MLB Prospect Watch

Picks 31-35

35) Julio Borbon - TEX

• Despite average college numbers in his final season, Borbon went to the Rangers with the 35th overall pick in 2007.  That's what speed will do for you.  Borbon is a lead-off type hitter, and has demonstrated that with the Rangers, primarily in 2008.  Borbon split the season between two hitter friendly leagues (California and Texas), but he also plays in an organization with a hitter friendly ballpark, so you can't fault him for that.  Borbon produced to the tune of .306/.346/.395 in 291 California League at-bats, then came through with a .337/.380/.459 line after his promotion to Double-A.  His plate discipline is lacking (only 29 walks in 546 combined ABs)for someone who relies on speed as much as Borbon does, so at the moment, his ability to get on base and use his speed is dependent on his hitting, and the Rangers would love to see him work his way on-base a little more frequently.  Look for Borbon to head back to the Texas League, where he should start in CF for the RoughRIders, at least for the first half of the season.

34) Todd Frazier - CIN

• Frazier is one of those guys who doesn't do anything extrordinarily well, but does everything good enough.  More importantly, he's a "ballplayer," one of those most glowing compliments you can give a player.  Frazier doesn't have the tools of other players, but he produces, and has thus far at every level.  Through 182 minor league games at 3 different levels, he has produced a line of .300/.378/.506, all while being shuffled around the diamond while the Reds figure out where they want him to play.  Drafted as a shortstop, the Reds don't feel he will be able to maintain the range needed to play the position at the major league level, if he has it now.  He has spent some time at 1B and in LF, but his likely home will end up being 3B, where his bat could still play as above average.  Look for Frazier to get his first taste of Double-A this year, and spend some time all over the infield until the Reds find him a home.

33) Jon Gilmore - ATL

• Gilmore has had to make adjustments his entire time in professional ball, and so far has done so with ease.  The Braves started Gilmore in the Sally League in 2008, during which time Gilmore appeared overmatched, striking out 20 times in 102 at-bats.  When the Appalacian League began play in June, the Braves sent Gilmore there, where he proceeded to lead the league in hits and finished 3rd in batting average.  His 23 doubles also led the league, which demonstrated his future power potential.  The Braves loved his bat speed coming out of high school, and once he packs on a few pounds to his 6'3" 195 lb. frame, many of those doubles could turn into homeruns.  Gilmore also had to adjust to 3B, a position he is still learning after having been a shortstop in high school.  Many players would have been mentally unable to recover after such a disasterous start to their first professional season, but Gilmore showed the mental toughness that will serve him well on his path to the majors.  Look for Gilmore to give the Sally League another try in 2009, and this time he should stay there the entire season.

32) Nicholas Noonan - SF

• The results for Nick Noonan's first full year of professional ball were mixed.  He did jump straight from 52 games in Rookie ball in 2007 to the Low-A Sally League in 2008, which makes his 27 doubles and 29 steals all the more impressive.  His 23/98 BB/K ratio, however, is cause for concern.  If his doubles deveolp into homeruns, than that total becomes more tolerable, but at 6'0" 180 lbs, Nonnan profiles more as a hitter with gap power, meaning he needs to cut that ratio in half to be at maximum production.  Look for Noonan to move up to the High-A California League, where he should be the starting 2B for the San Jose Giants in 2009.

31) Josh Smoker - WAS

• Typically when the phrase Dr. James Andrews is in your scouting report, it's not a good thing, but for Smoker, it actually brings feelings of hope for the young lefty pitching prospect that the Nationals took with the first pick in the 2007 supplemental round.  Smoker was limited by shoulder discomfort for all of 2008, effecting his performance as he tried to pitch through the discomfort.  He visited Andrews and rather than need Tommy John surgery, the doctor simply removed a bone spur removed just last week, and Smoker should be ready for Spring Training.  That's good news for the Nationals who are anxious to see what Smoker can do on the mound, having only seen 48 1/3 innings of his work, most of which can be discarded due to his injury.  Look for the Nationals to gauge Smoker's recovery in the spring and assign him based on his health, which could place him in either the Sally League or the New-York Penn League once it gets under way.

Picks 36-40

40) Kellen Kulbacki - SD

• If the main question surrounding Kulbacki coming out of James Madison University in 2007 was whether his offensive prowess would translate with a wood bat in his hand, then the answer thus far has been a resounding yes.  Kulbacki dominated the college game, but struggled in his only public wood bat demonstration with a poor summer in the Cape Cod League after his remarkable sophomore year.  The Padres took him anyway after a solid Junior year, and Kulbacki is making it seem as though the summer at the Cape was an aberration.  The only problem with Kulbacki in 2008 was keeping him on the field.  He battled sore hamstrings in Spring Training, missed three weeks in August with a sore shoulder, and ended his season by taring his labrum making a diving catch in a playoff game.  In between, however, he was even better than advertised, putting up a line of .332/..428/.589, demonstrating a solid eye at the plate, and striking out only 52 times in 304 at-bats, not a terrible number for a player with his kind of power.  Kulbacki should be recovered from his torn labrum in time for Spring Training, and assuming he is, look for him to play a full season in Double-A San Antonio, with perhaps a late-season call-up in the works.

39) James Adkins - LAD

• Adkins came out of the University of Tennessee with two polished off-speed pitches to make up for an average fastball, and in 2007, he showed why that can be an effective reciepe at the lower levels of the minor leagues, making 11 starts in the Midwest League, and posting a 2.42 ERA, striking out 30 in 26 IP.  His formula, however, did not work quite as well in 2008 in more advanced levels.  He proved to be quite hittable in the hitter-friendly California League (106 hits in 87 2/3 IP) and his off-speed curveball/slider combination didn't fool the more advanced hitters of the Southern League, where he posted a 4.74 ERA, and seemingly lost his command, walking an uncharacteristic 28 batters in 38 IP, nearly double his previous walk rate, which at 3.8/9 IP was too high for someone with his repoitore to get away with in the first place.  Adkins will have to show he can command his pitches better and drastically reduce his walk rate, because with his stuff, he will always give up his hits.  He only made 8 starts at Double-A, so look for him to return to Jacksonville and give it another shot in 2009.

38) Brett Cecil - TOR

• Cecil is another college reliever the Blue Jays are turning into a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, but in this case, the returns thus far have been good.  Cecil has run into little opposition in the minors, posting an ERA below 2.55 in each of his first 3 stops, hitting only a slight speed bump in 6 Triple-A starts, where he posted a 4.11 ERA, but still struck out over a batter per inning.  Cecil's needs now are to continue to increase his stamina and to develop a third pitch to go with his plus fastball/slider combo.  If he can not do so, he can easily slide back into the bullpen and be a dominant reliever.  If he can, then he will fit nicely into the middle of the Jays rotation.  As for 2009, look for Cecil to get a look in Spring Training, but likely he will head to Triple-A, work on his stamina, and make an appearance in the majors sometime later in the year.

37) Travis d'Arnaud - PHI

• Most prep catchers drafted are taken for their bat, with the hopes that their defense will be able to stick, or perhaps that they can be taught well enough to remain behind the plate.  With Travis d'Arnaud, the Phillies have exactly the opposite.  The Phillies liked d'Arnaud's bat, but they made him the 37th overall pick mostly because of his polished defensive skills behind the plate.  While he has thrown out only 19 % of base stealers, the Phillies remain high on his defensive skills.  What they might not have expected is his bat to play as well as it has.  While d'Arnaud hasn't exactly knocked the cover off the ball, he has shown a consistant bat, sporting a .282/.335/.421 line through 105 minor league games at 3 different levels.  He needs to improve his plate discipline (although he demonstrated an average eye at his longest stop in the New York-Penn League), but if he can continue to progress along this path, he will certainly hit well enough to get his plus defensive abilities into play.  Look for d'Arnaud to be the full time catcher for Lakewood in the Sally League in 2009.

36) Clayton Mortensen - STL

• Mortensen was seen as a bit of a reach when the Cardinals took him with the 36th overall pick in 2007, but for the remainder of that year, he made the Cardinals look brilliant, posting a combined 2.67 ERA in 60 2/3 IP between the New York-Penn and Midwest Leagues, striking out 68 batters during that time.  Unfortunately, in 2008, it appears that his early dominance can be chalked up to simply being further deveolped than his Short-Season and Low-A Ball competitors.  The Cardinals have to be worried about this alarming trend - Mortensen's ERA by level:  SS (1.77); Low-A (3.12); Double-A (4.22); Triple-A (5.51).  Also worrysome is his K/9 ratio by level:  SS (10.1); Low-A (10.1); Double-A (7.2); Triple-A (6.4).  Those are bad trends.  Mortensen could start back in either Double or Triple-A for St. Louis in 2009.

Picks 41-45

45) Justin Jackson - TOR

• So far in his short pro career, Jackson has proven the Blue Jays right with his glove, but wrong with his bat.  Overlook his 26 errors in 2008, scouts love his polish at shortstop ans his arm strength.  At the plate, he has demonstrated gap power (26 2B, 6 3B in 121 games in Low-A), but unfortunately, also an uncanny ability for striking out.  He showed an ability to take a walk (62 BB) but struck out 154 times, leading to a .238 BA, but an almost respectable .340 OBP.  If he can refine his hitting to the point where he can put a few more balls in play and use his speed, he will become an effective enough hitter to be a major league shortstop.  Expect him to move up to High-A Dunedin in 2009 after having spent all of 2008 in the Midwest League.

44) Neil Ramirez - TEX

• The results thus far have been good for the Rangers and their pick of prep righty Ramirez, if only he can stay healthy.  Ramirez missed some time during his senior year of high school, battled injuries early in 2008 and then ended his season early when he broke his hand slamming it in a door.  In between, however, Ramirez looked like the real deal.  In 44 IP in the Northwest League, he struckout 52 batters and gave up only 25 hits.  He did walk 29 batters though.  The Rangers hope better control will come with more experience.  There should be no lingering effects from his broken hand since he has had the entire off-season to recover.  The Rangers would like to increase Ramirez's workload and see if he can make a full season's worth of starts.  Look for that to happen at Low-A Clinton.

43) Jackson Williams - SF

• When the Giants drafted Williams with the 43rd overall pick, they did so knowing his reputation as one of the best defensive catcher in the draft, but also his reputation of being a lightweight with the bat.  At this point, calling Williams a lightweight is an insult to lightweight boxers everywhere.  Over the course of 442 ABs between 3 levels in 2007 and 2008, Williams has hit .213 and has only 25 extra-base hits.  He has also struck out over 20 % of the time he stepped to the plate.  It appears even his ceiling of being an average hitter is now out of reach.  His defensive performance has been as strong as expected, with Williams throwing out 44% of base stealers, but if he never hits, he profiles as a career backup catcher at best, and even that will require some improvement at the plate.  The real question is was it worth a Supplemental 1st round pick on a player who had the possibility of never being able to hit at the major league level, regardless of his skills as a catcher?

42) Eddie Kunz - NYM

• You've likely heard of Kunz for a number of reasons.  He was a major part of the Oregon State bullpen that helped the Beaver's win the 2006 NCAA College World Series.  He plays for an organization based in New York.  And he's already made it to the major leagues.  While his 2 2/3 innings with the Mets were less than what he had hoped (13.50 ERA), Kunz will likely be a significant part of the Mets 2009 bullpen after having been on the same fast track that many college relievers are put on upon reaching the minor leagues.  Kunz's career minor league ERA of 3.95 is unspectacular at best, but the majority of his playing time came this season in Double-A, where he was the closer for the Binghamton Mets where he had 27 saves and a 2.79 ERA.  Kunz surrendered only 1 homerun in 66 minor league innings.  With the injury to Billy Wagner, the Mets are in the market for a closer during this off-season.  If they don't shell out the big bucks for Francisco Rodriguez or manage to woo Brian Fuentes to New York, look for Kunz to make a push at the closer's role in Spring Training.

41) Sean Doolittle - OAK

• Any doubts about Doolittle's power potential coming out of the University of Virginia (and there were many) were verified during his brief appearance in 2007 (4 HR's in 239 AB's), but were then shot down by his 2008 performance (25 2B, 18 HR, .560 SLG) in the hitter friendly California League.  How much of his power surge can be attributed to playing in a hitter's haven remains to be seen, but after his 86 game outburst to start 2008, he was bumped up to the Texas League, and reverted back to his power-less days (4 HR's in 201 AB's).  Playing primarily 1B, Doolittle will have to show he has power outside of the California League in order to have any value in Oakland.  He does demonstrate good plate discipline, so he can can be effective without hitting homeruns, but slugging over .400 would be a nice start.  Expect him to head back to Double-A to start 2009.

Picks 46-50

50) Wes Roemer - ARI

• Roemer came out of Cal State Fullerton with three important characteristics in his scouting reports:  He never walks batters, he hits lots of them, and his "stuff" was borderline, but he makes up for it by battling and never giving in.  After a year and a half of pro ball, Roemer has become a living example of why scouts will never be replaced by computers.  The scouting report for Roemer has been dead-on.  He worked briefly in a few relief appearances in 2007 after having led the NCAA in innings pitched during his final college season.  Back as a starter in 2008, Roemer made 28 starts in the hitter-friendly California League, where his already fringy (big-time scout word) stuff didn't exactly fool hitters.  What he did do was not compound his mistake by giving up extra baserunners, walking less than 2 per 9 IP.  He also hit a batter in almost every other start, and according to reports, it wasn;t necessarily by accident.  He uses HBP's the old-fashoned way...to make up for not having enough "stuff"  The scouts were 3 for 3.  His 4.59 ERA was just slightly above the California League average of 4.51, so his performance was not as bad as it seems.  Given that his high WHIP (1.43) was due primarily to the high amount of hits he surrendered (199 in 162 2/3), he could bounce back with a better performance if the Diamondbacks put in him Double-A for 2009, which is his likely destination.

49) Michael Burgess - WAS

• Burgess' Batting Averages by level:  Rookie (Gulf Coast League) - .336; Short-Season (New York-Penn League) - .286; Low-A (South Atlantic League) - .249; High-A (Carolina League) - .225.  Burgess' On-Base Percentages along the same path:  R - .442; SS-.383; Low-A - .335; High-A - .325.  This is an alarming trend if you are a Nationals fan.  A right-fielder at best, Burgess value certainly lies no where else but his bat, so he must hit.  The good news is that when he does hit, he hits with authority.  His most significant portion of playing time came in the Sally League, where he played most of 2008, and managed to slug .469 depsite the above batting and slugging totals.  His 26 doubles and 18 homers while with Hagerstown show why the Nationals still have high hopes.  His 136 strikeouts in 401 at-bats display why he's still no where close to being ready.  Nor should he be, given the fact that he played the whole season at 19 years old.  Look for him play at age 20 in the Carolina League, where better pitching will force him to make adjustments.  If he makes them, look out.

48) Josh Donaldson - OAK (drafted by the Chicago Cubs)

• Donaldson is considered an offensive minded catcher with enough receiving skills to remain behind the plate where his bat will play better.  Originally drafted by the Cubs in 2007, he was a part of the deal to the Oakland A's that brought Rich Harden to the Windy City.  Donaldson has hit at every stop since college, with the exception of the first part of 2008 with Peoria in the Midwest league, where he put up a .217/.276/.349 line.  If that had anything to do with the Cubs being willing to part ways with him, it looks like it will eventually be their loss.  Donaldson's .330/.391/.564 line upon arriving in the California League can be partly attested to the hitter friendly environments that Donaldson got to hit in after the trade, but the 1.075 OPS he put forth in short-season ball in 2007 supports claims that Donaldson can hit anywhere.  The A's don't have to rush Donaldson with incumbant Kurt Suzuki doing a nice job at the major league level, but if Donaldson continues to hit this well at Double-A where he is likely to start the season, he could force the A's hand.  The A's also gave him a brief look at both 3B (where he played for a year in college) and 1B to see if they can find more ways to get him in the lineup, but his likely future remains behind the plate.

47) Nathan Vineyard - NYM

• There's not much of a track record to go on with Vineyard, as he logged only 27 1/3 innings after signing in 2007, and made only 2 starts in 2008 before having season ending shoulder surgery.  He's young (he just turned 20), so he has plenty of time to rehab and get back on track.  Unfortunately, the small sampling of his performance was not good either.  We can ignore the 2008 starts because he was likely hurt at the time, but his 2007 innings showed the ability to miss some bats (33 K's) but also 30 hits and 4 homeruns given up.  Essentially, the Mets have no idea what they have in Vineyard, and now have no idea if he will be healthy.  He could return to game action sometime in 2009 as his surgery was in May of 2008, but don't expect the Mets to push him.

46) Andrew Cumberland - SD

• Cumberland logged only 53 games in 2008 due to time on the DL(and has only 81 games under his belt in his professional career), but his performances thus far have been about what was expected.  He has hit relatively well, but with no power, not terribly surprising given his 5;10" 175 lb. frame.  He has speed that rates as a 70 (on the 20-80 scale), but he needs to get on base more to make use of it.  When he did get on base in 2008 (.348 OBP), he successfully stole 16 of 20 bases.  He's currently still at shortstop, but his performance will have to become more consistant to avoid a move to 2B or CF.  Hopefully healthy for all of 2009, look for Cumberland to return to the Midwest league to get some more seasoning (he'll be 20 in Jaunary), and could seemingly move up to the California League with a strong first half.

Picks 51-55

55) Nick Hagadone - BOS

• Hagadone dominated the New York-Penn League (1.85 ERA, 33 K’s in 24 1/3 IP) in 2007 and appeared to be on a fast track to Boston, if not as a starter than as reinforcements for the Red Sox bullpen. He made three starts in 2008 before hearing a pop in his elbow, followed by a flight to Alabama for a meeting with Dr. James Andrews and his world-famous knife. Hagadone is still very much on the Red Sox radar, and if healthy, should hop back on the fast track to the majors. This injury might cause a move to the back end of the bullpen, but as long as he’s healthy Hagadone’s arm will be a part of the Red Sox future in one form or another.

54) Tommy Hunter – TEX

• Whether due to Hunter’s success, Texas’ lack of pitching, or some combination of the two, Hunter was called upon to make three starts for the big club in August of 2008. They did not go well. Luckily for the Rangers, the 16.36 ERA Hunter sported at the big league level is the only blemish on his short resume thus far. In the minors, Hunter has had success at every level, and has not stayed long at any of them. He disposed of the Northwest League in 2007, making ten relief appearances for Spokane after having been both a starter and closer in college. The 2008 season saw a return to the rotation for Hunter, who made 25 minor league starts spread out over the High-A California League, Double-A Texas League, and Triple-A Pacific Coast League, posting an ERA no higher than 3.78 at any stop. Hunter is well polished and doesn’t walk hitters (which is likely why the Rangers felt comfortable calling him up so quickly), but also doesn’t miss many bats, having struck out only 119 batters in 181 1/3 minor league innings. Given the Rangers lack of starting pitching, Hunter will likely be given a chance to make the rotation out of Spring Training, but having been drafted as a draft-eligible sophomore, he just turned 22 this July and there’s no rush. He could easily start the season back in Triple-A and work towards a mid-season call-up.

53) Kyle Lotzker – CIN

• Lotzker, the 6’4” Canadian right-hander, looked sharp after signing in 2007, making 9 starts between the Gulf Coast league and the Pioneer League with a 36/10 K/BB ratio in 29 IP. Lotzker was demonstrating the same ability to dominate hitters in 2008, striking out 50 batters in 37 2/3 IP in the Low-A Midwest League (but also walked 24), before his season ended due to a broken elbow. Lotzker managed to avoid surgery and appears to be on track so that he doesn’t have to miss any time in 2009. Depending on how his elbow responds, he could start back in the Midwest League or join the Sarasota Reds in the Florida State League.

52) Matthew Mangini – SEA

• Mangini, a third baseman from Oklahoma State, saw time at three different levels after signing quickly in 2007, and put together a combined OPS of .748 while demonstrating good plate discipline. The same can be said for his time repeating High-A ball in the California League, where his second go-round resulted in a .807 OPS in the notorious hitters league, but a promotion to the Double-A Southern League resulted in 238 forgettable at-bats. Mangini posted an OPS of just .495 in Double-A, and lost his plate discipline against better pitching, taking only 12 walks in 238 at-bats. He also strikes out way too much (156 K’s in 566 Minor League at-bats) for a guy with his limited power. He has made 22 errors in 156 games at 3B. It would be shocking if Mangini starts any higher than Double-A in 2009, as it’s clear he needs more time at the level to work on various aspects of his game.

51) Charles Culberson – SF

• Culberson had a decent showing in a half season in the Arizona Instructional League after being drafted in 2007, and the Giants started him in Low-A Aususta in 2008. Culberson struggled out of the gate, and had a line of .130/.193/.221 through the first 23 games. He had a solid June and had an 11 game hitting in the middle of July, but was forced on the DL in early August when he broke his own hand hitting a paper towel dispenser in frustration. His 35 errors in 79 games at shortstop probably didn’t help his cause either.  The Giants wanted Culberson to stay in the same infield as Nick Noonan (32^nd overall in 2007) and top prospect Angel Villalona throughout the minors, but it remains to be seen if Culberson is ready to jump up to the California League or if he needs some more seasoning in 2009 in Augusta.