 2 R, RBI, batting .450
Desmond Jennings (TB) - 1-2, 2 R, 3B, 2 BB, 3 SB, batting .310
Kris Medlen (ATL) - 5 IP, H, 0 ER, 6 K/1 BB, 0.00 ERA
Jake Arrieta (BAL) - 5 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 4 K/ 3 BB, 1.00 ERA
Sean West (FLA) - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K/2 BB, 3.00 ERA
Mike Antonini (NYM) - 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 8 K/ 3 BB, 2.79 ERA
Brad Holt (NYM) - 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER 7 K/1 BB, 8.38 ERA
Kyle Drabek (PHI) - 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 9 K/0 BB, 1.50 ERA

WORST

Devin Mesoraco (CIN) - 0-2, R, batting .059
Nick Weglarz (CLE) - 0-4, 4 K, batting .105
Kyle Weiland (BOS) - 3 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 K/2 BB, 12.71 ERA
Anthony Ortega (LAA) - 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 K/4 BB, 5.59 ERA
Kevin Mulvey (MIN) - 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 K/1 BB, 5.19 ERA
Jared Lansford (OAK) - 1 2/3 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 0 K/5 BB, 12.46 ERA
Tim Alderson (SF) - 4 1/3 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 6 K/ 0 BB, 4.32 ERA
Michael Main (Tex) - 3 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 2 K/3 BB, 10.57 ERA

Prospect Roundup - NL Central (4/10)

Chicago Cubs

• Triple A - Iowa
  • Jeff Samardzija (RP) - 2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 K/2 BB 2 HR
• Double A - Tennessee
  • Tony Thomas (2B) - 1-4, R, RBI
• High A - Daytona
  • Tyler Colvin (DH) - 2-3, R, RBI, BB,
• Low A - Peoria
  • Josh Vitters (3B) - 0-3, R

Cincinnati Reds

• Triple A - Louisville
  • Drew Stubbs (CF) - 0-3, 2 BB
  • Chris Valaika (SS) - 0-4, K
• Double A - Carolina
  • Todd Frazier (LF) - 1-3, 2B, R, RBI, K
• High A - Sarasota
  • Yonder Alonso (1B) - 1-3, HR, 3 RBI
  • Alex Buchholz (SS) - 3-4, 2B, HR, 4 RB, 2 R
    

Houston Astros

• Triple A - Rock Round
  • Drew Sutton (2B) - 1-3, BB, R
  • Brian Bogusevic (CF) - 2-3, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, K
  • Felipe Paulino (SP) - 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K/3 BB
    
• Double A - Corpus Cristi
  • Collin DeLome (LF) - 2-4, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB
• High A - Lancaster
  • Jason Castro (C) - 1-5, 2B, K

Milwaukee Brewers

• Triple A - Nashville
  • Alcides Escobar (SS) - 1-3, R, RBI, 2 BB
  • Mat Gamel (3B) - 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, E
• Double A - Huntsville
  • Jeremy Jeffress (SP) - 3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5 BB/2 K  
  • Jonathan Lucroy (C) - 2-3, HR, R, RBI
    
• High A - Brevard County
  • Logan Schafer (CF) - 0-4, 2 K
• Low A - Wisconsin
  • Cutter Dykstra (CF) - 1-4, K
  • Brett Lawrie (2B) - 0-4, R, K
  • Cody Scarpetta (SP) - 4 IP, 2 H, ER, 8 K/1 BB

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Triple A - Indianapolis
  • Andrew McCutchen (CF) - 2-4, 3B, R, RBI, BB, K
• Double A - Altoona
  • Jose Tabata (CF) - 1-4, R, BB
  • Daniel Moskos (RP) - 1 IP, 2 H, ER, K
• High A - Lynchburg
  • Pedro Alvarez (3B) - 3-4, 2B, HR, 4 RBI
• Low A - West Virginia
  • Chase D'Arnaud (SS) - 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI

St. Louis Cardinals

• Triple A - Memphis
  • Bryan Anderson (C) - 1-3, R, BB
• Double A - Springfield
  • Brett Wallace (3B) - 4-5, 4 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI
• High A - Palm Beach
  • Peter Kozma (SS) - 0-4, 2 K