Any time you are ready to give up on a top prospect, remember Mike Moustakas.
No one knows what kind of career Moustakas is going to have, but this time last year, some people were beginning to form the word "bust" onto a label especially fit for the Royals' 3B prospect. Those same people have probably never tried to hit at Class A WIlmington's Frawley Stadium (a task of which I can personally verify the difficulty). The combination of a cavernous outfield and Moustakas's lack of plate discipline led to .297 on-base percentage and a drop in his power from 22 home runs the year before to 16 last season. His K-to-BB rate also rose from 2-to-1 to 2.8-to-1.
But this season, as Todd Traub of MLB.com reports, Moustakas is displaying all of the attributes that made him the 2rd overall pick in 2007. Sporting a .390/.476/.797 line in Double-A, Moustakas has even refined his plate discipline (large in part to the fear opposing pitchers now have of throwing him a strike) to the point where he has only one more strike out than walk.
The biggest difference is simple though - he's simply squaring up the ball more frequently. His line drive rate is up to a career high of 21.4% after steadily declining since the start of his professional career to a career low last season of only 13%. For a hitter like Moustakas, a LD% in the 20's is not unsustainable, and his corresponding BABIP of .386 on the 2010 season, while elevated due to some good luck on ground balls, is not the sole reason for his inflated stats. Moustakas is no doubt in for some regression (a BABIP of .344 on ground balls would be virtually impossible for a slow-footed power hitter to maintain), but his pure hitting ability should allow him to maintain a high LD rate and therefore a solid-to-above average BA.
Which is good news for Royals' fans who are in desperate need of some optimism.
